Half Past Trump: The 2018 Midterm Elections
Athenaeum, October 25, 2018
The O. Henry Ad:
The Funny Ad:
The Inspiring Ad:
Midterm Losses: the president's party usually loses seats in the House, often in the Senate as well.
Approval: the losses are more severe when the president is unpopular. And despite a recent uptick, Trump remains unpopular.
SCENARIO ONE -- WITH THE ODDS: DEMS PICK UP 25-35 HOUSE SEATS, NO NET CHANGE IN SENATE
SCENARIO TWO -- GOOD REPUBLICAN NIGHT: DEMS PICK UP 15-20 HOUSE SEATS, GOP GAINS 2-3 SENATE SEATS
SCENARIO THREE -- GREAT DEMOCRATIC NIGHT: DEMS PICK UP 40+ HOUSE SEATS, NET 3+ SENATE SEATS.