Recall Then and Now

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state elections.

Mark Baldassare at PPIC:

The successful recall of the governor in 2003 occurred in a very different political context. Governor Gray Davis had been reelected by a 5-point margin in November 2002 (47% to 42%). Newsom was elected by a 24-point margin in November 2018 (62% to 38%). Democrats had a 9-point edge over Republicans in voter registration (44% to 35%) in 2003; today, they have a 22-point edge (46% to 24%). Moreover, seven in ten California likely voters disapproved of Gray Davis during the year of the recall (72% February 2003; 75% June 2003; 72% July 2003; 72% August 2003; 71% September 2003). And leading up to the recall election, at least half of California likely voters said they would vote to remove Davis as governor (51% June 2003, 50% July 2003; 58% August 2003, 53% September 2003). Ultimately, 55% voted to remove him in October 2003. By contrast, fewer than half have said they disapprove of Newsom in the 13 surveys we have conducted since he took office, and today four in ten want to remove him.

The political wildcard in the 2021 governor’s recall is the replacement candidates. In 2003, 135 candidates ran to replace Davis and four of them received at least 1% of the vote. But it was the surprise entry of action movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger that changed the election’s dynamics. Currently, a few candidates have indicated their desire to run in 2021 but none have the qualities of Arnold Schwarzenegger or the statewide electoral track record of Gavin Newsom. Will a charismatic leader appear who has the name recognition and sufficient resources to mount a successful statewide campaign?

Arnold Goes There

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign, where Trump suggested that he would not acknowledge defeat.  His legal challenges to the election of Joseph Biden have toggled between appalling and farcical.    But his base continues to believe the bogus narrative.

This past week, his dishonesty and demagoguery ended in violence and death.

In a video, Schwarzenegger says:

I grew up in Austria. I'm very aware of Kristallnacht, or the Night of Broken Glass. It was a night of rampage against the Jews, carried out in 1938 by the Nazi equivalent of the Proud Boys.

Wednesday was the day of Broken Glass right here in the US. The Broken Glass was in the windows of the US Capitol. But the mob did not just shatter the windows of the Capitol, they shattered the ideas we took for granted.

Un-American Racist Tweets

In Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's character.  The update  -- recently published --includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. On Sunday, he told several Democratic congresswomen to "go back" to their countries.

Yesterday, on a near-party line vote (with 4 Republicans and Amash voting aye), the House passed 
H. RES. 489

Condemning President Trump’s racist comments directed at Members of Congress.

IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
July 15, 2019
Mr. Malinowski (for himself, Ms. Jayapal, Mr. Ted Lieu of California, Mr. García of Illinois, Mr. Carbajal, Ms. Omar, Mr. Krishnamoorthi, Ms. Mucarsel-Powell, Mrs. Torres of California, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, Ms. Tlaib, Ms. Pressley, Mr. Raskin, Ms. Jackson Lee, and Mr. Espaillat) submitted the following resolution; which was referred to the Committee on the Judiciary

RESOLUTION
Condemning President Trump’s racist comments directed at Members of Congress.

Whereas the Founders conceived America as a haven of refuge for people fleeing from religious and political persecution, and Thomas Jefferson, Alexander Hamilton, and James Madison all emphasized that the Nation gained as it attracted new people in search of freedom and livelihood for their families;

Whereas the Declaration of Independence defined America as a covenant based on equality, the unalienable Rights of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, and government by the consent of the people;

Whereas Benjamin Franklin said at the Constitutional convention, “When foreigners after looking about for some other Country in which they can obtain more happiness, give a preference to ours, it is a proof of attachment which ought to excite our confidence and affection”;

Whereas President Franklin D. Roosevelt said, “Remember, remember always, that all of us, and you and I especially, are descended from immigrants and revolutionists”;

Whereas immigration of people from all over the Earth has defined every stage of American history and propelled our social, economic, political, scientific, cultural, artistic, and technological progress as a people, and all Americans, except for the descendants of Native people and enslaved African Americans, are immigrants or descendants of immigrants;

