The March on the Capitol Was Not Spontaneous

Our book, Divided We Stand, looks at the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection.  Some Republican leaders -- and a measurable number of rank-and-file voters -- are open to violent rebellion, coups, and secession. 

Luke Broadwater and Alan Feuer at NYT:

President Donald J. Trump attempted to make the Jan. 6, 2021, march on the Capitol appear spontaneous even as he and his team intentionally assembled and galvanized a violence-prone mob to disrupt certification of his electoral defeat, the House committee investigating the attack showed on Tuesday.

“POTUS is going to have us march there/the Capitol,” Kylie Jane Kremer, an organizer of the “Save America” rally on Jan. 6, wrote in a Jan. 4 text shown by the panel on Tuesday as it detailed Mr. Trump’s efforts to gather his backers in Washington for a final, last-ditch effort to overturn his loss. Ms. Kremer added that Mr. Trump was “going to just call for it ‘unexpectedly.’”

Mr. Trump weighed announcing the move, according to documents obtained from the National Archives, which provided the investigators with a draft tweet that said: “I will be making a Big Speech at 10AM on January 6th at the Ellipse (South of the White House). Please arrive early, massive crowds expected. March to the Capitol after. Stop the Steal!!”

The tweet was never sent. But it was the latest evidence presented by the committee of how Mr. Trump undertook a public and private effort to channel angry supporters, including right-wing extremists, toward the Capitol, where Vice President Mike Pence and lawmakers were gathered to confirm Joseph R. Biden Jr. as the president-elect.

Lloyd Green at The Guardian:

By the time the closing gavel fell on Tuesday’s hearing, the American public had received another hours-long refresher on the 45th president’s disdain for the will of the electorate, and his appetite for chaos and self-aggrandizement.

On Friday night, 18 December 2020, he allowed the lunatics into the asylum. Sidney Powell, Mike Flynn and Patrick Byrne, the former lover of Maria Butina, the Russian spy, were all there in one place – that place being the Oval Office.

Some context: in mid-December, Flynn was a rock star. Just a week earlier, he had received a presidential pardon. Byrne is the former CEO of Overstock and a huge fan of cryptocurrency. He also doubted Rudy Giuliani’s legal chops.

“I had watched two months slide by Mayor Giuliani and his team displaying no organization or progress,” Byrne blogged. “Watching them trying to get anything done was like watching half-a-dozen monkeys trying to fuck a football.”

Fortunately, Pat Cipollone, the White House counsel, and Eric Herschmann, another Trump lawyer, pushed back against the motley crew. They made clear there was no basis to claim that fraud affected the election’s outcome.

Likewise, the duo said “no” to appointing Powell as a special election counsel and opposed the federal government seizing voting machines located in electoral battlegrounds. Some things really were beyond the pale.

Capitol Violence: Predictable and Predicted

Our book, Divided We Stand, looks at the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection.  Some Republican leaders -- and a measurable number of rank-and-file voters -- are open to violent rebellion, coups, and secession.  DOJ has charged the head of the Oath Keepers with seditious conspiracy.

On December 22, 2020, Marissa Lang reported at WP:

In a tweet last week, President Trump foreshadowed a “wild” protest in the District on Jan. 6 — the day Congress formally counts the electoral college votes — and his supporters are determined not to disappoint him.

This week, Women for America First requested a protest permit for that day. The group of conservative women was at the center of organizing the November “Stop the Steal” rally that drew thousands of Trump supporters to the nation’s capital and this month’s March for Trump that ended in a night of chaos and violence as a group with ties to white nationalism roamed the streets looking for a fight.

Conversations about the January gathering have taken off on chat forums used by far-right groups, including Gab, Parler and Telegram. The Proud Boys, members of armed right-wing groups, conspiracy theorists and white supremacists all have pledged to attend.

Women for America First estimates that about 5,000 people will attend the Jan. 6 rally, which it hopes to hold at Freedom Plaza.

Peter Navarro releases 36-page report alleging election fraud 'more than sufficient' to swing victory to Trump https://t.co/D8KrMHnFdK. A great report by Peter. Statistically impossible to have lost the 2020 Election. Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 19, 2020

The U.S. Park Service has not yet granted the group’s request, although permits are not typically issued until the week of an event.

Organizers had initially requested space at Freedom Plaza to stage a protest after the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden, a Park Service official said. But increasing chatter about Jan. 6 prompted the organization to change its plans.

On the event website, a flier for the demonstration says, “the president is calling on us to come back to Washington on Jan. 6 for a big protest — ‘be there, will be wild.’ ”

The event, on a Wednesday, is to begin at noon and run until 5 p.m.

...

Experts on far-right movements warn that January’s rallies could bring with them more violence as Trump’s bid to hold onto power takes its last gasps.

