Search This Blog

Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Friday, October 14, 2016

The GOP's California Problem

The GOP is winning fewer and fewer House seats in California:

1994...48%
2004...38%
2014...26%

It is not just the district lines.  Look at the GOP share of the state's two-party presidential vote:

1988...51.8%
1992...41.4%
1996...42.8%
2000...43.8%
2004...45.0%
2008...37.7%
2012...38.1%

Also consider party registration;

GOP % of registration
60-day report

1992...39.6%
1996...36.8%
2000...35.0%
2004...35.0%
2008...32.3%
2012...30.1%
2016...26.8%

What underlies the GOP's problem.  Perhaps the most important reason is demographic.

Percent of Californians Identifying as Non-Hispanic "White Alone"                  

1980...66.6%
1990...57.2%
2000...46.7%
2010...40.1%
2015...38.0%

The GOP is holding its own among white voters.  Other groups, not so much.  PPIC looks at the party registration of likely voters in 2016.  Here are GOP shares:

White...39%
Asian...24%
Latino...17%
AfrAm..06%

The Democratic coalition is younger

............18-34.....35-54...55+
Dem.....21..........32........47
Rep.......09.........36.........55

To survive, the California GOP has to do a lot better among Asian Americans, Hispanic Americans, African Americans, and young people.

Donald Trump is not helping.