Bread and Butter, War and Peace

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

 For Republican prospects in 2026, the economy is a problem.

 CNN:

• The US economy added just 22,000 jobs last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% from 4.2%.

• Friday’s report is the first data under a new leader at the BLS, after President Donald Trump fired the previous one for producing data that Trump baselessly claimed must be “a scam.” Just 73,000 positions were added in July and previous monthly totals were substantially revised down.

• Friday’s data was far worse than expected, with economists having forecast around 76,500 jobs added in August.

• It’s the latest snapshot of the US economy under Trump’s aggressive trade agenda, as inflation continues to tick up and there are now more unemployed people than jobs for them.

Dubious military action can also pose a problem.

 Eric Schmitt, Helene Cooper, Alan Feuer, Charlie Savage and Edward Wong at NYT:

The Trump administration declared the start of a new and potentially violent campaign against Venezuelan cartels on Wednesday, defending a deadly U.S. military strike on a boat that officials said was carrying drugs even as specialists in the law of war questioned the legality of the attack.

The U.S. Navy has long intercepted and boarded ships suspected of smuggling drugs in international waters, typically with a Coast Guard officer temporarily in charge to invoke law enforcement authority. Tuesday’s direct attack in the Caribbean was a marked departure from that decades-long approach.

The administration has said 11 people were aboard the vessel. It was unclear whether they were given a chance to surrender before the United States attacked.

The Trump administration has not offered any legal rationale. But Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in an appearance on “Fox & Friends” on Wednesday that administration officials “knew exactly who was in that boat” and “exactly what they were doing,” although he did not offer evidence.

...

Congress has not authorized any armed conflict against Tren de Aragua or Venezuela, and several legal experts said they were unaware of any precedent for claiming that a country could invoke self-defense as a basis to target drug trafficking suspects with lethal force.

Split Screen

 Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.

From Waging Nonviolence:

April Rubin, Rebecca Falconer at Axios:

Millions of protesters across the U.S. took to the streets in demonstrations against the Trump administration on Saturday, in stark counter-programming to the president's Washington, D.C., military parade that evening.

Why it matters: "No Kings" protest organizers said the widespread movement marked the biggest single-day anti-President Trump protest during his second administration.

...

State of play: More than 5 million people took part in "No Kings" demonstrations in over 2,100 cities and towns across the country, with an additional 300 "Kick Out the Clowns" rallies being held.Philadelphia saw more than 100,000 attendees and Chicago 75,000, while smaller towns such as Pentland, Michigan, reported 400 in a town of 800, organizers said.

Newsmax is saying about 10,000 there. That’s small for some protest rallies today and a huge waste of our military $$$ when the world is on fire… https://t.co/AP7Rh2NWu3

— Barbara Comstock (@BarbaraComstock) June 14, 2025

Newsom v. Trump

 Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.

Trump likes riots.  He federalized National Guard units and sent them to Los Angeles, hoping to escalate the disorder.  He got his wish.

JACK BLANCHARD with DASHA BURNS  at POLITICO:

Let’s be clear: These are precisely the sorts of scenes — U.S. troops assisting with immigration raids in liberal cities — that Dems have feared since Trump’s election. They are also precisely the target of California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s request for an emergency injunction against the way Trump is deploying military force in his state, per POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein. District Judge Charles Breyer — the Bill Clinton-appointed brother of former Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer — will hear that case tomorrow. It could be quite a moment.

We need to talk about Gavin: Newsom, for his part, delivered a pretty extraordinary address to the nation last night, in which he sought to position himself as the leader of America’s anti-Trump opposition. Speaking directly to camera in a crisp, eight-minute monologue, Newsom denounced Trump’s aggressive deployment of ICE officers and military forces in LA — before raising his eyes to horizons far beyond his own state.

“This isn’t just about protests here in Los Angeles,” Newsom told America. “This is about all of us. This is about you. California may be first, but it clearly will not end here. Other states are next. Democracy is next. Democracy is under assault before our eyes.”

Going viral: The video is getting plenty of love from Dems online — hitting more than a million views on the MeidasTouch YouTube channel inside three hours last night. And it was on the front pages of both the NYT and WaPo early this morning. “I for one am very happy to see somebody that isn’t afraid to speak up,” Ana Navarro told CNN. “I have been so thirsty for somebody that is not cowardly, bending the knee and selling out to Donald Trump as he does all of this to America.” Even the WSJ describes Newsom as “the leader of the opposition.”

This is all fascinating stuff for kremlinologists of the fledgling 2028 Democratic race. Playbook noted yesterday that politicians aligning themselves with anti-ICE protesters may be taking on political risk come a general election, but Newsom is playing a different game right now — and playing it well. He even leaned into Trump’s threat to have him arrested, spying the same political opportunity enjoyed by Trump himself in 2023. (POLITICO’s Jeremy White and Melanie Mason take a closer look at Newsom’s leadership prospects here.)

