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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Models

Previous posts have mentioned forecasting models for presidential electionsNate Silver offers a useful table:
These models are all over the map, forecasting everything from a nearly certain Obama victory to the substantial likelihood of his defeat. But more of them have Mr. Obama as the favorite. If you simply average their win probability estimates together, you get about a 61 percent likelihood of his winning the election.