College America, Non-College America, and Shifting Party Bases

In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020.

“The GOP is trading soccer moms for Walmart dads.” https://t.co/CgHv5h3YyU

— Bruce Mehlman (@bpmehlman) July 14, 2022

 Nate Cohn at NYT:

For the first time in a Times/Siena national survey, Democrats had a larger share of support among white college graduates than among nonwhite voters — a striking indication of the shifting balance of political energy in the Democratic coalition. As recently as the 2016 congressional elections, Democrats won more than 70 percent of nonwhite voters while losing among white college graduates.

What is your preference for the outcome of the 2022 congressional elections?

Which Party Different Groups of Voters Support

For the first time in a Times/Siena national survey, Democrats won a larger share of white college graduates than nonwhite voters.

Gender

	DEM.	REP.	OTHER/ UNDEC.
Female 52% of RVs	44%	34%	21%
Male 46%	38%	47%	15%

Race

	DEM.	REP.	OTHER/ UNDEC.
White 65% of RVs	37%	47%	17%
White, no coll. 39%	23%	54%	23%
White, coll. 26%	57%	36%	7%
Black 10%	78%	3%	19%
Hispanic 13%	41%	38%	21%
Other 8%	34%	39%	27%

Age

	DEM.	REP.	OTHER/ UNDEC.
Age 18 to 29 16% of RVs	46%	28%	26%
Age 30 to 44 22%	52%	31%	18%
Age 45 to 64 32%	35%	50%	15%
Age 65+ 24%	39%	45%	16%

Education

	DEM.	REP.	OTHER/ UNDEC.
College grad. 35% of RVs	56%	32%	12%
No four-yr. deg. 63%	33%	45%	22%

Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 849 registered voters from July 5-7. All figures are rounded. Some respondents did not provide demographic information.