Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.
Ben Casselman at NYT:
True, much of the data pointed to strength, or at least stability. Retail sales rose at a healthy pace in September. Filings for unemployment benefits remained low. Industrial output hit a postpandemic high.
But there was no relief on the issue that matters most to many voters, inflation. Consumer prices rose last month at their fastest rate since May, outpacing wage growth for the sixth month in a row. Producer prices, too, came in hot, as did prices for imported goods. And gasoline — the most visible price in the economy, and one that few Americans have any choice about paying — stayed above $4 a gallon nationally, where it has been for most of the past six months.
Little wonder, then, that measures of consumer sentiment have worsened, and that polls show voters are poised to punish Republicans for failing to keep the economic promises they made on the campaign trail two years ago.
The cost of living “is going to be the first issue on the scorecard in 2026,” said John W. Lettieri, president of the Economic Innovation Group, which last week published a survey of voter attitudes on the economy. “The results are not good on that top issue.”
Sahil Kapur at NBC:
Weeks ahead of Election Day, 71% of U.S. adults think the country is on the “wrong track.” It’s the highest share yet in President Donald Trump’s second term, illustrating the grim national mood his party faces in the midterm elections, according to a new NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey.
Poll respondents expressed deep unhappiness over economic conditions and widespread distrust toward both major political parties, but Trump and Republicans bore the brunt. For the first time in Trump’s second term, the poll has found the “right track” sinking into the 20s. A majority of Americans view the president’s administration as uniquely corrupt, even as they look skeptically at corruption in both parties. And they say Trump is failing to improve their material financial conditions.
Dan Balz and Scott Clement at WP:
Two weeks from Election Day, Republicans face a bleak political landscape. President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a new low, and support for Democrats in the race for control of Congress is rising as inflationary pressures contribute to an acrid mood among voters, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.
Trump’s approval among U.S. adults now stands at 33 percent, with 66 percent disapproving; 52 percent said they disapprove strongly. That approval rating is four percentage points lower than in July and eight points lower than at this point last year. Among likely voters, Trump’s approval is 38 percent, with 62 percent disapproving.
The poll also finds that, for the first time in more than a decade, Democrats are seen as more trusted to deal with the economy.
In the competition for control of the House, Democrats hold an eight-point lead among registered and likely voters, an improvement for the party since The Post’s July poll, when the Democratic lead was three points with registered voters.
Trump is central to Republicans’ struggles. In a separate question, the poll asked voters whether they would rather have a Democratic-led Congress acting as a check on Trump or a Republican one to support his agenda. By 58 percent to 39 percent, registered voters said they prefer the Democrats. That margin is roughly double what it was a year ago.
In other words, James Madison still rules America.
