Search This Blog

Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Sunday, January 27, 2013

2014 Senate Outlook

Tom Harkin (D-IA) has joined Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) at the exit, potentially opening seats for GOP takeover in 2014.  Tim Johnson (D-SD) may be next. James Hohmann and John Bresnahan write at Politico:
These cycles are long, but clearly it’s been a good couple weeks,” said former National Republican Senatorial Committee executive director Rob Jesmer, who just joined FP1 Strategies. “It’s good for the NRSC especially after a disappointing election. This will help with fundraising and jumpstart some enthusiasm that would have taken more time otherwise.”
“An open seat is an open seat. It’s really hard to beat incumbents, so when you get an open seat it automatically vaults a seat up to a level that’s more competitive than it would have been otherwise,” he added. “Iowa was not on the map 48 hours ago, and now it’s on the map. And that’s a big deal.”
Democratic strategists highlight their incumbents who appear likely to run again in red states where retirements could have proved devastating, including Montana’s Max Baucus, Arkansas’ Mark Pryor, Louisiana’s Mary Landrieu, Alaska’s Mark Begich and North Carolina’s Kay Hagan.
In the last decade, only three Democratic incumbents have lost reelection: South Dakota’s Tom Daschle in 2004, along with as Wisconsin’s Russ Feingold and Arkansas’ Blanche Lincoln in 2010. (emphasis added)
There have been many more GOP incumbent losses:

2006

  • Talent (MO)
  • Burns (MT)
  • DeWine (OH)
  • Santorum (PA)
  • Chafee (RI)
  • Allen (VA)
2008

  • Stevens (AK)
  • Coleman (MN)
  • Sununu (NH)
  • Elizabeth Dole (NC)
  • Gordon Smith (OR)
2010

  • Bennett (UT), lost renomination in party convention
2012
  • Lugar (IN) lost renomination in primary
  • Brown (MA)