“The violence has ramped up quite a bit,” said Heidi Beirich, a founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism. “What I’m worried about is these street battles getting more fierce and aggressive.”

On Dec. 12, four people were stabbed, one critically, during a chaotic confrontation near Harry’s Bar at 11th and F Streets NW. The bar has become a well-known gathering place for the Proud Boys, a male-chauvinist group that the FBI has deemed an extremist organization with ties to white nationalism.

Although police declined to identify the political ideologies of the stabbing victims or the man accused in the incident — against whom prosecutors have declined to pursue charges — several prominent Proud Boys have used social media to show off wounds they said they suffered in the attack.

Several online posts appear to show far-right demonstrators workshopping ways to smuggle guns into the District, where carrying without a permit is prohibited and guns are banned at all protests.

Other posts include talk of violence and increasing frustrations with D.C. police, who prevented Proud Boys from entering Black Lives Matter Plaza near the White House to confront anti-Trump demonstrators this month

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Economic Red Flag for Democrats

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.   RDI is a key indicator and it ain't looking good for Dems. 

Matt Phillps at Axios on July 1:

Driving the news: Real per capita disposable income — the money consumers can spend after accounting for taxes and inflation — is dropping sharply, according to government data released Thursday.

Why it matters: Pollsters, political scientists and economists consider this measure of the household buying power to be, perhaps, the single best economic predictor of election results. Rising real incomes tend to predict rising vote share for the president's party during the midterm elections, and vice versa.

By the numbers: Real — meaning inflation-adjusted — per capita disposable income fell to $45,490 in May, down 3.6% from the previous year.In fact, since March 2021 — when the last round of stimulus checks artificially puffed personal disposable income to a record high level of nearly $57,000 — real incomes are down 20%.

The big picture: In a recent note attempting to ballpark the outlook for Democrats in the November elections, Goldman Sachs analysts found that "real disposable income is the strongest predictor of election results among the economic variables we consider.""It is also particularly relevant in the current election cycle, as elevated inflation and a decline in fiscal transfers have weighed it down compared with a year ago," they wrote, adding that the direction of income data suggests "a large loss" is in store for Democrats in the elections.

Longtime Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said on the political podcast "Hacks on Tap" earlier this year that "people look at all kinds of economic indicators unemployment, GDP, growth. The one that is most important politically that people never look at, is change in real disposable income."

DeSantis and Trump

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  The early stages of the 2024 race will soon begin.

He seems to have noticed. Nick Mordowanec at Newsweek:

Former President Donald Trump is touting polls showing increased support for him as the Republican Party's 2024 presidential candidate, saying his numbers are rising amid continued negative attention on a national scale during the "witch hunt" January 6 congressional hearings. On Truth Social, Trump referenced a tweet published July 2 that shows results from two separate polls of potential 2024 GOP candidates. One poll conducted on May 18 showed Trump with a 41 percent to 12 percent lead over potential GOP candidate, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical matchup. "With all the lies and the greatest Witch Hunt in U.S. History...my number went up," Trump said in his Friday Truth Social post. "MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"

Oath Keepers: Explosive, Death List, and Seditious Conspiracy

Our book, Divided We Stand, looks at the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection.  Some Republican leaders -- and a measurable number of rank-and-file voters -- are open to violent rebellion, coups, and secession.  DOJ has charged the head of the Oath Keepers with seditious conspiracy.

From the Justice Department:

Elmer Stewart Rhodes, Kelly Meggs, Kenneth Harrelson, Jessica Watkins, Roberto Minuta, Joseph Hackett, David Moerschel, Thomas Caldwell, and Edward Vallejo (collectively, “the defendants”) have been charged by indictment for their participation in a plot to use force to oppose the authority of the Government of the United States and to prevent, hinder, or delay the execution of specific laws and provisions of the Constitution of the United States governing the transfer of presidential power.

The government respectfully submits this motion and notice of its intent to introduce certain evidence at trial including: First, evidence that certain co-conspirators traveled toWashington, D.C., in November 2020 and, like for January 6, 2021, organized an armed Quick Reaction Force (“QRF”). Second, evidence that co-conspirator Jeremy Brown transported explosives to the Washington, D.C., area on January 6, 2021. Third, evidence that certain coconspirators including Stewart Rhodes, Kelly Meggs, and Jessica Watkins discussed and prepared for violent conflict with government actors after January 6 and before January 20, demonstrating the co-conspirators’ plan to oppose the lawful transfer of power before Inauguration Day. Fourth, evidence that co-conspirator Jessica Watkins possessed bomb-making instructions during the charged conspiracy as evidence of Watkin’s preparation to use force against the government. And fifth, evidence that co-conspirator Thomas Caldwell possessed a “death list” with the names of Georgia election officials and, later, attempted to have someone build him firearms before January 20, showing Caldwell’s intent to oppose government actors by force to stop the transfer of presidential power. 