Pete Hegseth: Security Risk

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.

Warren P. Strobel,Missy Ryan and Hannah Natanson at WP:

The Yemen attack timeline that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth posted to a Signal chat group would have been so highly classified, under Pentagon guidelines, that the details should have been restricted to a special, compartmented channel with its own code word and with access tightly limited, according to former Defense Department officials.

Hegseth and other senior Trump administration officials have denied that the data they shared in a Signal group, which included the timing of weapons strikes against Yemen’s Houthis and intelligence information shared by Israel on the whereabouts of a top Houthi operative, was classified.

“These are indeed highly detailed operational plans for war,” said one of the former officials, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity. “Twenty-five years, I have never known them not to be classified. And usually this operational level of detail is further restricted to those with a need-to-know.”

Katherine Long et al. at WSJ:

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who is facing scrutiny over his handling of details of a military strike, brought his wife, a former Fox News producer, to two meetings with foreign military counterparts where sensitive information was discussed, according to multiple people who were present or had knowledge of the discussions.

One of the meetings, a high-level discussion at the Pentagon on March 6 between Hegseth and U.K. Secretary of Defense John Healey, took place at a sensitive moment for the trans-Atlantic alliance, one day after the U.S. said it had cut off military intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The group that met at the Pentagon, which included Adm. Tony Radakin, the head of the U.K.’s armed forces, discussed the U.S. rationale behind that decision, as well as future military collaboration between the two allies, according to people familiar with the meeting.

A secretary can invite anyone to meetings with visiting counterparts, but attendee lists are usually carefully limited to those who need to be there and attendees are typically expected to possess security clearances given the delicate nature of the discussions, according to defense officials and people familiar with the meeting. There is often security near the meeting space to keep away uninvited attendees.

"We Are Currently Clean on OPSEC"

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.

Jeffrey Goldberg at The Atlantic tells how a Trump official mistakenly put him on a Signal chat about top secret plans to bomb Houthi targets across Yemen.  The chat took place on Signal, a commercial app.  The case reveals astonishing incompetence and recklessness at the highest levels.

Hegseth denied texting war plans.

He lied.

The Atlantic has just published excerpts from chats:

At 11:44 a.m. eastern time, Hegseth posted in the chat, in all caps, “TEAM UPDATE:”

The text beneath this began, “TIME NOW (1144et): Weather is FAVORABLE. Just CONFIRMED w/CENTCOM we are a GO for mission launch.” Centcom, or Central Command, is the military’s combatant command for the Middle East. The Hegseth text continues:
“1215et: F-18s LAUNCH (1st strike package)”
“1345: ‘Trigger Based’ F-18 1st Strike Window Starts (Target Terrorist is @ his Known Location so SHOULD BE ON TIME – also, Strike Drones Launch (MQ-9s)”

Let us pause here for a moment to underscore a point. This Signal message shows that the U.S. secretary of defense texted a group that included a phone number unknown to him—Goldberg’s cellphone—at 11:44 a.m. This was 31 minutes before the first U.S. warplanes launched, and two hours and one minute before the beginning of a period in which a primary target, the Houthi “Target Terrorist,” was expected to be killed by these American aircraft. If this text had been received by someone hostile to American interests—or someone merely indiscreet, and with access to social media—the Houthis would have had time to prepare for what was meant to be a surprise attack on their strongholds. The consequences for American pilots could have been catastrophic.

The Hegseth text then continued:
“1410: More F-18s LAUNCH (2nd strike package)”
“1415: Strike Drones on Target (THIS IS WHEN THE FIRST BOMBS WILL DEFINITELY DROP, pending earlier ‘Trigger Based’ targets)”
“1536 F-18 2nd Strike Starts – also, first sea-based Tomahawks launched.”
“MORE TO FOLLOW (per timeline)”
“We are currently clean on OPSEC”—that is, operational security.
“Godspeed to our Warriors.”

Shortly after, Vice President J. D. Vance texted the group, “I will say a prayer for victory.”

At 1:48 p.m., Waltz sent the following text, containing real-time intelligence about conditions at an attack site, apparently in Sanaa: “VP. Building collapsed. Had multiple positive ID. Pete, Kurilla, the IC, amazing job.” Waltz was referring here to Hegseth; General Michael E. Kurilla, the commander of Central Command; and the intelligence community, or IC. The reference to “multiple positive ID” suggests that U.S. intelligence had ascertained the identities of the Houthi target, or targets, using either human or technical assets.

Six minutes later, the vice president, apparently confused by Waltz’s message, wrote, “What?”

At 2 p.m., Waltz responded: “Typing too fast. The first target – their top missile guy – we had positive ID of him walking into his girlfriend’s building and it’s now collapsed.”

