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Friday, April 3, 2026

Iranamok: Two from Tom Nichols

  Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments -- now including a war in the Middle East.

Tom Nichols on the Defense Department in wartime:

The United States is in the middle of a major war, but that didn’t stop Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on Thursday from firing General Randy George, America’s most senior Army officer. George was the Army’s chief of staff, and he was cashiered along with another four-star general, David Hodne, and Major General William Green Jr., the top Army chaplain, in what has been a rolling purge by Hegseth of senior officers—particularly those close to the secretary of the Army, Dan Driscoll.

Why were these men fired while U.S. forces are fighting overseas? The Defense Department has given no official reason for their dismissals, but likely they are the latest victims of Hegseth’s vindictive struggles with the Army, which he feels treated him poorly—the service “spit me out,” he said in his 2024 book—as he struggles in a job for which he remains singularly unqualified.

Hegseth began his tenure by acting against what he sees as a Pentagon infested with DEI hires. He pushed for the removal of the then–chairman of the Joint Chiefs, C. Q. Brown, who is Black, and he fired a raft of female military leaders, replacing them all with men. But dumping the Army chief of staff in the middle of a war, without explanation, is a reckless move even by Hegseth’s standards. George is a decorated combat veteran who was slated to stay in his job until 2027, and he has never publicly feuded with Hegseth—despite having good reason to do so.\

On Trump's bad address to the nation:

A speech that should have been a clear explanation of why the United States is fighting a nation of 92 million people began instead in shambolic style. He discussed the operation that captured the president of Venezuela, perhaps hoping to make listeners believe that the Iran war will be a similarly short operation. He then said that Iran has taken losses never seen “in the history of warfare”—as if the destruction of, say, the Axis in World War II had never happened.

Trump offered little that was new, instead repeating the same lines from a short video presentation the night that he ordered attacks on the Islamic Republic, more than one month ago. He listed—rightly and correctly—the various offenses that the fanatical Iranian regime has perpetrated against the United States and other countries for nearly a half century. But he couldn’t help himself: He patted himself on the back for killing the Iranian terror mastermind Qassem Soleimani in his first term, and for canceling the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by Barack Obama. (“Barack Hussein Obama,” of course.) The United States, Trump claimed in a strange moment, had emptied out all the banks in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia as part of that deal—“all the cash they had”—to send that “green, green” currency to Iran.

 

Bye Bye Bondi

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist.  Especially Epstein.

 Josh Dawsey et al. at WSJ:

On Wednesday morning, Attorney General Pam Bondi descended the sun-splashed steps of the White House with President Trump, smiling at him just before entering the presidential limousine for a two-mile ride to the Supreme Court.

It was on that short ride in “The Beast” when Bondi learned she was being removed from her job.

During the drive, Trump told her, “I think it’s time,” she would later tell an associate.

The ensuing hours were as awkward and chaotic as Bondi’s 14-month tenure as the nation’s top law-enforcement official. Trump and Bondi briefly sat near each other during the Supreme Court hearing on birthright citizenship, but the president soon switched chairs. Later, Bondi would ask Trump if she could keep her job until the summer. The president declined.

Trump had decided earlier in the week that he was replacing her. He was frustrated she didn’t do more to contain fallout from the department’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein investigative files and incensed that she had not successfully prosecuted a number of his political enemies. Trump has floated Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin as attorney general to other advisers but hasn’t decided on anyone, according to White House officials. He is also interested in evaluating how soon-to-be interim Attorney General Todd Blanche performs, they said.

Bondi and Trump had talked about her leaving since around the beginning of the year, according to a person familiar with the discussions, and he had regularly expressed dissatisfaction with the speed at which she handled his agenda. She is expected to leave the Justice Department in about a month.

On numerous occasions, she seemed to go out of her way to appease him, launching what many prosecutors in the department viewed as weak probes of Trump’s favored targets. Some of those cases were later blocked by judges or grand juries. The Justice Department even had a giant banner with Trump’s face on it hung on its main building, an unprecedented move that illustrated his control over the agency. Last week, she appointed a prosecutor to look into allegations of election fraud in 2020 in a bid to address another gripe the president had.

It was never enough.


Wednesday, April 1, 2026

Trump v. Mail Ballots

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American PoliticsThe second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments.

Rick Hasen:

President Trump has signed a second executive order purporting to regulate federal elections (especially mail ballots). His first executive order from March 2025 has already been enjoined in key parts for violating the Constitution. As Judge Kollar-Kotelly wrote in one of the opinions, “Put simply, our Constitution does not allow the President to impose unilateral changes to federal election procedures.” This one is likely to fare no better before the courts.

... 

The basic idea of the actual EO that the President issued on Tuesday is this: DHS is going to craft a list of citizens above the age of 18. States will get that list. If a state does not submit a list (presumably to be compared to the federal list [UPDATE: See here on the relationship between state and federal lists]), and give the post office the citizen-approved list of voters (and do other things like add bar codes to mailed ballots), USPS will not deliver the mail. (USPS would have to craft regulations to implement this.)

To put this in plain terms: the order would use the USPS, which is not under the direct control of the President, to interfere with a state’s lawful transmission of ballots. If the state does not comply with these rules, federal law would purport to interfere with a state’s conduct of its own elections.

