CA: Same-Sex Marriage Stand Hurt Campbell

Capitol Weekly reports:

Tom Campbell still would have lost his Republican primary for U.S. Senate even if he didn't support gay marriage, according to a survey of GOP voters. But he probably wouldn’t have been trounced as badly as he was.

That’s the conclusion of a poll commissioned by the National Organization for Marriage, a group opposing same-sex marriage that ran an ad campaign targeting Campbell on the issue.

Even though most voters didn’t know Campbell’s position, there was a significant minority who did. The poll showed that the latter turned against Campbell in large numbers.

The post-election poll of 300 GOP primary voters found that those who voted for Campbell’s opponents were more aware of his gay-marriage stand. Of the voters who supported Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, R-Irvine, or former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, three in 10 said Campbell’s opposition to Proposition 8 was a factor in their decision.

NOM's release on the poll is here.

CA: Campbell's Last-Ditch Web Ad

In California, Tom Campbell uses a web ad to press the argument that he can beat Boxer.

As of early evening on June 2, however, the YouTube video had only 1,266 views.

CA: Gains for Whitman and Fiorina?

California Watch reports on swinging polls:

Two weeks before the primary, the Republican contest for governor is a blowout again, with former eBay CEO Meg Whitman surging to a 27-point lead, 54-27, over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner.

That’s according to SurveyUSA, the same pollster that, two weeks ago, reported that the GOP race was a dead heat, with Poizner trailing by two points and Whitman seemingly on her way to squandering what had once been a 50-point lead.

So SurveyUSA, which did the polling for four California television stations, has the contest swinging wildly toward Poizner, and then wildly back toward Whitman, all in less than a month.

“It’s obviously a volatile race,” SurveyUSA CEO Jay Leve said in a phone interview last night. “I was as surprised as you are.”

But he said it’s interesting to note that the poll showed that Whitman isn’t the only female candidate coming on strong in the final days of the GOP primary.

Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who in other polls was neck and neck with former Rep. Tom Campbell, has opened up a 23-point lead, 46 to 23, in this one.

And the San Jose Mercury News reports on endorsements that may help in the primary, but not the general:

When Carly Fiorina launched her campaign for U.S. Senate late last year, she wanted little to do with Sarah Palin. "I've never met her," Fiorina replied when asked about the former Alaska governor's leadership skills. "Next question."

And Meg Whitman, the front-running GOP candidate for California governor, probably wasn't planning to ask Dick Cheney or Newt Gingrich to endorse her when she launched her ubiquitous ad campaign last fall.

But as the races for governor and senator go down to the wire before the June 8 primary, big name Republicans are jumping into the fray with endorsements — 11th-hour nods that may offer big boosts now but carry serious risks in the fall, when the primary winners face the general electorate in a solidly blue state.

Palin endorsed Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO, on May 6. Former Vice President Cheney endorsed Whitman 10 days later. And former House Speaker Gingrich endorses the eBay billionaire in an op-ed piece in the Mercury News today, calling her "a transformational leader for California."

Not surprisingly, Tom Campbell's views on social policy are drawing fire. The LA Times reports:

The National Organization for Marriage, which already spent $300,000 this spring on anti-Campbell television ads, has begun making automated calls to more than 600,000 likely Republican voters, emphasizing Campbell's opposition to Proposition 8, the California ballot measure banning gay marriage.

Brown said the group's polling made clear that many Republican voters did not know Campbell's position on same-sex marriage. His group plans to spend at least $200,000 before the primary to make sure they do.

Beginning Monday, many of those same voters will be the target of at least three rounds of calls by the Susan B. Anthony List, which supports women candidates who oppose abortion. The group has endorsed Fiorina. Its president, Marjorie Dannenfelser, said Campbell's abortion views have been "a great mystery" to voters.

CA: PPIC Poll

The latest poll from the Public Policy Institute of California:

Support for Meg Whitman has plummeted 23 points since March, and she is now in a far closer race with Steve Poizner to become the Republican nominee for governor.... Less than a month before the June primary, Whitman leads Poizner 38 percent to 29 percent among Californians likely to vote in the Republican primary. A third of likely voters (31%) are undecided. In January, Whitman led Poizner by 30 points (41% Whitman, 11% Poizner, 44% undecided) and in March, by 50 points (61% Whitman, 11% Poizner, 25% undecided).

...

The Republican senate primary race is also close, with Carly Fiorina (25%) and Tom Campbell (23%) deadlocked, as they were in March (24% Fiorina, 23% Campbell), and support doubling for Chuck DeVore (16% today, 8% March) among GOP likely voters. Thirty-six percent are undecided. Fiorina and Campbell have similar levels of support among men (29% Fiorina, 25% Campbell, 17% Devore), with 29 percent undecided. Support for the two candidates is also similar among women (21% Fiorina, 20% Campbell, 14% DeVore), but 44 percent of women are still undecided.