Vance responded a minute later: “Excellent.” Thirty-five minutes after that, Ratcliffe, the CIA director, wrote, “A good start,” which Waltz followed with a text containing a fist emoji, an American-flag emoji, and a fire emoji. The Houthi-run Yemeni health ministry reported that at least 53 people were killed in the strikes, a number that has not been independently verified.

Later that afternoon, Hegseth posted: “CENTCOM was/is on point.” Notably, he then told the group that attacks would be continuing. “Great job all. More strikes ongoing for hours tonight, and will provide full initial report tomorrow. But on time, on target, and good readouts so far.”

Trump and the Bureaucracy

Our next book is titled The Comeback: the 2024 Elections and American Politics.

With Vance casting the tiebreaker, the Senate confirmed Hegseth as SECDEF.  McConnell voted no.

“Stewardship of the United States Armed Forces, and of the complex bureaucracy that exists to support them, is a massive and solemn responsibility. At the gravest moments, under the weight of this public trust, even the most capable and well-qualified leaders to set foot in the Pentagon have done so with great humility – from George Marshall harnessing American enterprise and Atlantic allies for the Cold War, to Caspar Weinberger orchestrating the Reagan build-up, to Bob Gates earning the wartime trust of two Commanders-in-Chief, of both parties.

“Mere desire to be a ‘change agent’ is not enough to fill these shoes. And ‘dust on boots’ fails even to distinguish this nominee from multiple predecessors of the last decade. Nor is it a precondition for success. Secretaries with distinguished combat experience and time in the trenches have failed at the job.

“Effective management of nearly 3 million military and civilian personnel, an annual budget of nearly $1 trillion, and alliances and partnerships around the world is a daily test with staggering consequences for the security of the American people and our global interests.

“Mr. Hegseth has failed, as yet, to demonstrate that he will pass this test. But as he assumes office, the consequences of failure are as high as they have ever been.

David Nakamura,  Lisa Rein and Matt Viser at WP:

The White House late Friday fired the independent inspectors general of at least 12 major federal agencies in a purge that could clear the way for President Donald Trump to install loyalists in the crucial role of identifying fraud, waste and abuse in the government.

The inspectors general were notified by emails from the White House personnel director that they had been terminated immediately, according to people familiar with the actions, who like others in this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private messages.

The dismissals appeared to violate federal law, which requires Congress to receive 30 days’ notice of any intent to fire a Senate-confirmed inspector general.

 Lisa FriedmanHiroko Tabuchi and Coral Davenport at NYT:

President Trump is stocking the Environmental Protection Agency with officials who have served as lawyers and lobbyists for the oil and chemical industries, many of whom worked in his first administration to weaken climate and pollution protections.

Lee Zeldin, Mr. Trump’s choice to lead the E.P.A., has little experience with environmental policy. He will be expected to hit the ground running, though, to fulfill Mr. Trump’s fire hose of orders directing the agency to cut regulations.

Mr. Zeldin already has marshaled more than a dozen deputies and senior advisers. The quick appointments are in contrast to Mr. Trump’s first term, when many Republicans hesitated to join the administration and internal squabbling delayed the selection of the deputy administrator as well as the chief air pollution regulator for nearly a year.

The top appointees, who have already moved into their offices, include David Fotouhi, Mr. Zeldin’s second-in-command, a lawyer who recently challenged a ban on asbestos; Alex Dominguez, a former oil lobbyist who will work on automobile emissions; and Aaron Szabo, a lobbyist for both the oil and chemical industries who is expected to be the top air pollution regulator.

Trump Threatens Allies

Our next book will look at the 2024 election and its aftermath.

Canada and Denmark are NATO allies. David E. Sanger and Michael Shear at NYT:

President-elect Donald J. Trump refused on Tuesday to rule out the use of military or economic coercion to force Panama to give up control of the canal that America built more than a century ago and to push Denmark to sell Greenland to the United States.

In a rambling, hourlong news conference, Mr. Trump repeatedly returned to the theme of American sacrifice in building the canal and accused China, falsely, of operating it today. When pressed on the question of whether he might order the military to force Panama to give it up — in violation of treaties and other agreements reached during the Carter administration — or to do the same with Greenland, he said: “No, I can’t assure you on either of those two.”

“We need them for economic security — the Panama Canal was built for our military,” he said. Asked again if he would rule out the use of military force, he said: “I’m not going to commit to that. You might have to do something.”

Mr. Trump’s statements propelled his repeated calls for expanding American territory to a new level, one that is bound to roil three American allies — Panama; Denmark, which handles Greenland’s foreign and security affairs; and Canada, which he has mocked as America’s “51st State.” On Tuesday he made clear, though, that he was not joking, suggesting that if Canada remained a sovereign state the financial cost to its trading relationship with the United States could be crushing.

The Senate Rejected John Tower for a Lot Less

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Our next book is about the 2024 election. The consequences of that election are coming into view. Trump is nominating Fox pundit Pete Hegseth to be secretary of defense.