The President does not have the authority to do this. He cites to two federal voting statutes and the part of the Constitution that says that the United States shall guarantee to each state a Republican form of government. These sources do not give him authority to force states to change their election rules.

...

Finally, the timing here makes this virtually impossible to implement in time for November’s elections. This calls for rulemaking and DHS compiling these lists. These will take time. There will be inaccuracies or worse, and there will be lawsuits, many lawsuits. It seems highly unlikely any of this could be implemented for 2026, even if it were not blocked by courts.

It raises the question if this is just more election denialism theater. That’s what it looks like, rather than a serious effort to craft a law that could be implemented and withstand constitutional scrutiny.

Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Dark Ending to March 2026

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments -- now including a war in the Middle East.

Alexandra Banner at CNN:

Gas prices in the US hit an average of $4 per gallon today, their highest level since 2022, according to AAA. Average prices at the pump are now higher than at any point during President Donald Trump's two terms. Gas prices have surged since the start of the war in the Middle East, rising by about $1 per gallon over the past month. Oil prices also rose slightly today, a day after US crude oil settled above $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022. This comes after Trump threatened that he would "obliterate" Iran's energy sources if a deal to end the war is not reached and the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, deepening fears the conflict could escalate further.

Gallup:

 


Monday, March 30, 2026

Bizarro GOP Plan: Cut Health Spending to Pay for an Unpopular War


In early February, a YouGov poll found majorities of Americans supported increasing government spending on veterans (74%), Social Security (69%), Medicare (67%), aid to the poor (64%), Medicaid (59%), and the environment (52%).   Only 34% wanted to increase defense spending -- that that was before the Iran war, which is unpopular.  Last week, Pew found 61% disapproved of Trump's handling of the war, and 59% said that US made the wrong decision to use military force in Iran.

In that light, the House GOP's spending plans sound politically insane.  Peter Sullivan at Axios:
Republicans are considering reductions in federal health spending to help pay for a budget bill containing as much as $200 billion to fund the Iran war and immigration enforcement.

Why it matters: New efforts to rein in health programs are sure to be controversial and open the GOP up to election-year attacks that they're cutting health care to pay for an unpopular war.

Driving the news: Top House Republicans are looking at health care offsets addressing fraud in federal programs, as they did during last year's debate over the budget law that made deep cuts to federal Medicaid spending and imposed first-time work requirements.


Sunday, March 29, 2026

Ominous

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments -- now including a war in the Middle East.

Samuel Benson and Liz Crampton at Politico:

In Nevada, a gallon of gas is approaching $5. In Pennsylvania, farmers are fretting about the prices of fertilizer. And in Michigan, supply chain woes are throwing a wrench into the manufacturing and auto industry operations.

One month into the war in Iran, a new political reality is sinking in for Republicans in these and other battlegrounds: The war may not end as quickly as they initially hoped, and the literal and figurative costs keep rising.

Una Hajdari at EuroNews:

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has warned that financial markets are underestimating the severity of the economic fallout of the Iran war, saying investors may be in denial about how long the disruption will last.

Speaking to The Economist, Lagarde said the conflict represented "a real shock" that was "probably beyond what we can imagine at the moment."

She pushed back on market optimism, arguing that technical experts saw no quick return to normality given the extent of damage to energy infrastructure. "Most people are actually talking about years," she highlighted.
Lagarde also warned that the true economic consequences were only becoming clear gradually, citing supply chain knock-on effects that markets had yet to fully price in.

She pointed to helium — much of which transits the Strait of Hormuz — as an example of a critical input for microchip production whose scarcity was not yet reflected in semiconductor costs.

"We are learning almost bit by bit, day by day, what the actual consequences will be."

 

Saturday, March 28, 2026

Trump Doesn't Listen

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments -- now including a war in the Middle East.


 SCOTT WALDMAN, BEN JOHANSEN and SOPHIA CAI at POLITICO:

NATE SWANSON spent nearly two decades in the U.S. government, including most recently as the National Security Council’s director for Iran. Days before the U.S. bombed Iran, Swanson published a piece predicting that Iran would do exactly what it has done should the U.S. attack.

That’s expertise President DONALD TRUMP had available to him — until Swanson, an BARACK OBAMA holdover, was “forced out” of his post after a critical tweet from LAURA LOOMER, Swanson said. Neither the White House nor Loomer returned a request for comment.

In his piece for Foreign Policy published Feb. 24, Swanson wrote that Iran would not capitulate after a bombing campaign, but rather escalate and “target global oil flows and international shipping, sending energy prices up and creating a serious political liability for Trump.” And indeed, Iran has made scattershot attacks on energy targets and others across the region, as well as throttling passage through the Strait of Hormuz by threatening attacks on ships.

In an interview with POLITICO this week, Swanson predicted that the Trump administration’s negotiations with Iran will not go well because both sides are “irrationally confident” in their positions. Neither side seems willing to find an off-ramp at this point, he said.
...

Trump keeps saying Iran’s response has surprised him — that no one told him Iran would retaliate against regional energy infrastructure. How does that kind of comment from the president sit with you?

"Obviously, it’s not true. There are many people in the government who told him that there was high risk involved. He just chose not to listen to them. And as someone who was forced out of the government and wrote pretty much exactly what was fairly obviously going to happen, that doesn’t sit super well."


Among the people to whom he does not listen is former Secretary of Defense Mattis.