Will the Republican finally wrest control of the Senate from the Democrats? The New York Times fixes the odds of that happening at 2-to-1. But, for the Republicans to make that a reality, they must defeat at least three incumbent senators and take three open seats, while holding on in a hotly contested race in Georgia, and successfully defending Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell from a stiff Democratic challenge.
But if history is a guide, Republican triumph won’t come easy. The last time the GOP unseated more than two incumbents in a single cycle was in 1980. Thirty-four years ago, America elected Ronald Reagan as president, and sent a dozen Democratic senators to an early retirement. Since then, Republicans have demonstrated proficiency at winning open seats, but are remedial when it comes to knocking off incumbents.