Jane Mayer at The New Yorker:

A previously undisclosed whistle-blower report on Hegseth’s tenure as the president of Concerned Veterans for America, from 2013 until 2016, describes him as being repeatedly intoxicated while acting in his official capacity—to the point of needing to be carried out of the organization’s events. The detailed seven-page report—which was compiled by multiple former C.V.A. employees and sent to the organization’s senior management in February, 2015—states that, at one point, Hegseth had to be restrained while drunk from joining the dancers on the stage of a Louisiana strip club, where he had brought his team. The report also says that Hegseth, who was married at the time, and other members of his management team sexually pursued the organization’s female staffers, whom they divided into two groups—the “party girls” and the “not party girls.” In addition, the report asserts that, under Hegseth’s leadership, the organization became a hostile workplace that ignored serious accusations of impropriety, including an allegation made by a female employee that another employee on Hegseth’s staff had attempted to sexually assault her at the Louisiana strip club. In a separate letter of complaint, which was sent to the organization in late 2015, a different former employee described Hegseth being at a bar in the early-morning hours of May 29, 2015, while on an official tour through Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio, drunkenly chanting “Kill All Muslims! Kill All Muslims!”

In response to questions from this magazine, Tim Parlatore, a lawyer for Hegseth, replied with the following statement, which he said came from “an advisor” to Hegseth: “We’re not going to comment on outlandish claims laundered through The New Yorker by a petty and jealous disgruntled former associate of Mr. Hegseth’s. Get back to us when you try your first attempt at actual journalism.”

Judd Legum:

Hegseth published a column in college that claimed having sex with an unconscious woman is not rape

While he was a student at Princeton in 2002, Hegseth was the publisher of the Princeton Tory, a right-wing student newspaper. In the September 2002 edition of the publication, flagged for Popular Information by Will Davis of Arc Initiatives, Hegseth published a column that claimed having intercourse with an unconscious woman was not rape. The columnist claimed that rape required both the failure to consent and "duress," and women who are passed out cannot experience "duress":

[A] bemusing yet mandatory orientation program, revolved entirely around whether an instance of sexual intercourse constituted “rape.” The actual instance portrayed in the skit was in fact not a clear case of rape – at least not in my home state. (In short, though intercourse was not consented to, there was no duress because the girl drank herself into unconsciousness. Both criteria must be satisfied for rape. Unfortunately, the panelists never cited any legal definition of rape.) Yet the panel – all females in the session I attended – claimed that rape it was.

In an introductory note to students in the September edition, Hegseth wrote that he hoped the Princeton Tory would "help shape the way you view the world." 

 

Trump to Pentagon: Drop Dead

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Our next book is about the 2024 election. The consequences of that election are coming into view.

Vivian Salama, Nancy A. Youssef and Lara Seligman at WSJ:

The Trump transition team is considering a draft executive order that establishes a “warrior board” of retired senior military personnel with the power to review three- and four-star officers and to recommend removals of any deemed unfit for leadership.

If Donald Trump approves the order, it could fast-track the removal of generals and admirals found to be “lacking in requisite leadership qualities,” according to a draft of the order reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. But it could also create a chilling effect on top military officers, given the president-elect’s past vow to fire “woke generals,” referring to officers seen as promoting diversity in the ranks at the expense of military readiness.

As commander in chief, Trump can fire any officer at will, but an outside board whose members he appoints would bypass the Pentagon’s regular promotion system, signaling across the military that he intends to purge a number of generals and admirals.

James Bickerton at Newsweek:

Donald Trump's appointment of Pete Hegseth, a Fox News commentator, and former National Guard officer, as his secretary of defense has sparked controversy within military circles, with one commentator describing him as "the least qualified nominee for SecDef in American history."

Hegseth's selection was announced by Trump in a social media post on Tuesday evening. The president-elect said: "Pete has spent his entire life as a Warrior for the Troops, and for the Country. Pete is tough, smart and a true believer in America First."

During his first term, Trump had an often tempestuous relationship with the two defense secretaries he appointed, Jim Mattis and Mark Esper, both of whom became highly critical of their former boss after leaving office. Speaking to podcaster Joe Rogan in October, Trump said his biggest mistake in the White House had been appointing "bad people," including "neocons," to serve under him.

...

Reacting to Hegseth's appointment on X, formerly Twitter, Paul Rieckhoff, founder of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America Association, commented: "I first met Hegseth when he started running Vets for Freedom around 2007. He is a highly effective and ferocious media, culture and political warrior for MAGA. And beyond loyal to and trusted by Trump.

"I figured Trump would pick probably pick him for Chief of Staff or Press Secretary. But this... "Hegseth is undoubtedly the least qualified nominee for SecDef in American history. And the most overtly political. Brace yourself, America."

