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Monday, November 11, 2024

Crime and California

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

Tim Arrango at NYT:

Frustrated by open-air drug use, “smash-and-grab” robberies and shampoo locked away in stores, California voters overwhelmingly passed a ballot measure, Proposition 36, that will impose harsher penalties for shoplifting and drug possession.

Voters in Oakland and Los Angeles were on their way to ousting liberal district attorneys who had campaigned on social justice promises to reduce imprisonment and hold the police accountable. And statewide measures to raise the minimum wage, ban the forced labor of inmates and expand rent control, all backed by progressive groups and labor unions, were heading toward defeat.

Cayla Mihalovich at CalMatters:

In a setback to California’s historic reparations effort, voters rejected a ballot measure that would have ended forced labor in prisons and jails. Proposition 6 garnered support from Democratic party leaders, labor unions and dozens of advocacy groups who viewed their efforts as part of a national movement to end a racist legacy and abolish slavery.

The measure would have amended the state’s constitution to repeal language that allows involuntary servitude as a form of criminal punishment, making work assignments voluntary and allowing incarcerated people to prioritize their rehabilitation.
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California mandates tens of thousands of incarcerated people to work at jobs – many of which they do not choose — ranging from packaging nuts to doing dishes, to making license plates, sanitizer and furniture for less than 74 cents an hour, according to legislative summaries of prison work.

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It faced no funded opposition, and as election results showed the measure trailing, Prop. 6 supporters and independent political experts said the language might have confused voters.

The California Attorney General’s Office writes ballot language and summaries, and the word “slavery” did not appear on the California ballot. Instead, the language read, “Eliminates Constitutional Provision Allowing Involuntary Servitude for Incarcerated Persons. Legislative Constitutional Amendment.”

“When I saw the words ‘involuntary servitude,’ I thought, ‘This might take some explaining for the voters,’” said Mark Baldassare, survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California. “We know that when people are unsure or uncertain, the default is to vote ‘no.’”

In Nevada this election, a measure similar to Prop. 6 passed with 60% voter approval. Voters there saw ballot language that referenced slavery.

Sunday, November 10, 2024

Abortion Ballot Measures

Our 2020 book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. Abortion was a big issue in the 2022 midterm. In 2024, it was complicated.

 Ballotpedia:

Abortion has been a topic for statewide ballot measures since the 1970s. However, in 2022, following Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, a then-record number of abortion-related measures were on the ballot, including three from campaigns that described themselves as pro-choice or pro-reproductive rights. In 2023, voters in Ohio approved Issue 1.

On November 5, voters decided on 11 abortion-related ballot measures—the most on record for a single year. Ten addressed state constitutional rights to abortion. Voters approved seven of them in Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, New York, and Nevada. Voters rejected three in Florida, Nebraska, and South Dakota. One, in Nebraska, limited the timeframe for when an abortion can be performed.

Sareen Habeshian at Axios:

The big picture: The president-elect, who has repeatedly taken credit for overturning federal abortion protections, has flip-flopped on the issue but insisted he would not sign a national ban into law.But with a likely trifecta at the federal level, Congress could have the means to curb access — whether it be by passing a total national ban, pushing through a ban at various weeks of pregnancy or instating legislation to limit access to medication abortion.
Voters, showing they recognize abortion as a top priority, approved measures to expand or enshrine abortion access in Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nevada and New York.

Trump also won in deep-red Missouri and Montana and the swing states of Arizona and Nevada."Clearly, voters continue to be comfortable splitting tickets, both in terms of candidates but also when it comes to abortion rights ballot measures," Kelly Baden, vice president of public policy at the Guttmacher Institute, said.

What she's saying: This seeming contradiction between supporting abortion expansions and pro-life Republicans is not a new phenomenon.Baden pointed to Mississippi's 2011 "personhood" initiative, which was soundly defeated at the same time Republicans against abortion rights won in nearly all statewide races.

State of play: Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, voters in 16 states have weighed in on abortion-related constitutional amendments.Prior to this week's elections, in every state with ballot measures to expand abortion access, voters passed that expansion and it was a winning issue for Democrats in the midterms.
"One lesson is that we must better connect the dots for people that abortion is an economic issue," Baden said.





Saturday, November 9, 2024

Aggregate Vote for the House

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.


Friday, November 8, 2024

Inflation Election

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Our next book will look at the 2024 election.  Objective indicators were doing great. Perceptions, not so much.

On paper, the economy seems OK. Inflation is down recently. Wages are up. But anger persists. That’s because higher prices cause a special kind of pain — one that lingers and, historically, leads voters to punish the people in charge. Tuesday was no exception.
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Why does inflation anger voters so much? Some economic problems, like high unemployment, affect only a minority of the population. But higher prices affect everyone.

Inflation also taps into what psychologists call “loss aversion”: People feel negatively about losses much more than they feel positively about gains. So although wages have kept up with inflation or surpassed it, people still feel more pained by sticker shock at the grocery store than elated by their gains.

To make matters worse, consumers can’t do much about inflation. They simply have to cut back their spending on certain things or work more hours to afford them. The sense of loss combined with a feeling of powerlessness leaves people furious. They expect their leaders to fix the problem.

Inflation fell to normal levels over the past year, but high prices remain. Eggs still cost nearly triple what they did four years ago. When people imagine an ideal end to inflation, they think of prices returning to normal. That hasn’t happened, and economists don’t expect it will. When the polling firm Morning Consult surveyed U.S. voters about inflation, they were comparing prices with those from 2020. They blamed President Biden and Harris for the increases since then, fairly or not.

“Americans were comparing this economy to one without inflation, whether or not that was a realistic option according to economists,” said my colleague Ben Casselman, who covers the U.S. economy. “They weren’t saying, ‘Inflation is tough, but at least I have a job thanks to Biden.’ They were saying, ‘Of course I have a job, but now I have to deal with all this inflation thanks to Biden.’”
The same dynamic is haunting leaders all over the world. Over the past few years, voters have thrown out incumbents, on the left and the right, in Britain, France, the Netherlands, Argentina, Italy and Australia. The top political parties in South Africa, Japan and India also faced disappointing elections. Canada’s and Germany’s incumbents are in danger of losing their jobs next year.

 






Thursday, November 7, 2024

Post-Election 2024: What's a President-Elect to Do?


The General Services Administration Runs the Transition:
  • GSA continues to provide office space and support services to the President-elect and Vice President-elect, with support continuing up to 60 days after inauguration
  • A classified summary regarding national security is given to the president-elect as soon as possible after the election
  • Training and orientation activities commence for prospective presidential appointees (typically funded by Congress for the fiscal year in which the transition falls)
  • 30 days before the expiration of the term, GSA begins support to outgoing president and vice president, with support continuing for seven months total.
Personnel:






Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Mounting Discontent

 Bruce Mehlman:




Summing Up 2024


Peter Baker at NYT:
And while tens of millions of voters still cast ballots against Mr. Trump, he once again tapped into a sense among many others that the country they knew was slipping away, under siege economically, culturally and demographically.

To counter that, those voters ratified the return of a brash 78-year-old champion willing to upend convention and take radical action even if it offends sensibilities or violates old standards. Any misgivings about their chosen leader were shoved to the side.

As a result, for the first time in history, Americans have elected a convicted criminal as president. They handed power back to a leader who tried to overturn a previous election, called for the “termination” of the Constitution to reclaim his office, aspired to be a dictator on Day 1 and vowed to exact “retribution” against his adversaries.
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