Swalwell Aftershocks

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. 

Dakota Smith and Nicole Nixon at LAT:

• Former Rep. Eric Swalwell appeared positioned to lead California’s Democratic gubernatorial field after powerful state institutions and Newsom allies rallied behind the anti-Trump darling before his campaign’s sudden collapse.
• Explosive allegations that Swalwell sexually assaulted a former staffer and acted inappropriately with other women prompted his exit from the race and resignation from Congress, allegations he denies.
• Democratic leaders and the groups that backed him — including labor unions and interest groups — now face scrutiny over whether they missed red flags or ignored warnings about his rumored behavior.

Why did it take so long for the allegations to become public?  Mark Z. Barabak, also at LAT:

If the allegations are true and Swalwell is, in fact, a liar, lecher and sexual assailant, why wasn’t that widely reported up until now? Was it negligence, or gullibility on the part of the political press corps? The short answer is that a wide gulf exists between rumor and fact and Swalwell lurked in that gray space, living and thriving in the shadows between provability and denial.

It’s not unusual for rumors about financial, sexual or other peccadilloes to attend a campaign. They’re often trafficked by political rivals, which automatically raises suspicion and invites particular skepticism.

Much of the chatter never moves past a relatively small, dishy circle of political gossips because the supposed misdeeds, while titillating, can’t stand up to rigorous scrutiny. Or a legal challenge. That’s the baseline for many news outlets to broadcast or publish a story. Call them what you will — legacy, corporate, mainstream, lamestream — many of the largest, most influential sources of news and information won’t pass along allegations they can’t independently verify and, if necessary, defend in court.

The challenge is verifying all that loose talk.

Politicians don’t wear body cams, or broadcast their lives 24/7. (OK, Beto O’Rourke did livestream from a Texas laundromat during his 2018 Senate bid, holding up a soggy pair of underwear when he addressed the “boxers or briefs” question. But he’s an exception.)

Journalists don’t have subpoena power and can’t force people to tell them what they know. A reporter is only as good as his or her sources, their knowledge, truthfulness and credibility.

Reporting on misdeeds of an intimate nature can be especially difficult and complex. There’s rarely black-and-white documentation, such as a money trail leading to a hotel bedroom. It’s hard to find an eyewitness or reliable third party who can vouch for what took place between people behind closed doors. It takes time and trust to develop sources who can substantiate incidents of sexual misconduct, assault or abuse.

Midterms Look Bad for the GOP

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. 

Dash Burns at Politico:

A sputtering economy, high gas prices, a fight with the pope and a pair of foreign policy setbacks — in Pakistan and Hungary — have left many White House allies newly exasperated as they try to navigate what was always going to be a difficult midterm year.

...

Trump’s weaves and fights are nothing new. But they come at an increasingly inconvenient time for a party clinging to razor-thin margins in Congress. Polls show Trump’s handling of the economy at career lows. A significant number of Republicans don’t support the war in Iran, and the White House spent part of Monday defending and then deleting a meme of Trump as Jesus Christ that infuriated many MAGA warriors.

“I was surprised at the number of strong Trump supporting evangelicals who were willing to criticize him,” said Erick Erickson, a conservative radio host and an influential voice with evangelical voters central to the MAGA base. “The problem ultimately is as he becomes a lame duck more and more people start to move beyond him. If he wants to minimize people looking to 2028 past him, he can’t do stuff like this. It minimizes the ability to keep the focus on him and his policies as people finally get tired of it. That’s bad for the midterms and bad for his ability to advance his agenda.”

Trump v. the Pope, continuted

Our books have discussed Trump's low character, which was on display this weekend. His political judgment is getting worse, as is clear from his attacks on the Pope and his Jesus posts.

pic.twitter.com/nzzWbUK1VY

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 15, 2026

 

Elizabeth Dias and Motoko Rich at NYT:

Donald Trump ascended to office 10 years ago while publicly jousting with Pope Francis, who was routinely making headlines for the progressive Catholicism he elevated, pushing the Roman Catholic Church to focus on climate change and the rights of immigrants. The pope suggested that Mr. Trump was “not Christian”; Mr. Trump fired back that Francis was “disgraceful.”