In a statement Paul Eaton, chairman of VoteVets, a group which aims to support veterans and fight "for progressive values," said: "Pete Hegseth is wholly unqualified to head the Department of Defense and hold the lives of our troops in his hands. Period. Nothing more needs to be said."

According to Politico, when asked for their reaction to Hegseth's appointment, one defense industry lobbyist commented: "who the f*** is this guy?" adding they'd been hoping for "someone who actually has an extensive background in defense."

 

 

General Kelly Goes on the Record

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. 

 Some Republican leaders -- and a measurable number of rank-and-file voters -- are open to violent rebellion, coups, and secession.  

Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie.  And we now know how close he came to subverting the Constitution.   

He is planning an authoritarian agenda and would take care to eliminate any internal dissent.

General Kelly thinks Trump is a fascist. Michael S. Schmidt at NYT:

In response to a question about whether he thought Mr. Trump was a fascist, Mr. Kelly first read aloud a definition of fascism that he had found online.

“Well, looking at the definition of fascism: It’s a far-right authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy,” he said.

He added: “Certainly the former president is in the far-right area, he’s certainly an authoritarian, admires people who are dictators — he has said that. So he certainly falls into the general definition of fascist, for sure.”

Jeffrey Goldberg at The Atlantic:

In their book, The Divider: Trump in the White House, Peter Baker and Susan Glasser reported that Trump asked John Kelly, his chief of staff at the time, “Why can’t you be like the German generals?” Trump, at various points, had grown frustrated with military officials he deemed disloyal and disobedient. (Throughout the course of his presidency, Trump referred to flag officers as “my generals.”) According to Baker and Glasser, Kelly explained to Trump that German generals “tried to kill Hitler three times and almost pulled it off.” This correction did not move Trump to reconsider his view: “No, no, no, they were totally loyal to him,” the president responded.

This week, I asked Kelly about their exchange. He told me that when Trump raised the subject of “German generals,” Kelly responded by asking, “‘Do you mean Bismarck’s generals?’” He went on: “I mean, I knew he didn’t know who Bismarck was, or about the Franco-Prussian War. I said, ‘Do you mean the kaiser’s generals? Surely you can’t mean Hitler’s generals? And he said, ‘Yeah, yeah, Hitler’s generals.’ I explained to him that Rommel had to commit suicide after taking part in a plot against Hitler.” Kelly told me Trump was not acquainted with Rommel.

Kelly—a retired Marine general who, as a young man, had volunteered to serve in Vietnam despite actually suffering from bone spurs—said in an interview for the CNN reporter Jim Sciutto’s book, The Return of Great Powers, that Trump praised aspects of Hitler’s leadership. “He said, ‘Well, but Hitler did some good things,’” Kelly recalled. “I said, ‘Well, what?’ And he said, ‘Well, (Hitler) rebuilt the economy.’ But what did he do with that rebuilt economy? He turned it against his own people and against the world.” Kelly admonished Trump: “I said, ‘Sir, you can never say anything good about the guy. Nothing.’”

 

Trump Fascism

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. 

 Some Republican leaders -- and a measurable number of rank-and-file voters -- are open to violent rebellion, coups, and secession.  

Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie.  And we now know how close he came to subverting the Constitution.   

He is planning an authoritarian agenda and would take care to eliminate any internal dissent.

Tom Nichols at The Atlantic:

Over the past week, Donald Trump has been on a fascist romp. At rallies in Colorado and California, he amped up his usual rants, and added a rancid grace note by suggesting that a woman heckler should “get the hell knocked out of her” by her mother after she gets back home. But on Sunday morning, he outdid himself in an interview on Fox News, by saying that “the enemy within”—Americans he described as “radical left lunatics,” including Representative Adam Schiff of California, whom he mentioned by name—are more dangerous than Russia or China, and could be “very easily handled” by the National Guard or the U.S. military.

This wasn’t the first time Trump suggested using America’s armed forces against its own people: As president, he thought of the military as his personal guard and regularly fantasized about commanding “his generals” to crush dissent, which is one reason former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley reportedly told Bob Woodward that he sees Trump as “fascist to his core.”

Trump v. the US Army

Our books have discussed Trump's low character, which was on display this month At times, his crudeness has helped him appear transgressive.  Lately, it has hurt him.  If he wants to appeal to veterans, active-duty military members, and their families, it is hard to think of a worse approach than belittling the Medal of Honor and disrespecting Arlington National Cemetery. Picking a fight with the Army did not work for Joe McCarthy in 1954.

Everything about the Trump Arlington story is bananas, but maybe the *most* bananas part was the actual plan itself: to secretly film a fake established memorial event & then claim Harris refused to attend. https://t.co/p36H5tXjzg pic.twitter.com/eqCV7lHU97

— Schrödinger's Sneetch Belly (@RTodKelly) August 29, 2024

In a new, official statement, the Army is defending its staff member who found herself in a confrontation with Trump campaign employees at Arlington National Cemetery: pic.twitter.com/mUUk8vwv6Z

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) August 29, 2024

Reposting this hoping to trigger the hacks at @SecArmy https://t.co/6ePp2C8jMb

— Chris LaCivita (@LaCivitaC) August 29, 2024

Trump, Vance, Unhinged

 Our books have discussed Trump's low character, which was on display this week. JD Vance is emulating him.

