These models are all over the map, forecasting everything from a nearly certain Obama victory to the substantial likelihood of his defeat. But more of them have Mr. Obama as the favorite. If you simply average their win probability estimates together, you get about a 61 percent likelihood of his winning the election.
This blog continues the discussion that we began with Epic Journey: The 2008 Elections and American Politics (Rowman and Littlefield, 2009).The latest book in this series is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Previous posts have mentioned forecasting models for presidential elections. Nate Silver offers a useful table:
Posted by Pitney at 8:08 AM
Labels: economic policy, government, Obama, political science, Politics, Romney