CA: Poll Has Good News for Campbell

A new Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research survey shows Whitman leading Poizner 47-19 percent. He has brought her below fifty percent, but she still leads by more than two to one. The Senate results are good news for Campbell, as Capitol Weekly reports:

In the Senate race, former Congressman Tom Campbell was favored by 31 percent of respondents. Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina was next with 17 percent, followed by Assemblyman Chuck DeVore at 14 percent. More than 37 percent of those surveyed said they were still undecided.

Unlike the governor’s race, the U.S. Senate race has not seen a barrage of paid media activity. Campbell’s strength in the poll is, in part, due to his strong ballot designation as “economist/business educator,” says Probolsky.

“It also shows the strength of the Campbell name,” he said. “These types of academic, serious ballot titles seem to carry real weight with Republican voters.” But, Probolsky added, that could all be overwhelmed in the final weeks of the campaign.

Voters will head to the polls in less than six weeks, but voting will begin much sooner. Absentee ballots will be mailed to voters in less than three weeks -- a dynamic that could be critical, said Tulchin.

“In a primary, there’s higher percentage of voters who vote by mail, and Republicans vote more by mail than Democrats,” said Tulchin. “Taking those two factors into account -- you’re talking about 70-plus percent of voters getting their ballots in the mail in less than three weeks.”