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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Sunday, December 16, 2018

Iowa Democrats Are Not Crazy about Clinton or Bloomberg for 2020

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the early stages of the 2016 campaign, when many candidates were unknowns.  We are now in the early stages of the 2020 race.

Preferences and positives mean little in early polls.  Negatives are another matter. At Politico, Steven Shapard writes of the first DMR Iowa caucus poll of the 2020 cycle:

The potential candidate with the highest negatives: Bloomberg, who was elected in New York as a Republican. Forty percent of Democrats view him favorably, while 31 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

One longtime Democratic figure isn’t welcome in the race, however: A large majority of caucusgoers, 72 percent, say 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton would “detract” from the race for president, while only 25 percent say she would add to the race. And roughly as many Democratic voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton (49 percent) as view her favorably (47 percent).

Clinton, who narrowly defeated Sanders in the 2016 caucuses, says she won’t run for president again.

The poll was conducted December 10-13 by West Des Moines-based Selzer & Company. Out of 1,838 registered voters contacted, 455 said they would definitely or probably attend a Democratic caucus in early 2020, for a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.