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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Saturday, October 3, 2015

Trump Does Not Look Like a Nominee

At Five Thirty-Eight, Harry Enten sums up why Trump is still very unlikely to be the GOP nominee:

enten-datalab-trump2

Henry Olsen adds:

The headlines scream “Trump leads the field.” But the data underneath have always been more problematic for the real-estate mogul. The most recent NBC/WSJ national poll adds fuel to that fire — it shows that 52 percent of GOP primary voters say they cannot see themselves supporting Trump.
This is crucial since states will vote at different times, and as candidates drop out voters in states yet to vote who would have supported them must choose from the remaining people. If a majority of GOP voters say they would never support him, it is very hard to see how Trump can win in the later races.