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Wednesday, December 17, 2025

Moses Supposes Erroneously

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. Trump was a liability for Republicans in the 2025 off-year elections. He could be a bigger liability in the 2026 midterm -- and not just because of his low approval ratings.

Congressional Republicans are in a tough spot. On the one hand, anything bearing Obama's name is toxic to GOP activists. On the other hand, the general public now favors the Affordable Care Act by nearly a two-to-one margin. And about half of those who receive ACA premium subsidies are either self-employed or work for a small business — exactly the kind of voters that marginal Republicans need in a general election.

Emily Brooks at The Hill:
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Wednesday insisted that he has not lost control of the lower chamber of Congress in the wake of four Republican moderates mounting a major rebellion by joining with Democrats to force a vote on extending expiring ObamaCare subsidies.

“I have not lost control of the House, no,” Johnson said when asked about his grip on the chamber following the GOP rebellion.

“We have the smallest majority in U.S. history. These are not normal times,” Johnson said. “There are processes and procedures in the house that are less frequently used when there are larger majorities.”

His comments came shortly after four Republican moderates in swing districts — Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Mike Lawler (N.Y.), Rob Bresnahan (Pa.) and Ryan Mackenzie (Pa.) — signed a petition led by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to extend the expiring enhanced ObamaCare subsidies for three years. That brought the petition to 218 signatures, enough to force a vote on the matter.

That, in turn, came after negotiations between moderates and GOP leaders on a compromise amendment vote to extend the subsidies as part of a separate House GOP health care bill fell apart over the weekend and on Tuesday.