JD Vance: “You’re acting like Donald Trump filmed a TV commercial at a gravesite.”

Donald Trump: “Here’s the commercial I filmed at a gravesite.”

No notes. Y’all are doing great. pic.twitter.com/xQLu6ligiW https://t.co/EhwlhvBCbF

— Ms. M 🪷 Google Project 2025 (@MsMalarkey24) August 29, 2024

 Maegan Vazquez at WP:

“Kamala Harris is disgraceful. We’re going to talk about a story out of those 13 brave, innocent Americans who lost their lives? It’s that Kamala Harris is so asleep at the wheel that she won’t even do an investigation into what happened,” he asserted, though there have been extensive federal investigations into the Abbey Gate bombing.

Vance accused Harris of criticizing Trump’s visit to the cemetery, saying: “And she wants to yell at Donald Trump because he showed up? She can — she can go to hell.”

Trump Threatens Mark Zuckerberg With Prison For 'The Rest of His Life' If He Uses Facebook to 'Cheat' in 2024: 'We Are Watching Him Closely' https://t.co/V2Tnl5U0ms

— Mediaite (@Mediaite) August 29, 2024

Hafiz Rashid at TNR:

On Wednesday morning, Donald Trump had some kind of meltdown on his Truth Social profile, all before 10 a.m.

His many posts and “ReTruths” were conspiracy laden, crude, and calling for the death or imprisonment of his enemies. One showed Harris, Bill Gates, Anthony Fauci, and other Democrats wearing orange jumpsuits captioned with: “HOW TO ACTUALLY ‘FIX THE SYSTEM.’” Multiple posts had QAnon themes, particularly the slogan “WWG1WGA.” Other posts called for a military tribunal for former President Barack Obama, and attacked the FBI, the Justice Department, and the House January 6 committee.

When his posts weren’t full on fascist, they were simply vulgar instead. One such post showed an old photograph of Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton together, with a comment below reading “Funny how [oral gratification] impacted their careers differently…”

If Trump’s posting binge is a reflection of his state of mind, it’s not a good one. The Republican presidential nominee and convicted felon has experienced many setbacks as of late. On Tuesday, special counsel Jack Smith filed a superseding indictment against Trump for his role in trying to overthrow the 2020 federal election.

What Donald Trump's verified account on Truth Social is reposting pic.twitter.com/paMBc6HhIN

— Azi™️ (@Azi) August 28, 2024

 

Team Trump Disrespects Arlington Cemetery

 In Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics, we look at Trump's dishonesty and disregard for the rule of law.

Quil Lawrence and Tom Bowman at NPR:

Two members of Donald Trump's campaign staff had a verbal and physical altercation Monday with an official at Arlington National Cemetery, where the former president participated in a wreath-laying ceremony, NPR has learned.

A source with knowledge of the incident said the cemetery official tried to prevent Trump staffers from filming and photographing in a section where recent U.S. casualties are buried. The source said Arlington officials had made clear that only cemetery staff members would be authorized to take photographs or film in the area, known as Section 60.

When the cemetery official tried to prevent Trump campaign staff from entering Section 60, campaign staff verbally abused and pushed the official aside, according to the source.

Trump today with thumbs up at the grave of a soldier. Disgraceful. pic.twitter.com/scwq6bVhFF

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) August 26, 2024

It’s crazy that any normal person knows the rules of Arlington National Cemetery and then there’s Trump and his goons….so @ArlingtonNatl had to issue a statement about those disgusting photo ops Trump did there pic.twitter.com/W18jpZwVnm

— Wu Tang is for the Children (@WUTangKids) August 28, 2024

Trump Medal

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.  And in just a few weeks, the race has changed. Trump thought the age issue would be his greatest asset.  Now that he is facing an opponent 18 years younger and increasingly showing his 78 years, it has become one of his greatest weaknesses.

Just as Republican oppo researchers were attacking Tim Walz's accounts of his military service, Trump again disrespected veterans.  Travis Gettys at Raw Story:

Donald Trump sparked an outcry from military veterans and many others by proclaiming that the civilian Presidential Medal of Freedom as "better" than the Medal of Honor for military valor.

The Republican presidential nominee praised Miriam Adelson, the widow of the late GOP megadonor Sheldon Adelson, during a speech Thursday evening at his New Jersey golf resort, where he recalled awarding her the civilian honor after the couple had poured millions of dollars into his first campaign.