From the Monmouth University Polling Institute:

Nearly two-thirds (65%) of the public say it is appropriate to describe the incident at the U.S. Capitol as a riot, and half (50%) say it is appropriate to describe it as an insurrection. Both of these numbers, though, are down from a year ago (by 7 points for riot and by 6 points for insurrection). These negative views of Jan. 6 have held relatively steady among Democrats and independents, but have slipped significantly among Republicans. Last year, a clear majority (62%) of Republicans called the incident a riot. Now, less than half (45%) do. Similarly, a third (33%) of Republicans in June 2021 said it was appropriate to describe the incident as an insurrection, but only 13% say the same today.

By comparison, the number of Americans who say it is appropriate to describe the U.S. Capitol incident as a legitimate protest has remained stable over the past year (34% now compared with 33% in June 2021). However, the number of Republicans who see this incident as a legitimate protest has actually risen by 14 points to 61%, at the same time this view has declined among independents (down 6 points to 33%) and remained stable among Democrats (14%).

 

Problematic Statewide GOP Candidates

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. 

 Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols, Zachary Basu at Axios:

A trio of Trump-endorsed Senate candidates in three crucial battleground states are under fresh scrutiny after a 24-hour barrage of negative headlines, raising new questions about their liabilies in the general election:

• In Georgia, an explosive Daily Beast scoop alleged GOP nominee Herschel Walker lied to his own campaign staff about his undisclosed children. The story paints a picture of a volatile, unprepared candidate whom three sources independently called a "pathological liar."
• In Arizona, the New York Times reported on old writings in which Trump-backed candidate Blake Masters "approvingly quoted a Nazi war criminal" and said he opposed U.S. involvement in both world wars.
• In Pennsylvania, a Politico piece titled "Where in the world is Dr. Oz?" details Republican fears about the GOP nominee falling behind in the polls, going dark on the airwaves since May 21, and struggling to unite the party after a bruising primary.

AP:

A leading contender for the Republican nomination for governor in Michigan was sued in the 1990s, accused of using racial slurs about Black people in the workplace and sexually harassing his employees.

One of his rivals pleaded not guilty in federal court on Thursday to misdemeanor charges after authorities said he rallied Donald Trump’s supporters to storm the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6 insurrection. Another candidate is a chiropractor and self-help guru who hawked supplements he falsely claimed treated COVID-19.

And even the contender who has garnered mainstream support had an “admittedly lame” hobby acting in low-budget horror pictures, one of which included a zombie biting off a man’s genitals.

In one of the most politically consequential states in the U.S., the Republican primary for governor is shaping up as a battle of whose personal baggage is the least disqualifying. In an otherwise favorable election year for Republicans, the spectacle surrounding the Aug. 2 contest could hobble the party’s effort to defeat Democratic incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in the fall.

Premature Frontrunners

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  The early stages of the 2024 race will soon begin.

 Charlie Sykes notes presidential buzz around Illinois Governor Pritzker and California Governor Newsom.

Which brings us to Newsom and Pritzker, who are being mentioned by the Great Premature Mentioners as possible 2024 contenders.

The same thing is happening in the GOP, where there is a good deal of post-Trump wish-casting.

The cool kid betting has Florida’s Ron DeSantis in the pole position. But don’t count on it, because these things always look better in the perfervid imaginings of pundits and consultants.

History suggests — actually it shouts at us — that there is many a slip twixt the hype and an actual candidacy.

Just ask President Fred Thompson. Or Rick Perry. Or Gary Hart. Or Jeb (!) Bush, Ed Muskie, Wesley Clark, Scott Walker, or America’s Freaking Mayor.

It’s worth remembering that, at one time, they were not just contenders — they were front-runners. And then stuff happened.

Mark Barabak at LAT:

... Newsom is making all sorts of noise and mustering all kinds of attention outside the state, most recently by trolling Florida’s governor with a campaign-style TV spot dumping on Republican Ron DeSantis and some of his retrograde policies on free speech and voting rights.
...

[BUT] History has shown how tough it is for a governor with full-time responsibilities in Sacramento to run for president and succeed. Republican Pete Wilson and Democrat Jerry Brown both fell short in their pursuit of the White House and learned that the hard way.

Then there’s the matter of the Democrat currently residing in the White House

...

What if Biden chooses not to seek a second term?

Then the front-runner automatically becomes his vice president — and Newsom’s old frenemy — Kamala Harris.

The two came up together in San Francisco politics and share the same donor and political base. (For a time, they shared the same set of political strategists.) Newsom had indicated to those around him he has no intention of challenging Harris if she were to run in 2024, which is probably wise.

Taking the nomination away from a sitting vice president would also pose a steep challenge.