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Saturday, August 18, 2012

Ryan and Medicare

Ryan's position on Medicare might not be quite as toxic as Democrats hope.

From National Journal:

Adding credence to the GOP's case: Polls conducted in 28 battleground districts for the National Republican Congressional Committee, obtained by National Journal, which suggest Republicans aren't as vulnerable on the Medicare debate as the conventional wisdom suggests. Their pollsters tested both the Republican message on Ryan's plan (Ryan's plan doesn't touch anyone over 55, preserves Medicare for future generations, invokes ObamaCare), and the Democratic message against it (end Medicare as we know it through voucher system, seniors pay more out of pocket, rates will go up). When the results of all 28 polls were aggregated together, the GOP argument prevailed 46 to 36 percent.
Another counterintuitive finding from the polls showed that there was little correlation between the most senior-heavy districts and their response to the Medicare arguments
Also from National Journal:
Even Democratic polling, which ostensibly shows the vulnerability of the Ryan budget to Congressional Republicans, isn’t as clear-cut as advertised. Greenberg’s Democracy Corps survey showed that the Republican argument for the Ryan budget actually wins widespread support in (largely) Democratic-leaning battleground districts.
According to their survey, 52 percent of voters in those swing districts support the budget, with just 37 percent opposing it. But when hearing the various critiques of the plan, support falls to 46 percent, with 47 percent opposing it. For a proposal that’s considered such a lightning rod, an even split hardly suggests it’s toxic
And from the Palm Beach Post:
But two Florida polls conducted since Ryan’s selection suggest that voters who are 65 and older support Ryan and his budget plan more than younger voters do. A third Florida poll released this week doesn’t include an age breakdown, but finds the state’s voters agreeing more with Ryan’s description of his budget and Medicare plan than with Democratic criticisms that it would “end Medicare as we know it.”
A poll by bipartisan Purple Strategies this week found likely Florida voters split nearly evenly on which ticket would do a better job of protecting Medicare. In a poll with a 3.1 percent margin of error, 45 percent said Obama and Joe Biden were more likely to protect Medicare and 44 percent chose Romney and Ryan.
The poll found 46 percent of Florida voters agreeing with the Republican description of the Romney-Ryan budget plan as one that protects Medicare for the long term, while 41 percent agreed with the Democratic criticism that the plan “ends Medicare as we know it by replacing guaranteed coverage with vouchers.”