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Divided We Stand

Divided We Stand
New book about the 2020 election.

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Fearless Forecast

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Popular vote:Clinton 49 Trump 44 Johnson 4 Stein 2 Other 1

House: net GOP loss of 19 seats, including 4 in California (Issa, Denham, Valadao, Knight) 

Senate: Dems win North Carolina, Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, for a 51-49 majority.

My D numbers are a bit higher than consensus, for two reasons.

1.  Demographics.  I think the likely-voter screens are missing some Latino low-propensity voters who will  turn out for Clinton.  RCP average has Trump ahead in Nevada, even though Clinton has already locked up the state thanks to Hispanic early voters.  I suspect that the same dynamic will tip Florida.  In North Carolina, black early vote was down, in part because there weren't enough early-voting sites.  Dems will make up some of that deficit today.  Also, the D advantage among college-educated whites will make a difference in NC, too.

2.  Mobilization.  Democrats have an even greater advantage in GOTV than they did 4 years ago, which is saying a lot.

The story of key Senate races is a revolt against insiders. That's why Blunt and Burr are in trouble, and why Bayh will probably fail.

Note Alaska.  My Hail Mary longshot prediction is that Clinton wins. Not as crazy as it sounds:  she has actually led some polls there.  Reason:  Trump's issues do not resonate with Alaska whites, but they have alienated Native Alaskans.