Mr. Trump capitalized on growing discontent among conservative Christians and won the White House. The chasm only further widened between the Vatican and conservative American Catholics, who often saw in Mr. Trump a champion.

Pope Leo XIV, who was elected less than a year ago, is not Francis. For Mr. Trump, who is now in his second term, he presents a new foil at the Vatican with a markedly different standing among Catholics. As the first American in the seat of St. Peter, he has a native fluency in American politics and culture, and his leadership is supported across broad swaths of the American church.

....

Unlike his predecessor, Leo has growing support from conservative Catholics in pews across the United States. As the anniversary of his election approaches next month, he has so significantly rebuilt the Vatican’s relationship with the American Catholic right that many in Mr. Trump’s own camp rushed to the pope’s defense on Monday.

Interviews with conservatives attending Mass at Catholic parishes across the country revealed significant displeasure with the president for his harsh criticism of the pope, a dynamic hard to imagine not long ago.

...

Leo has an 84 percent favorability rating among American Catholics, with overwhelmingly high support regardless of political party, according to a Pew Research Center survey from last year. Francis’ favorability rating was just as high the first year of his papacy, but by the time of his death it had dropped to 78 percent.

Trump Attacks the Pope and Compares HImself to Jesus (not kidding)

 Our books have discussed Trump's low character, which was on display this weekend.

Trump attacks the Pope in a Truth Social rant, calling him “weak” and attacking his views on foreign policy, Iran, and even his legitimacy as pontiff—claiming he wouldn’t be Pope if Trump weren’t president. pic.twitter.com/hsBOFeq7pi

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) April 13, 2026

The president posted this not long after attacking the Pope: pic.twitter.com/RlRhO63ZCo

— Adam Wren (@adamwren) April 13, 2026

Breaking News: Pope Leo XIV said he had “no fear of the Trump administration” after President Trump lashed out at him on social media. https://t.co/kMG1tDPHND

— The New York Times (@nytimes) April 13, 2026

Iran and Consumer Sentiment

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments -- now including a war in the Middle East.

Matt Grossman at WSJ:

Consumer sentiment fell in April to the lowest level recorded in the 70-plus-year history of the University of Michigan’s survey, evidence of Americans’ concerns that the Iran war will hit the domestic economy.

The survey’s initial April reading came in at 47.6, versus 53.3 in March. Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal were expecting a drop to 52. The April reading is below the previous low point of 50 recorded in June 2022, when the economy was facing searing inflation.

The initial April results are based almost entirely on interviews that took place between March 24 and April 6, before a tentative cease-fire took hold. The survey will be updated with a final April reading later this month, based on more recent responses.

The darker economic mood was widespread across people of different ages, income levels and political affiliations, said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director. “Many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy,” she said.

Swalwell Scandal

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. 

Seema Mehta,  Dakota Smith and Nicole Nixon at LAT:

Rep. Eric Swalwell, a Democratic front-runner in the hotly contested California governor’s race, is facing mounting calls to drop out of the contest after he was accused of sexual assault and misconduct by a former staff member and other women in reports published on Friday.

A woman who worked for the Northern California congressman said they had a consensual relationship at times, but that he sexually assaulted her twice when she was too inebriated to consent, according to a report by the San Francisco Chronicle. Three other women also have accused Swalwell of sexual misconduct, including sending unsolicited nude photos, according to CNN.

The allegations have Swalwell’s campaign teetering on collapse, with powerful labor organizations and other major supporters pulling their endorsements and canceling political ads promoting the once-promising candidate. Prominent Democrats — including U.S. Sens. Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter — are among the politicians who called on him to rdrop out of the race.

Riley Rogerson at Politico:

The situation presents a predicament for the sitting House Democratic leaders, who have insisted on letting a full Ethics Committee investigation play out before supporting formal discipline against another House Democrat accused of misconduct, Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.).

Jeffries, Minority Whip Katherine Clark of Massachusetts and Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar of California did not speak directly to consequences in the House in a joint statement.

But House Republicans were already discussing by Friday evening the likely scenario that one of their own members will bring a censure effort against Swalwell, according to three people granted anonymity to describe private conversations.

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) said in an interview that she was weighing a censure and other action against Swalwell based on the reports of sexual assault allegations against him.

Luna said she would act “if there is evidence brought forward.”

 

The Day of Melania

 Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist.  Especially Epstein.

Stephen Collinson at CNN:

The most plausible explanation for first lady Melania Trump’s out-of-the-blue address on the Jeffrey Epstein drama was that she was trying to make it go away.

But her stunning on-camera statement Thursday from the White House Cross Hall — the spot where her husband last week spoke to the nation about the Iran war — will almost certainly have the opposite effect.

“I am not Epstein’s victim. Epstein did not introduce me to Donald Trump,” she said, in a statement that was all the more remarkable since there had been no widespread public speculation about the matter in recent days.

It brings to mind this scene in All the President's Men (which premiered exactly 50 years earlier).

Howard Simons: Did you call the White House press office?

Bob Woodward: I went over there; I talked to them. They said Hunt hadn't worked there for three months. Then a PR guy said this weird thing to me. He said, "I am convinced that neither Mr. Colson nor anyone else at the White House had any knowledge of, or participation in, this deplorable incident at the Democratic National Committee."

Howard Simons: Isn't that what you expect them to say?

Bob Woodward: Absolutely.

Howard Simons: So?

Bob Woodward: I never asked about Watergate. I simply asked what were Hunt's duties at the White House. They volunteered he was innocent when nobody asked if he was guilty.

The Streisand Effect, according to Wikipedia:

The Streisand effect describes a situation where an attempt to hide, remove, or censor information results in the unintended consequence of the effort instead increasing public awareness of the information.

 Bill Kristol:

Melania’s focus was on . . . Melania. She began, “The lies linking me with the disgraceful Jeffrey Epstein need to end today.” Her purpose, she said, was to defend “my reputation,” to clear “my good name.” (Emphasis mine.)

And so she asserted that “I have never been friends with Epstein” and that “I . . . was never on Epstein’s plane.” She also claimed that “My email reply to [Epstein’s imprisoned accomplice Ghislaine] Maxwell cannot be categorized as anything more than casual correspondence.1 My polite reply to her email doesn’t amount to anything more than a trivial note.”

Left unsaid, but not unimplied, was that none of these claims could be made about her husband. He was a pal of Epstein’s. He was on Epstein’s plane. His relationship with Epstein, as exemplified for example in his contribution to Epstein’s birthday book, was more than “casual” or “trivial.”

Melania also chose to express concern for Epstein’s victims, something her husband has conspicuously not done.

And she went on to say that

Now is the time for Congress to act. Epstein was not alone. Several prominent male executives resigned from their powerful positions after this matter became widely politicized. Of course, this doesn’t amount to guilt, but we still must work openly and transparently to uncover the truth.

So the Epstein investigation is not, as her husband has asserted, a “hoax.” Nor is it yet time, as her husband has said, to move on. The truth hasn’t yet been uncovered, and we need to uncover it. And if doing so leads more “prominent male executives” to resign, so be it. One wonders: Could Melania have one prominent male chief executive in mind?

Melania chose not to include in her statement any assertion of her husband’s innocence of complicity in the Epstein affair.

Melania is perhaps not a deep thinker, but she’s no fool. Since immigrating to the United States three decades ago, Melania Knauss has done well for herself. She’s shown that she has a shrewd sense of how to operate in her adopted country. She’s risen to the top, while mostly avoiding being directly engulfed in all the scandals that have raged around her.