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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Newt's Prospects in the General Election

Conn Carroll writes at The Washington Examiner:
Unlike Mitt Romney, who occasionally beats President Obama in general election poll match ups, Newt Gingrich trails far behind President Obama in every survey. But just how bad are Gingrich's unfavorable among the general public compared to Obama and Romney?
Not every poll releases their full results, so here are the most recent favorability results I could find for Obama, Romney, and Newt.
Fox News, 1/12-1/14:Obama, fav/unfav, 51%/46%, +5Romney, fav/unfav, 45%/38%, +7Gingrich, fav/unfav, 27%/56%, -29
CBS/NYT, 1/12-1/17:Obama, fav/unfav, 38%/45%, -7Romney, fav/unfav, 21%/35%, -14Gingrich, fav/unfav, 17%/49%, -32
PPP, 1/13-1/17:Obama, app/dis, 47%/50%, -3Romney, fav/unfav, 35%/53%, -18Gingrich, fav/unfav, 26%/60%, -34
America does not love Romney, but boy do they hate Newt.
But he'd triumph in the debates, right?  At The American Thinker, John Ziegler says no.
This scenario, is not just some risk-free fantasy, it is as dangerous as the kid on the top of a building who thinks he can fly because he is wearing a fancy cape. Newt Gingrich would not only fail to crush Obama in a debate, he instantaneously would eliminate any doubt as to the inevitability of the president's reelection.
First of all, there is absolutely zero chance that Obama would agree to the debate format which Newt pretends he could somehow force the sitting president to accept. The only way to dictate the terms of such an event is to be ahead in the polls and to have the media take up your cause to pressure the other side. Newt has about as much chance of either of those things being reality as he does getting his second wife to tape a campaign ad for him.
Quite simply, that isn't happening, and yet absolutely no one ever even bothers to point this out.
Once forced to combat the president in a clash of 60-second sound bites refereed by Obama's politically-correct buddies, Newt's supposedly great debating strengths will backfire badly. In a Republican primary, his haymakers draw cheers from the partisan crowd and the commentators marvel at what a crafty street brawler he is. In a general election debate, the crowd of "independents" will boo and the very same "news" people will suddenly he horrified by the bull who just smashed their china shop to bits.