The full report is here.

CA: Items on the Races

Tom Campbell is relying on targeted mailers instead of TV -- perhaps an appeal to mail voters. Meanwhile, the NRA is telling members to vote against him.

Fred Davis, Fiorina's media consultant, is doing quite well indeed.

In the gubernatorial race, Jerry Brown kicked off his campaign by calling the GOP candidates apostles of darkness and ignorance."

Poizner is attacking Whitman over eBay's adults-only section., asking: "Do Republicans want a governor who directly profited from selling pornography and sex paraphernalia?"

CA: Northern Exposure

Of California's six major candidates for governor and senator, five have their base in Northern California: Jerry Brown (former mayor of Oakland), Barbara Boxer (who owns a home in RanchoMirage but made her career in Marin County), Tom Campbell (former House member from the Silicon Valley), as well as high-tech businesspeople Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, and Steve Poizner. Only Chuck DeVore has firm roots in the Southland.

That situation is an anomaly, since Southern California has much more of the state's wealth and population. So what's happening? Mike Zapler of the San Jose Mercury News reports:

Experts in the state's political geography chalk up the slate of northern candidates this year to several factors: the engine of wealth that Silicon Valley has become, producing a rash of ambitious, well-heeled executives who can finance their own campaigns; the growing Democratic voter registration in the Los Angeles area, narrowing the terrain for Republicans to blossom into viable statewide candidates; and pure happenstance.

"With the exception of Schwarzenegger, who's anomalous in a lot of ways, there hasn't been a pool of Republicans from Southern California who are next in line to run statewide," said Ken Miller, a government professor at Claremont McKenna College. "Instead, their base has increasingly become the Inland Empire and Central Valley, but there's not a lot of (campaign) money in those areas. So you've got this weird situation where Republican candidates are coming from the Bay Area, and they're much more socially moderate than the median voter in a Republican primary."

CA: Prominent Blogger May Back Fiorina

CNN reports:

A prominent conservative is issuing an ultimatum, essentially telling the candidate he supports to do better in the polls – or lose his support.

Erick Erickson, editor-in-chief of RedState.com, backs Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in the California Republican senate primary. DeVore is locked in a battle with former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and former Rep. Tom Campbell for the right to face Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer in November.

Speaking Tuesday with CNN Chief National Correspondent John King, Erickson – a CNN contributor - said he won't support DeVore much longer if the candidate does not improve his political standing.

CA: Poll Has Good News for Campbell

A new Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research survey shows Whitman leading Poizner 47-19 percent. He has brought her below fifty percent, but she still leads by more than two to one. The Senate results are good news for Campbell, as Capitol Weekly reports:

In the Senate race, former Congressman Tom Campbell was favored by 31 percent of respondents. Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina was next with 17 percent, followed by Assemblyman Chuck DeVore at 14 percent. More than 37 percent of those surveyed said they were still undecided.

Unlike the governor’s race, the U.S. Senate race has not seen a barrage of paid media activity. Campbell’s strength in the poll is, in part, due to his strong ballot designation as “economist/business educator,” says Probolsky.

“It also shows the strength of the Campbell name,” he said. “These types of academic, serious ballot titles seem to carry real weight with Republican voters.” But, Probolsky added, that could all be overwhelmed in the final weeks of the campaign.

Voters will head to the polls in less than six weeks, but voting will begin much sooner. Absentee ballots will be mailed to voters in less than three weeks -- a dynamic that could be critical, said Tulchin.

“In a primary, there’s higher percentage of voters who vote by mail, and Republicans vote more by mail than Democrats,” said Tulchin. “Taking those two factors into account -- you’re talking about 70-plus percent of voters getting their ballots in the mail in less than three weeks.”

American Future Fund v. Campbell

The Iowa-based American Future Fund is running a mailer against Tom Campbell. The piece mentions a website called www.TomIStheTaxMan.com, which in turn features a brief clip from the Beatles song, "Tax Man." (No word on whether the group got a license to use this copyrighted material.) The American Future Fund is a 501(c)(4) and can avoid disclosing contributors.

CA Primary: Independents' Day?

In California, voters to decline to state a party preference may nevertheless vote in party primaries. Ken McLaughlin of the San Jose Mercury News reports on a possible impact on the GOP races for governor and senator:

Historically, California's independent voters don't swing primary elections. But with Boxer and Jerry Brown, the presumed Democratic candidate for governor, essentially running unopposed in the primary, Republican strategists are preparing for an influx of independent voters since the GOP primary is the only game in town for those who want their vote to make a difference in the top races in June.

The independents could be key in the U.S. Senate race in which Republicans Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell are running neck and neck in the polls. Additionally, Meg Whitman, the GOP front-runner in the gubernatorial primary, is expected to target independents now to try to lock up their votes through the fall through a direct mail campaign that encourages independents to request a Republican mail-in ballot or pick one up at the polls.