“I watched Sheldon sitting so proud in the White House when we gave Miriam the Presidential Medal of Freedom," Trump said. "That’s the highest award you can get as a civilian, it’s the equivalent of the Congressional Medal of Honor."

The Medal of Honor is the highest military honor bestowed for valor in combat, and it's often mistakenly called, as Trump did, the Congressional Medal of Honor.

"But civilian version, it’s actually much better because everyone [who] gets the Congressional Medal of Honor, they're soldiers," Trump continued. "They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets or they’re dead. She gets it, and she’s a healthy, beautiful woman, and they’re rated equal, but she got the Presidential Medal of Freedom, and she got it for — and that’s through committees and everything else.”

This might have ended the Trump campaign. A lot of national-level Republican veterans I worked with to help pass the PACT Act are pissed off tonight. The group chat is wild. https://t.co/qWEawaKqrV

— Travis Akers (@travisakers) August 16, 2024

Trump: When we gave her the Presidential Medal of Freedom… It’s the equivalent of the Congressional Medal of Honor— it’s actually much better because everyone who gets the Congressional Medal, they’re soldiers. They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many… pic.twitter.com/a766KxAC2e

— Acyn (@Acyn) August 16, 2024

OMG! Read this statement from the VFW on Trump’s disgusting comments about veterans and service members last night. This is fantastic. Every American needs to see this. pic.twitter.com/F7rBjGbow2

— Harry Sisson (@harryjsisson) August 17, 2024

Trump Interview and a NATO Kicker

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  The 2024 race has begun.  Biden is calling Trump a threat to democracy.

 Former President Donald Trump sat down for a wide-ranging interview with TIME at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Fla., on April 12, and a follow-up conversation by phone on April 27.

You would use the military inland as well as at the border?

Trump: I don't think I'd have to do that. I think the National Guard would be able to do that. If they weren't able to, then I’d use the military. You know, we have a different situation. We have millions of people now that we didn't have two years ago.

Sir, the Posse Comitatus Act says that you can't deploy the U.S. military against civilians. Would you override that?

Trump: Well, these aren’t civilians. These are people that aren't legally in our country. This is an invasion of our country. An invasion like probably no country has ever seen before. They're coming in by the millions. I believe we have 15 million now. And I think you'll have 20 million by the time this ends. And that's bigger than almost every state.

...

Let’s shift to the economy, sir. You have floated a 10% tariff on all imports, and a more than 60% tariff on Chinese imports. Can I just ask you now: Is that your plan?

Trump: It may be more than that. It may be a derivative of that. A derivative of that. But it will be somebody—look when they come in and they steal our jobs, and they steal our wealth, they steal our country.

When you say more than that, though: You mean maybe more than 10% on all imports?

Trump: More than 10%, yeah. I call it a ring around the country. We have a ring around the country.

...

Mr. President, in our last conversation you said you weren't worried about political violence in connection with the November election. You said, “I think we're going to win and there won't be violence.” What if you don't win, sir?

Trump: Well, I do think we're gonna win. We're way ahead. I don't think they'll be able to do the things that they did the last time, which were horrible. Absolutely horrible. So many, so many different things they did, which were in total violation of what was supposed to be happening. And you know that and everybody knows that. We can recite them, go down a list that would be an arm’s long. But I don't think we're going to have that. I think we're going to win. And if we don't win, you know, it depends. It always depends on the fairness of an election. I don't believe they'll be able to do the things that they did the last time. I don't think they'll be able to get away with it. And if that's the case, we're gonna win in record-setting fashion.

Trump claims that when he was president, he told the leader of a NATO ally that he wouldn't defend them from Russia unless they "paid up." In other words, he encouraged Russian aggression. pic.twitter.com/wgDFQoPxgq

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 1, 2024

Roots of Rural Resentment

In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020.  

Democrats have paid a steep price for their withdrawal from rural America.

Lloyd Green at The Guardian:

The fact is, residents of Republican-run states are more than 20% more likely to join the military and after Iraq and the great recession, the disconnect between white rural America and coastal and cognitive elites swiftly became a chasm.

In 2016, parts of the US that felt the effects of the 9/11 wars more as reality than abstract moved to the Republican column. According to Douglas Kriner of Boston University and Francis Shen of the University of Minnesota, “Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan could very well have been winners for [Hillary] Clinton if their war casualties were lower.”

Wisconsin is the 20th-most rural state. A quarter of Michigan is rural. Pennsylvania has been characterized as Philadelphia in the east, Pittsburgh in the west and Alabama in the middle. As Trump prepares for his rematch with Joe Biden, all three states are toss-ups.

Schaller and Waldman also downplay the impact in rural areas of Democratic messaging on hot-button issues such as crime. It’s no longer just “the economy, stupid”. Culture wars pack an outsized punch. Outside New England, white rural Democrats are a relative rarity.