Whereas the commitment to immigration and asylum has been not a partisan cause but a powerful national value that has infused the work of many Presidents;

Whereas American patriotism is defined not by race or ethnicity but by devotion to the Constitutional ideals of equality, liberty, inclusion, and democracy and by service to our communities and struggle for the common good;

Whereas President John F. Kennedy, whose family came to the United States from Ireland, stated in his 1958 book “A Nation of Immigrants” that “The contribution of immigrants can be seen in every aspect of our national life. We see it in religion, in politics, in business, in the arts, in education, even in athletics and entertainment. There is no part of our nation that has not been touched by our immigrant background. Everywhere immigrants have enriched and strengthened the fabric of American life.”;

Whereas President Ronald Reagan in his last speech as President conveyed “An observation about a country which I love”;

Whereas as President Reagan observed, the torch of Lady Liberty symbolizes our freedom and represents our heritage, the compact with our parents, our grandparents, and our ancestors, and it is the Statue of Liberty and its values that give us our great and special place in the world;

Whereas other countries may seek to compete with us, but in one vital area, as “a beacon of freedom and opportunity that draws the people of the world, no country on Earth comes close”;

Whereas it is the great life force of “each generation of new Americans that guarantees that America's triumph shall continue unsurpassed” through the 21st century and beyond and is part of the “magical, intoxicating power of America”;

Whereas this is “one of the most important sources of America's greatness: we lead the world because, unique among nations, we draw our people -- our strength -- from every country and every corner of the world, and by doing so we continuously renew and enrich our nation”;

Whereas “thanks to each wave of new arrivals to this land of opportunity, we're a nation forever young, forever bursting with energy and new ideas, and always on the cutting edge”, always leading the world to the next frontier;

Whereas this openness is vital to our future as a Nation, and “if we ever closed the door to new Americans, our leadership in the world would soon be lost”; and

Whereas President Donald Trump’s racist comments have legitimized fear and hatred of new Americans and people of color: Now, therefore, be it


Resolved, That the House of Representatives—

(1) believes that immigrants and their descendants have made America stronger, and that those who take the oath of citizenship are every bit as American as those whose families have lived in the United States for many generations;

(2) is committed to keeping America open to those lawfully seeking refuge and asylum from violence and oppression, and those who are willing to work hard to live the American Dream, no matter their race, ethnicity, faith, or country of origin; and

(3) strongly condemns President Donald Trump’s racist comments that have legitimized and increased fear and hatred of new Americans and people of color by saying that our fellow Americans who are immigrants, and those who may look to the President like immigrants, should “go back” to other countries, by referring to immigrants and asylum seekers as “invaders,” and by saying that Members of Congress who are immigrants (or those of our colleagues who are wrongly assumed to be immigrants) do not belong in Congress or in the United States of America.

Jessica Campisi at The Hill:

Arnold Schwarzenegger is calling out President Trump for his tweets attacking minority Democratic congresswomen and telling them to “go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came.”

“I’m disappointed in this weekend’s untrue, unfair, and un-American attack,’’ the former Republican governor from California told Politico in an email. “It is hateful, it is crude, and it is divisive.”

Susan Page at USAT:

A clear majority of Americans say President Trump's tweets targeting four minority congresswomen were "un-American," according to a new USA TODAY/Ipsos Poll. But most Republicans say they agreed with his comments, an illustration of the nation's sharp partisan divide on issues of patriotism and race.

More than two-thirds of those aware of the controversy, 68%, called Trump's tweets offensive. Among Republicans alone, however, 57% said they agreed with tweets that told the congresswomen to go back to their "original" countries, and a third "strongly" agreed with them. All four lawmakers are American citizens; three were born in the United States.

That finding may help explain the reluctance of GOP leaders and most GOP members of Congress to castigate the president for tweets and comments in recent days targeting the congresswomen, outspoken progressives who are among his sharpest critics on Capitol Hill. Only four Republicans joined House Democrats Tuesday in passing a resolution condemning Trump's comments as "racist."

New Way California

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional races as well as the presidential election.