CA: Tents and Parties

After the 2008 campaign, some observers said that Republicans could not recover unless they reached beyond their conservative base. In California, the National Organization has weighed in with an ad against Republican senatorial candidate Tom Campbell, who supports gay marriage. Dan Morain writes in The Sacramento Bee:

In California, Campbell is locked in a tight race against Carly Fiorina, the former chief executive officer of Hewlett-Packard. Polls show both would be competitive against Boxer, particularly in a year when angry voters are in a mood to throw out incumbents.

A Field Poll earlier this month showed Campbell leading Fiorina by six points in the GOP primary. A poll by the Public Policy Institute of California showed Fiorina with a one-point lead. Fiorina and a third Republican candidate, Assemblyman Chuch DeVore, share opposition to gay marriage.

Will the National Organization for Marriage's involvement move the California electorate in the same way that it helped shape the New York congressional race? It remains to be seen. But Brown and Gallagher are willing to take credit for Fiorina's upward trend in the polls.

Gallagher, who is also an officer in the Virginia-based Institute for Marriage and Public Policy, cited that PPIC poll and proclaimed in a blog: "Bottom line: I think Tom Campbell is about to find out, as Dede Scozzafava did, that it is not a good idea to be for gay marriage if you are Republican."

CA: The GOP Primary Races

Debra Saunders has a smart analysis of the CA GOP primary races:

Politicos figure that Whitman was too smart to ever directly push Campbell out of the contest. But given that her political guru Mike Murphy sent that memo to Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner suggesting that Poizner instead run for Senate in 2012, it is evident that Whitman Inc. wanted to clear the field for governor. And Campbell had to be aware that the doors of GOP biggies supporting Whitman suddenly would swing open for him if he jumped to the Senate race. Whitman didn't need to push Campbell out. Her money did all the work.

So Campbell moved. And as fast as corn popping, former Secretary of State George Shultz became Camp Campbell's honorary chair, and Whitman fundraising dynamo Kristin Hueter added Campbell to her client list. (Said Hueter: "It's a lie if somebody says there was a deal cut for Tom to pull out of the race.")

Findings from the PPIC poll:

• Meg Whitman has bolstered her lead over Steve Poizner by 20 points since January among likely voters in the Republican primary. Today, 61 percent favor her, compared to 11 percent for Poizner, whose level of support is unchanged from January (Whitman 41%, Poizner 11%)
• Meg Whitman leads Jerry Brown 44% to 39% among likely voters in the race for governor and Brown is favored over Poizner, 46% to 31%.
• The Republican primary race for U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer’s seat has tightened since January, when Tom Campbell led both Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore among Republican likely voters (27% Campbell, 16% Fiorina, 8% DeVore). Today, Campbell and Fiorina are in a close race (24% Fiorina, 23% Campbell), and DeVore’s level of support is unchanged (8%). In this campaign—which has seen little advertising—the largest percentage of likely voters (44%) is undecided, similar to January (48%).
• Incumbent Barbara Boxer is in a close race with Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell for her senate seat.
• Approval for the state legislature’s job performance drops to 9%.

The GOP Civil War That Isn't

When the Republicans nominated John McCain over more conservative candidates, some pundits saw a mere fluke. The GOP, they opined, was destined for a civil war in which conservatives would wipe out moderates. But in The Politico, Jonathan Martin reports that these forecasts are proving wrong:

GOP leaders easily swatted down a proposed “purity test” for candidates at last week’s Republican National Committee meeting — an indication that party officials are no more willing to turn over the keys to right-wing activists now than they were during the Bush years.

In Illinois, Rep. Mark Kirk is hardly a conservative heartthrob — and some activists are openly contemptuous of what they perceive as his moderation — but he easily won the Republican Senate primary there Tuesday night, against a more conservative, underfunded opponent, in part because he is seen as having the best chance to capture President Barack Obama’s old Senate seat.

Recent elections also suggest a second trend: It may not be all that hard in a favorable political environment for skilled Republicans to bridge or blur the ideological divide between the conservative activists who dominate the party and the more moderate swing voters whom candidates need to win office.

Scott Brown has become the toast of Republicans nationally by winning Ted Kennedy’s old Senate seat in Massachusetts even though he supports abortion rights. Conversely, Republican Bob McDonnell defied predictions that he was too far to the right to attract moderate voters to win a landslide in the Virginia governor’s race.

And there is more. Here in California, the leading candidate for the GOP nomination for the Senate is Tom Campbell, who is pro-choice and pro-gay-marriage. Rival Carly Fiorina has tried to run to Campbell's right, but conservatives have reacted to her latest web ad with derisive laughter instead of support: