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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Wednesday, October 3, 2018

California: Advantage D

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race

Reid Wilson reports on CA at The Hill:
All told, Democratic candidates and their supportive outside groups will have spent $35 million on television advertising between August and the November elections.
That’s a $7 million advantage over the amount Republican candidates and their supporters have dedicated to television time in the same period.
In Southern California, polls conducted by Siena College for The New York Times show Democrats leading in races for seats held by [Mimi] Walters, who is seeking another term, and Darrell Issa (R), who is retiring.
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) is tied with his Democratic rival, while Rep. Steve Knight (R) holds just a 2-point lead over his challenger.
A Monmouth University poll shows former Assemblywoman Young Kim (R) leading philanthropist Gil Cisneros (D), 49 percent to 43 percent, in another Los Angeles-area district.
No reliable public surveys have been taken in districts held by Reps. Jeff Denham (R) and David Valadao (R), both in the Central Valley.
Democratic candidates have reserved more television time than their Republican rivals in all seven races, leaving Republican outside groups to pick up the slack.
John Wildermuth at SF Chronicle:
Public Policy Institute of California survey released last week found that 66 percent of the state’s adults disapprove of the job Trump is doing. Even in the GOP bastions of Orange and San Diego counties, his approval rating is underwater, with 34 percent pleased with the president’s efforts and 55 percent unhappy.
Democrats across the state will try to make their congressional races a referendum on Trump, telling voters that a vote against “fill-in-the-Republican” is a chance to vote against the president.

An internal poll taken in mid-September for Porter by the Global Strategy Group found her leading Walters, the GOP incumbent, 46 percent to 43 percent. A memo from the pollster said Trump is very unpopular in the Republican-leaning district, with an approval rating of just 39 percent.
“Perhaps even more important,” the memo continued, “Democrats are much more excited to vote, as 79 percent of registered Democrats are either very or somewhat excited, compared to just 57 percent of Republicans.”