Alexei Koseff at The Sacramento Bee:

Pushed out by party activists last summer for negotiating with Democrats on a climate change program, former Assembly Republican Leader Chad Mayes is doubling down on his fight to reshape the California GOP – with a key assist from former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Mayes announced Tuesday the formation of New Way California, an initiative that aims to expand the appeal of Republican policies and reverse the party’s declining prospects in the state. Republicans, who now make up just a quarter of registered voters in California, have not won a statewide election in more than a decade and hold fewer than one-third of the seats in both houses of the Legislature.

“There really is one-party rule here in California,” Mayes said at a press conference. “Republicans have failed to be able to reach out to average folks in California. They don’t think that we care about them, they don’t think that we are working for their benefit.”

Resolving a Question About Fred Trump

Trump is offending African American voters with his bleak portrayal of their living conditions.

Trump is also offending Catholics.  Raphael Bernal reports at The Hill:

Steve Bannon, Donald Trump's new campaign CEO, previously accused Catholics of supporting Hispanic immigration to prop up the church's numbers on his radio program in the spring.

"I understand why Catholics want as many Hispanics in this country as possible, because the church is dying in this country, right? If it was not for the Hispanics," Bannon told Robert P. George, a Princeton law professor who, along with dozens of other leaders, wrote an open letter to fellow Catholics denouncing Trump.

"I get that, right? But I think that is the subtext of part of the letter, and I think that is the subtext of a lot of the political direction of this."

The Hill first reported on Bannon's March 8 comments Monday. Bannon railed against House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and said he was "rubbing his social-justice Catholicism in my nose every second."

Trump also employs an openly anti-Catholic spokesperson and has directly attacked Pope Francis. 

If he is serious about "pivoting," he should follow the example of Arnold Schwarzenegger.

In 1990, responding to reports that his father had been a Nazi, he asked the Simon Wiesenthal Center to investigate.  The Center found that the reports were true.  By being open and proactive, Schwarzenegger inoculated himself against his father's taint.  In 2003, his gubernatorial campaign suffered no damage when additional details surfaced about Gustav Schwarzenegger's Nazi activities.

Trump could make a gesture of goodwill by dealing with his own father's past.  Earlier this year, news accounts provided documentation that New York City police arrested Fred Trump in the wake of a 1927 anti-Catholic Ku Klux Klan rally in Queens.  Donald Trump flatly denied the story, even though three separate contemporaneous news accounts noted Fred Trump's arrest.

These stories do not prove that Fred Trump was a Klan member, but they surely raise questions.  With his vast wealth, Trump might be able to settle these questions by sponsoring a full investigation of his father.  If the investigation finds that his father was not a Klan member, he can claim vindication. If it does, he can get credit for honesty and candor.

Mr. Trump, as you keep rhetorically asking African Americans, what do you have to lose?

GOP in CA

At The Orange County Register, Matthew Fleming reports that California GOP chair Jim Brulte is addressing the party's problems.

Republicans regularly held the governor’s mansion for years, said Brulte, and they enjoyed the big checks from donors, who often contribute to the party in power. As a result, Republicans “lost the mechanics,” he said.

“The California Republican party didn’t even have an online voter registration program in 2012,” said Brulte, who pointed to Democrat Steve Fox getting elected to the Assembly by 145 votes in 2012 in a district that includes parts of San Bernardino, Kern and Los Angeles counties, as an opportunity squandered by neglected mechanics. “That’s one Assembly seat that was lost simply because of that failure.”

Another factor could be a failure to recognize changes in demographics, most notably the rising Latino population. Republican efforts to tap into this growing electorate have been trivial at best. At worst, Republicans’ inability to coalesce around an immigration strategy may be pushing Latinos away.

Loss of hope and leadership could be another factor, according to longtime Republican operative Jonathan Wilcox. The last Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, along with the last Republican gubernatorial candidate, Meg Whitman, have both been conspicuously absent, leaving an enthusiasm void.

“There’s not success without belief,” Wilcox said. “I think some Republicans have suffered from a lack of belief and they’ve gone through some tough times. ... Our standard bearers have removed themselves from the partisan or political process – that’s very unique in our politics. … I’m not trashing them, but if they were still involved, it would truly benefit the Republican Party.”

