Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments.
Americans have continued to grow more negative about the economy in May, pushing Gallup's Economic Confidence Index to -45, down from -38 in April and the lowest reading since October 2022, when it was identical to now. Still, the current index score is above the recent low of -58 in June 2022 during a period, like now, marked by high inflation and soaring gas prices.A release from the University of Michigan:
Consumer sentiment fell for the third straight month as supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to lift gasoline prices, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
Sentiment is now just below the previous historical trough seen in June 2022. The cost of living continues to be a first-order concern, with 57% of consumers spontaneously mentioning that high prices were eroding their personal finances, up from 50% last month.
Independents and Republicans saw decreases in sentiment, with both groups reaching their lowest readings of the current presidential administration. Meanwhile, sentiment of Democrats was little changed from last month.
“Earlier this year consumers may have reserved judgment about how long the Iran conflict would last,” said U-M economist Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys. “Three months into the conflict, consumers appear to be worried that supply disruptions are unlikely to be resolved quickly. Moreover, consumers are clearly concerned that increases in gas prices will spread to other prices in the economy and that consequences may persist into the long run.”