Inexplicably, Schaller and Waldman do not examine the case of Jon Tester, the three-term Democratic senator from deep-red, highly rural Montana who faces a stern fight to keep his seat this year. In 2020, in the aftermath of widespread protests for racial justice after the murder of George Floyd, a Black man, by a white Minneapolis officer, but also rioting and looting, Tester criticized his party.

See state data on the cost of post-9/11 wars. 

From CDC:

Drug overdoses are the leading cause of injury death in the United States, resulting in approximately 52,000 deaths in 2015. Rates of drug overdose deaths are rising in rural areas, surpassing rates in urban areas. Although the percentage of people reporting illicit drug use is lower in rural areas, the effects of use appear to be higher. The percentage of people with drug use disorders among those reporting past-year illicit drug use in rural areas was similar to that in urban areas.

Most overdose deaths occurred in homes, where rescue efforts may fall to relatives who have limited knowledge of or access to naloxone and overdose follow-up care. Understanding differences in illicit drug use, illicit drug use disorders, and drug overdose deaths in urban and rural areas can help public health professionals to identify, monitor, and prioritize responses

Christians, Troops, GOP

In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020.  

"I can tell you I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump – I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad." -- Donald J. Trump, March 13, 2019

Ruth Graham at NYT:

As a core faction in the Republican coalition, conservative evangelicals have long influenced the party’s policy priorities, including opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage. And the influence extended to conservative culture, where evangelical norms against vulgarity were rarely challenged in public.

In some ways, they remain intact. Most pastors don’t cuss from the pulpit, or at all. Mainstream conservative churches still teach their young people to save sex for marriage and avoid pornography.

Yet a raunchy, outsider, boobs-and-booze ethos has elbowed its way into the conservative power class, accelerated by the rise of Donald J. Trump, the declining influence of traditional religious institutions and a shifting media landscape increasingly dominated by the looser standards of online culture.

...

Others see the cause as partly technological. Evangelicalism is a decentralized movement, and has always embraced new technology as a way to reach more people. But the old institutions and personalities that defined the culture are fading: Church attendance has declined at the same time that several lions of the movement have died, retired or been felled by scandal. Influencers and outsiders have filled the vacuum.

Risa Brooks at Foreign Affairs:

Perhaps the most sobering example of the effort to inject partisan politics into military appointments is the right’s treatment of Charles Q. Brown, Jr., an air force general who now serves as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Prior to becoming chairman, Brown was confirmed as air force chief of staff in 2020 in a Senate vote of 98-0. Then, last July, leaders of 30 political groups on the right signed an open letter opposing Brown’s appointment as chairman. Despite his accomplished career as fighter pilot, 11 Republican senators voted against him when he was confirmed as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff last year. The number of “no” votes for the chairmanship was unprecedented, as were the stated reasons for them. Tuberville attributed his “no” vote to the general’s support for “equal opportunity” in the military. Senator Mike Braun, an Indiana Republican, asserted that the general, who is Black, had favored “woke policy initiatives” over effectiveness in the air force.

...

 If elected, Trump may seek to appoint a pliable general to replace Brown as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. It is customary for secretaries of defense to compile a list of potential candidates from which a president chooses a chairman. A healthy rapport between the president and a candidate for chairman is usually an important criterion for selection. The candidate’s party affiliation is not. That norm might be one of the first to go.

Haley Goes After Trump

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun. The nomination phase has effectively ended, but Trump is still raging. Last weekend, he invited Putin to attack NATO and insulted Nikki Haley's deployed husband.

One week ago, Donald Trump encouraged Putin to invade NATO countries. Now, it’s been more than 24 hours since we learned of the death of Alexei Navalny, and Trump has yet to say his name. We cannot have a president who sides with murderous thugs who want to destroy America. pic.twitter.com/t2s4fXev1X

— Nikki Haley (@NikkiHaley) February 17, 2024

FLASHBACK: Trump has praised and defended Putin for years. pic.twitter.com/nHQ1gwoLK0

— Nikki Haley (@NikkiHaley) February 18, 2024

Trump reiterates the blacklisting threat:

 

Haley Sharpens Attack on Trump

 Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun. The nomination phase has effectively ended, but Trump is still raging. Over the weekend, he invited Putin to attack NATO and insulted Nikki Haley's deployed husband.

Nikki Haley on Trump's invitation to Putin to attack NATO countries:

"It made me sick to my stomach...He just put every military member at risk and every one of our allies at risk just by saying something at a rally." pic.twitter.com/x6rmDiQr3S

— Republican Accountability (@AccountableGOP) February 12, 2024

Nikki Haley: “Every bit of it is disgusting. To sit there and mock my husband for not being with me on the presidential trail because he is deployed and serving our country...The reality is, the closest [Trump] has come to harm’s way is a golf ball hitting him on a golf cart.” pic.twitter.com/Goca3yBJvB

— Republican Accountability (@AccountableGOP) February 12, 2024