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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Monday, October 1, 2018

Triage, 2010 and 2018

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race

Cameron Joseph at TPM:
The National Republican Congressional Committee has canceled its TV reservations for Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-KS), making him the sixth House incumbent that either the group or its closely aligned super-PAC are leaving for dead heading into the campaign’s final month.
The NRCC canceled the ads in recent days, GOP sources confirm, walking away from Yoder in a suburban Kansas City district that President Trump lost by 1 point in 2016. Yoder is facing attorney and former mixed martial arts fighter Sharice Davids in the seat. If she wins, which now looks likely, she’ll become the first Native American woman and only the second openly gay woman ever to be elected to Congress.
He joins Reps. Mike Coffman (R-CO), Mike Bishop (R-MI), Barbara Comstock (R-VA), Rod Blum (R-IA) and Keith Rothfus (R-PA) as incumbents that either the NRCC or the Congressional Leadership Fund, the GOP’s main super-PAC, have been forced to give up on to save their money for more winnable districts.
Eight years ago, the parties' positions were reversed, with Democrats in triage mode.   On September 4, 2010, Jeff Zeleny and Carl Hulse reported at NYT:
As Democrats brace for a November wave that threatens their control of the House, party leaders are preparing a brutal triage of their own members in hopes of saving enough seats to keep a slim grip on the majority.

In the next two weeks, Democratic leaders will review new polls and other data that show whether vulnerable incumbents have a path to victory. If not, the party is poised to redirect money to concentrate on trying to protect up to two dozen lawmakers who appear to be in the strongest position to fend off their challengers.

“We are going to have to win these races one by one,” said Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, conceding that the party would ultimately cut loose members who had not gained ground.

With the midterm campaign entering its final two months, Democrats acknowledged that several races could quickly move out of their reach, including re-election bids by Representatives Betsy Markey of Colorado, Tom Perriello of Virginia, Mary Jo Kilroy of Ohio and Frank Kratovil Jr. of Maryland, whose districts were among the 55 Democrats won from Republicans in the last two election cycles.

Representatives John M. Spratt Jr. of South Carolina, chairman of the Budget Committee, and Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota, who is seeking a 10th term, are among the senior Democrats who have appeared to gain little ground in the summer months in the toxic political environment. A sputtering economy and discontent with Washington have created a high sense of voter unease that has also put control