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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Some Context for CNN Poll Numbers

Poll numbers have not been good for the GOP, but a CNN report hypes the danger.
More than seven in 10 questioned in the survey said that most members of Congress don't deserve to be re-elected, with nearly four in 10 saying even their own representative doesn't deserve a return ticket to Washington next year. Both figures are hovering around all-time highs in CNN polling.
But the actual data tell a different story  The "four in 10" figure refers to all Americans.  Among registered voters, 37% say that their own representative does not deserve reelection while 48% say that their representative does deserve reelection.  Two years ago, the CNN generic reelection figures were much worse for incumbents:  48% not deserve, 46% deserve.  In the 2012 House races, however, the reelection rate was 90 percent, even after redistricting temporarily weakened the incumbency advantage for many lawmakers.

Chapter 5 of After Hope and Change discusses these races in greater detail.