The article also notes some modest recent successes that reflect Brulte's emphasis on nuts and bolts.

Clooney for Governor?

In the UK, The Mirror offers a ... speculative report:

Hollywood heartthrob George Clooney is set to follow in the footsteps of fellow actor Arnold Schwarzenegger by running for Governor of California.

Friends of the Gravity star say the 53-year-old is being courted by Barack Obama’s Democrat party who want him to run for office in the 2018 race.

As the Mirror exclusively revealed last month George is planning to launch his new career after he ties the knot with British lawyer Amal Alamuddin, 36, in September, following an eight-month romance.

...

Previously George has been a huge supporter of campaigns by the Democratic Party and rallied for Obama at the 2012 election to ensure the President was successful in securing a second term in office.

He is an ardent campaigner for human rights and has personally funded his own drone spying missions to report war atrocities and human rights violations in Syria to the US government.

He was once arrested outside the Sudanese Embassy after a planned protest over Darfur.
That year George ruled out running for president and said: "There's a guy in office who is smarter than anybody. I have no interest."

His spokesperson has refused to comment on his ambitions to enter politics however friends close to the star say he has turned down several long-term projects in Hollywood to ensure he remains free to pursue his goal.

CA: The Politics of Endorsements

Much of Silicon Valley seems to be supporting Boxer over local candidate Carly Fiorina. Bloomberg reports:

Boxer’s popularity in Silicon Valley is due in part to her role as chairwoman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, where she has focused on creating clean-energy jobs and reducing carbon emissions. She’s also backed policy for the granting of more H-1B visas, which bring technology engineers to the U.S. from overseas. And in 2004 she opposed rules that forced companies to expense stock options for employees, saying it would eliminate an incentive for attracting top talent.

“Barbara has worked with our industry on critical issues impacting Silicon Valley, including education, promoting innovation, stock options and tax policies,” Chambers, Cisco’s chief executive officer and a founding member of Technology Leaders for Boxer, said in an e-mail.

As for Fiorina

“There’s a lot of animus about her business decisions at HP,” said Barbara O’Connor, director of the Institute for the Study of Politics and Media at California State University, Sacramento. “It’s mostly the Compaq decision and how she handled it.”

David Siders of the Sacramento Bee reports of the governor:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger says he is not sure he will endorse either candidate bidding to succeed him. If he does, he said after last week's primary elections, it will not necessarily be Republican Meg Whitman, his party's nominee. Not that she has asked. Or that the governor's endorsement would be helpful, anyway.

Read more: http://www.sacbee.com/2010/06/18/2831634/will-schwarzenegger-endorse-whitman.html#ixzz0rE5MArxh

CA: Running Against Schwarzenegger

Stu Woo of the Wall Street Journal reports:

Mr. Poizner has run three television ads comparing Ms. Whitman with Mr. Schwarzenegger, who is subject to term limits.

One particularly memorable ad shows Mr. Schwarzenegger's face morphing into Ms. Whitman's face. After the transformation, U.S. Rep. Tom McClintock, a Poizner endorser, appears onscreen with this message: "California can't afford Arnold Schwarzenegger's third term, and that's Meg Whitman."

The Whitman campaign has responded to the attacks with its own name-dropping charges.

"There's only one candidate in the race who has spent $20 million [in previous campaigns] trying to convince voters that he's the Schwarzenegger politician, and that's Steve Poizner," Mike Murphy, a Whitman strategist, said Tuesday. He added that the commercials have been "entertaining, but it's an ineffective thing for the Poizner campaign, so I hope they keep on doing it."

CA: Poizner, Whitman, and Schwarzenegger

In a Steve Poizner ad, Rep. Tom McClintock attacks Meg Whitman as Arnold Schwarzenegger's third term:

What is remarkable is that McClintock was Schwarzenegger's running mate in 2006. Though they ran on separate ballot lines, they endorsed each other. McClintock noted his fiscal differences with Schwarzenegger but still pleaded for party unity.