Nate Silver on why the fundamentals seem to favor Democrats ... so far.
- President Trump’s approval rating is only 37.6 percent.
- Democrats lead by approximately 10 points on the generic Congressional ballot.
- Republican incumbents are retiring at a rapid pace; there were two retirements (from New Jersey Rep. Frank LoBiondo and Texas Rep. Ted Poe) on Tuesday alone.
- Democrats are recruiting astonishing numbers of candidates for Congress.
- Democrats have performed well overall in special elections to the U.S. Congress, relative to the partisanship of those districts; they’ve also performed well in special elections to state legislatures.
- The opposition party almost always gains ground at midterm elections. This is one of the most durable empirical rules of American politics.