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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Thursday, January 9, 2020

College America, Warren, and Mayor Pete


Warren has always relied heavily on the Connected Class. That includes doctors and lawyers, but, in general, it's the larger class of college-educated white people. This may, in fact, have been the biggest chunk of her support.
At her Iowa peak, when Warren was leading the field in mid-October, she was getting about 33% of all college graduates according to an Iowa State University poll, while Buttigieg was pulling in about 19%.
Now, Buttigieg is winning the college-educated vote 26% to 24%, according to the Iowa State University poll in December. If you were to screen out those with graduate degrees, and look at those whose highest degree was a bachelor’s (which is about a quarter of the Democratic electorate), we’ve swung from a 14-point Warren lead in October to a 5-point Buttigieg lead at the New Year.

Warren is falling mostly because white, college-educated voters are leaving her for Buttigieg.