GOP Problems in World War G

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

The California Legislature has approved a special election to redraw congressional district lines. Democrats stand to pick up five seats to offset a recent Texas gerrymander.  The war is spreading, but the GOP plans is running into problems.

Will McCarthy at Politico:

Republicans appear to have all but abandoned their efforts to defeat a Democratic gerrymander of California’s House districts one week before it goes before voters.

As Democrats pummel the state with Yes on 50 advertising, the Republican side of the battle has gone quiet. Major GOP donors and party leaders have effectively vanished from the front lines.

 Andrew Howard at Politico:

At the urging of the White House, Republicans have already drawn seven new GOP-leaning House seats via mid-decade redistricting in three states, with more on the way. But the nationwide remapping effort is losing steam, largely due to these state-level Republicans refusing to blink at the Trump team’s threats of primaries. And while cracks are forming in Trump’s strategy, Democrats are waking up to the dangers ahead, POLITICO reported this week.

The few Republicans willing to defy the president constitute a dying breed in a party that’s become solidly MAGA under Trump’s thumb.

“If they want to threaten me with something, I don’t know what it’d be,” Kansas Republican Rep. Mark Schreiber, who is among holdouts in the state, said in an interview. “I’m fine with the stance I’m at.”

As Trump desperately tries to cling to control of Congress for the remainder of his term, he’s leaned heavily on redistricting congressional lines to block Democrats from their coveted takeover of the House. They need to net just three seats to regain a measure of influence in Washington.

But despite support from within Congress and the broader base, Republicans in state houses are showing that Trump and his team cannot coerce veteran local politicians, many of whom are elderly, in safe seats and unconcerned with the national political landscape.

Trump, Politics, and the Military

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments.

"I can tell you I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump – I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad." -- Donald J. Trump, March 13, 2019

JACK BLANCHARD with DASHA BURNS at POLITICO:

In the early hours of this morning, Trump gave another highly partisan speech to the U.S. military, hailing his own political achievements and repeatedly condemning his Democratic opponents and critics in the media.

War fighters unite: Trump was addressing hundreds of U.S. Navy personnel onboard the USS George Washington aircraft carrier in Tokyo Bay, Japan, about 6,500 miles from D.C. In a raucous, rambling, hourlong speech that flipped between jokey asides and fiery rhetoric, Trump told the troops that the U.S. military is “no longer politically correct” and should “defend our country whatever way we have to.”

Close your ears, Norway: Trump expressed regret that the U.S. military no longer seeks “the spoils” of war. And the rank-and-file cheered as he told them: “No enemy will ever even dream of threatening America’s Navy ... And if they do, the American sailor stands ready to crush them, and sink them, and wreck them, and blast them into oblivion.” Trump joked that such sentiments could cost him the Nobel Peace Prize. (And he might be right.)
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But what’s most striking is Trump’s willingness to use the troops as a foil for his highly partisan rhetoric. He repeatedly condemned his predecessor Joe Biden, told his audience the 2020 election had been rigged and savaged Democratic governors who resist military incursions into their cities. “People don’t care if we send in our military, our National Guard,” Trump told the troops. “They just want to be safe.”

Trump also called out the “fake news media,” encouraging the troops to deride the gathered journalists, before admitting later, a little grudgingly: “They’re getting better. They’re not there yet.”

The new normal: This was the third politically charged speech Trump has made to members of the U.S. forces in a month, following his highly controversial address to hundreds of generals in late September and his self-described “rally” to U.S. Navy sailors in Virginia the following week. It’s a clear break from any of his predecessors of recent times, and is happening at the very moment Trump is increasingly seeking to deploy the military for domestic law enforcement here in the U.S. And it’s making some members of the military — privately — very nervous indeed.

Shutdown, Obamacare, and the Debt

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration  has been full of ominous developments.  Americans are noticing.

Chris Stirwalt at The Hill:

Two big data points in the headlines this week: 1) The average cost of a family health insurance plan will be $27,000 for coverage next year and 2) The federal debt grew faster than any time other than the pandemic and surpassed $38 trillion Wednesday.

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Democrats have already won the shutdown. Whether it ends today or on Nov. 1, when the open enrollment period for health insurance begins in most places, the shutdown will have dramatically increased the pressure on Republicans over rising health costs. The GOP has already agreed to extend enhanced ObamaCare subsidies, but is insisting the vote will come after the government is reopened, not as a condition for reopening it.

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Which is all a long way of saying that in that way, Democrats have already won the shutdown. Whether it ends today or on Nov. 1, when the open enrollment period for health insurance begins in most places, the shutdown will have dramatically increased the pressure on Republicans over rising health costs. The GOP has already agreed to extend enhanced ObamaCare subsidies, but is insisting the vote will come after the government is reopened, not as a condition for reopening it.

Either way, when they do, Republicans will be acceding to Democrats’ demands to have the government provide more subsidies to offset the consequences of a cost spiral that itself is partly caused by … subsidies.

So Washington’s response to those two big new numbers this week will most assuredly make them both worse.

World War G: The Battlefield Expands

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

The California Legislature has approved a special election to redraw congressional district lines. Democrats stand to pick up five seats to offset a recent Texas gerrymander.  The war is spreading.

Reid Epstein at NYT:

The next front in the nation’s pitched battle over mid-decade congressional redistricting is opening in Virginia, where Democrats are planning the first step toward redrawing congressional maps, a move that could give their party two or three more seats.

The surprise development, which was announced by legislators on Thursday, would make Virginia the second state, after California, in which Democrats try to counter a wave of Republican moves demanded by President Trump to redistrict states to their advantage before the 2026 midterm elections. No other Democratic state has begun redistricting proceedings, while several Republican states have drawn new maps or are deliberating doing so.

Bruce Mehlman:

Traditionally redistricting is usually done once per decade, though this is not dictated by the Constitution or a specific law. President Trump is pushing Republican states to redraw maps in 2025 to maximize GOP advantage for 2026, and three have already done so (TX, NC, MO) with two more coming (OH, UT). Many Democratic governors such as California’s Gavin Newsom are moving to “fight fire with fire” with hyper-partisan gerrrymanders of their own. Up to 15 states in total (so far) are considering or acting: the 5 above plus CA, FL, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, NE, SC, VA & WI.

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Democrats could be in danger of losing around a dozen districts across the South if the court strikes down Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais, a case the court heard two weeks ago. “Without Section 2, which has been interpreted to require the creation of majority-minority districts, Republicans could eliminate upward of a dozen Democratic-held districts across the South.” (NYT)

Trump v. the Rule of Law

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments, such as the extrajudicial killing of people allegedly running drugs on the high seas.

Charlie Savage at NYT:

Jack Goldsmith, a Harvard Law School professor and former top Justice Department lawyer in the George W. Bush administration, said Mr. Trump’s actions demonstrated an indifference to law that threatened to hollow it out.

“Nixon tried to keep his criminality secret, and the Bush administration tried to keep the torture secret, and that secrecy acknowledged the norm that these things were wrong,” Professor Goldsmith said. “Trump, as he often does when he is breaking law or norms, is acting publicly and without shame or unease. This is a very successful way to destroy the efficacy of law and norms.”

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Even if the Justice Department memo that somehow blesses the killings lacks much actual legal analysis and even if a future administration rescinds it, its existence essentially forecloses any prospect of future prosecutions. It is hard to prove someone intentionally committed a crime when the Justice Department itself said at the time that the action was lawful.

Two decades ago, Professor Goldsmith took over the Office of Legal Counsel and withdrew memos issued under the Bush administration that blessed the C.I.A.’s torture program. Reflecting on that period in a memoir, he called such memos get-out-of-jail-free cards.

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The administration has found a two-part hack to the system in which executive branch lawyers are supposed to independently determine the legal boundaries within which policymakers may act.

The first is that Mr. Trump has told executive branch lawyers that they may not question any legal judgment that he — or Attorney General Pam Bondi, subject to his “supervision and control” — already decided. “The president and the attorney general’s opinions on questions of law are controlling on all employees in the conduct of their official duties,” Mr. Trump declared in a February executive order.

The second is that Mr. Trump has been declaring that as president, he has determined that the factual and legal scenarios exist that are necessary for him to exercise various extraordinary powers.

The two tactics combined create a gigantic loophole. Mr. Trump is able to dictate his own factual and legal realities, and executive branch lawyers who want to keep their jobs must treat them as settled. The result is that Mr. Trump can order agencies to take actions to which independent-minded lawyers might have raised legal objections.

In August, Trump said:" I have the right to do anything I want to do. I'm the president of the United States."

In February, he posted an apocryphal quotation from Napoleon: "He who saves his Country does not violate any Law."

In 2019, he said: "Then I have an Article 2, where I have the right to do whatever I want as President."

Trump Doing Unpopular Things

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration  has been full of ominous developments.  Americans are noticing.

PRRI:

A new national survey released today by Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) in partnership with the Brookings Institution reveals Americans’ responses to the unprecedented actions taken so far by President Donald Trump during his second presidential term. The survey — the 16th annual American Values Survey — also examines Americans’ concerns about the economy and how democracy is working, what it means to be “truly American,” and opposition to building internment camps for undocumented immigrants and allowing ICE agents to mask their identity.

Majorities of Americans say that the Trump administration cuts in federal funding for health care (60%) and universities and research institutions (55%), the implementation of new tariffs (54%), and the increase in funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) (52%) have gone too far. Across all areas, independents hold views more aligned with Democrats. For example, most Democrats (90%) and independents (67%) say that cuts in federal funding for programs such as Medicaid, Medicare, and the Affordable Care Act have gone too far, compared with only 25% of Republicans

Sarah Fortinsky at The Hill:

A majority of Americans said in a new poll they disapprove of President Trump’s plans to demolish part of the East Wing in the White House to make room for his $250 million ballroom.

In the YouGov America poll, released on Wednesday, 53 percent of Americans said they strongly or somewhat disapprove “of the decision to demolish part of the East Wing of the White House as part of the renovations,” while 24 percent approved and 24 percent said they are unsure.

Jason Lange at Reuters:

More than half of Americans, including about three in 10 Republicans, believe President Donald Trump is using federal law enforcement to go after his enemies, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll that also found growing concern about U.S. political divisions nine months into his second term in office.

Some 55% of poll respondents in the six-day poll, which closed on Monday, agreed with a statement that the Republican president is using law enforcement to target his enemies, while 26% disagreed and the rest were unsure or did not respond. Some 85% of the poll respondents who identified themselves as Democrats agreed, as did 29% of the Republican poll takers.

 

Ingrassia

 Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments -- including a tranche of racist and anti-Semitic chats by prominent Young Republicans.  Yesterday, a nominee had to withdraw after texts showed him acknowledging a "Nazi streak."

Stef  W. Kight at Axios:

Paul Ingrassia withdrew himself from consideration to serve as the head of the Office of the Special Counsel ahead of a scheduled Thursday hearing after several GOP senators warned they would vote against him.

Why it matters: Ingrassia's history of controversial statements — compounded by new reporting of racist text messages — even made some of President Trump's close allies on the Hill unwilling to back him.

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Catch up quick: Ingrassia is an attorney and 30-year-old, right-wing podcaster.

His nomination has been in jeopardy from nearly the start. He bombed an early meeting with committee staff back in July, Axios reported at the time.

Senators' concerns were only amplified by new reporting from Politico this week that he texted in a GOP text chain that he has a "Nazi streak" and that Martin Luther King Jr.'s holiday should be "tossed into the seventh circle of hell."

Daniel Lippman at Politico:

Paul Ingrassia, President Donald Trump’s embattled nominee to lead the Office of Special Counsel, told a group of fellow Republicans in a text chain the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday should be “tossed into the seventh circle of hell” and said he has “a Nazi streak,” according to a text chat viewed by POLITICO.

Ingrassia, who has a Senate confirmation hearing scheduled Thursday, made the remarks in a chain with a half-dozen Republican operatives and influencers, according to the chat.

“MLK Jr. was the 1960s George Floyd and his ‘holiday’ should be ended and tossed into the seventh circle of hell where it belongs,” Ingrassia wrote in January 2024, according to the chat.

“Jesus Christ,” one participant responded.

Using an Italian slur for Black people, Ingrassia wrote a month earlier in the group chat seen by POLITICO: “No moulignon holidays … From kwanza [sic] to mlk jr day to black history month to Juneteenth,” then added: “Every single one needs to be eviscerated.”

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In May 2024, the group was bantering about a Trump campaign staffer who’d been hired in Georgia and was working on outreach to minority voters, when Ingrassia suggested she didn’t show enough deference to the Founding Fathers being white, according to the chat.

“Paul belongs in the Hitler Youth with Ubergruppenfuhrer Steve Bannon,” the first participant in the chat wrote, referring to the paramilitary rank in Nazi Germany and the Republican strategist. POLITICO is not naming the participants to protect the identity of those interviewed for this article.

“I do have a Nazi streak in me from time to time, I will admit it,” Ingrassia responded, according to the chain. One of the people in the text group said in an interview that Ingrassia’s comment was not taken as a joke, and three participants pushed back against Ingrassia during the text exchange that day.

From Firstpost:

He later graduated from Cornell Law School in 2022, where he served as the senior online editor of the Cornell Journal of Law and Public Policy.

While studying law, Ingrassia was involved in conservative student circles and wrote for right-leaning outlets such as The Daily Caller and The Gateway Pundit.

He was twice named a fellow at the Claremont Institute, a conservative think tank known for its advocacy of traditionalist and nationalist perspectives within the Republican Party.