Conservative continue to outnumber liberals, and by a slightly larger margin than in the recent past. Gallup reports:
The climate of opinion continues to grow toxic for the president. Resurgent Republic reports:
By a 64 to 27 percent margin, likely voters believe that the nation is on the wrong track, a net negative 11 point swing since our last survey in April. This political barometer's widening can be attributed to a shift among Independents and Democrats (largely because Republicans are already in near-unanimous agreement on the need for change). In our most recent survey, 72 percent of Independents say the nation is on the wrong track (up 7 points since April) and 56 percent of Democrats say the nation is headed in the right directio n (down 9 points since April).
The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll this week shows Barack Obama with a negative 45%-48% job rating. But as the Wall Street Journal story notes, Obama’s job rating among black voters is 91% positive. A lttle back of the envelope arithmetic suggests that Obama’s job rating among the 88% or 89% of non-black respondents is about 39% positive and 54% negative.
In this election, the swing states and districts generally have below-average black populations, intensifying the effect of the president's unpopularity.
Though the McChrystal drama has passed, the Afghanistan war continues and signals further political problems for Obama's administration in the fall, even while worries about Iraq appear to be subsiding. The poll found that 46 percent of respondents think America is losing the war in Afghanistan (26 percent say the military is winning). A similar plurality think the U.S. is losing the broader war on terrorism (43 percent vs. 29 percent), though the war in Iraq is seen as a successful effort, with 42 percent saying the U.S. is winning there, compared with 34 percent who say the U.S. is losing. While many factors have contributed to this gradual collapse in public support, the revelations of military-civilian dysfunction that have accompanied the McChrystal fiasco have likely made matters worse....In fact, solid majorities of Americans now disapprove of the way the president is handling almost every major challenge confronting his administration—a complete reversal from only four months ago, when he enjoyed broad public support on the issues.