DeVore Goes Texan

Another Californian is departing for Texas. But this one is unusual. Chuck DeVore served in the California State Assembly, sought the 2010 GOP nomination to run against Barbara Boxer, and until recently, was running for a supervisorial seat in Orange County. He explains on his website:

As some of my friends know, our family has been caring for my aged in-laws, 86 and 82. As with many people who have seen a full life of war and work and raising a family, they need our help. This assistance has consumed our whole family – in fact, it’s the toughest thing – and the most important thing – we’ve done, even more so than running for statewide office.

In addition, as with many in the Golden State, I have found it hard to earn enough to support my family. My old aerospace clientele has fled to greener, less-expensive pastures. Combined with the drain on our savings caused by six years of public service in the Assembly, we have come to the reluctant conclusion that it is time to move.

The good news is that there are still other places in America where the taxes are lower and the regulations less onerous than here in California, my home for most of the past 36 years.

One such place is Texas.

It is there, I am pleased to announce, that I have accepted a position as Senior
Visiting Scholar for Fiscal Policy at the Texas Public Policy Foundation. My first order of business is to write a book on the Texas Model of how low taxes and low government spending, a light and predictable regulatory environment, respect for property rights, and a business-friendly legal climate has turned Texas into America’s jobs generating dynamo. (In fact, as part of my research, I’ve noted that almost 2 million Californians moved out of the Golden State in the past ten years – Texas, with no income tax, having received the largest number of Californians.)

CA: Air War, Not Ground War

According to census estimates, California has 37 million people, about 50 percent more than the next-largest state (Texas, with 25 million). A pair of stories in the Los Angeles Times suggest that California's sheer immensity means that the air war matters more than the ground war.

In the gubernatorial race, it's all Meg and Steve, all the time.

"It's crazy out there," said Sheri Sadler, a Democratic political media buyer, who said lower-tier candidates are having difficulty finding airtime to purchase. Television stations are turning away their regular clients because of the amount of money that Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman are pouring into television, she said.

"They are literally buying anything they can get their hands on, every spot that's available to them, everything that opens up," Sadler said, and Whitman and Poizner's camps haven't stopped even now: "They're calling every single day."

Whitman has spent $47 million on television and radio ads, while Poizner has spent nearly $18 million in his ad campaign, which began months after Whitman's. Californians have been unable to avoid the deluge — according to a new Los Angeles Times/USC poll, 77% of voters surveyed from May 19 to 26 had seen a political advertisement recently. Of those voters, 80% had seen a Whitman ad and 71% had viewed a Poizner ad.

In the Senate race, tea party support for Chuck DeVore can only do him limited good.

Dawn Wildman, California coordinator for the Tea Party Patriots, an umbrella group, said she constantly hears about independent efforts for DeVore — including precinct walking, sign rallies and voter-to-voter calls — in her weekly conference calls with organizers of the 160 Patriots groups.

"One of the few races that I've seen absolute consensus on has actually been the Chuck DeVore race," she said. But she admits that it is more difficult to marshal grass-root forces in California than in a smaller state like Kentucky.

"Just from the distance perspective, it truly is like herding cats in California," she said.

CA: PPIC Poll

The latest poll from the Public Policy Institute of California:

Support for Meg Whitman has plummeted 23 points since March, and she is now in a far closer race with Steve Poizner to become the Republican nominee for governor.... Less than a month before the June primary, Whitman leads Poizner 38 percent to 29 percent among Californians likely to vote in the Republican primary. A third of likely voters (31%) are undecided. In January, Whitman led Poizner by 30 points (41% Whitman, 11% Poizner, 44% undecided) and in March, by 50 points (61% Whitman, 11% Poizner, 25% undecided).

...

The Republican senate primary race is also close, with Carly Fiorina (25%) and Tom Campbell (23%) deadlocked, as they were in March (24% Fiorina, 23% Campbell), and support doubling for Chuck DeVore (16% today, 8% March) among GOP likely voters. Thirty-six percent are undecided. Fiorina and Campbell have similar levels of support among men (29% Fiorina, 25% Campbell, 17% Devore), with 29 percent undecided. Support for the two candidates is also similar among women (21% Fiorina, 20% Campbell, 14% DeVore), but 44 percent of women are still undecided.

The full report is here.

CA: Northern Exposure

Of California's six major candidates for governor and senator, five have their base in Northern California: Jerry Brown (former mayor of Oakland), Barbara Boxer (who owns a home in RanchoMirage but made her career in Marin County), Tom Campbell (former House member from the Silicon Valley), as well as high-tech businesspeople Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, and Steve Poizner. Only Chuck DeVore has firm roots in the Southland.

That situation is an anomaly, since Southern California has much more of the state's wealth and population. So what's happening? Mike Zapler of the San Jose Mercury News reports:

Experts in the state's political geography chalk up the slate of northern candidates this year to several factors: the engine of wealth that Silicon Valley has become, producing a rash of ambitious, well-heeled executives who can finance their own campaigns; the growing Democratic voter registration in the Los Angeles area, narrowing the terrain for Republicans to blossom into viable statewide candidates; and pure happenstance.

"With the exception of Schwarzenegger, who's anomalous in a lot of ways, there hasn't been a pool of Republicans from Southern California who are next in line to run statewide," said Ken Miller, a government professor at Claremont McKenna College. "Instead, their base has increasingly become the Inland Empire and Central Valley, but there's not a lot of (campaign) money in those areas. So you've got this weird situation where Republican candidates are coming from the Bay Area, and they're much more socially moderate than the median voter in a Republican primary."

CA: Prominent Blogger May Back Fiorina

CNN reports:

A prominent conservative is issuing an ultimatum, essentially telling the candidate he supports to do better in the polls – or lose his support.

Erick Erickson, editor-in-chief of RedState.com, backs Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in the California Republican senate primary. DeVore is locked in a battle with former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and former Rep. Tom Campbell for the right to face Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer in November.

Speaking Tuesday with CNN Chief National Correspondent John King, Erickson – a CNN contributor - said he won't support DeVore much longer if the candidate does not improve his political standing.

CA: DeVore's Senate Bid

Chuck DeVore has the problem of being a state legislator:

"Ballot titles matter a lot in California," DeVore told a Family Action PAC luncheon at the Pacific Club in Newport Beach. "They called me a California state assemblyman. That's like saying Chuck DeVore's a thief. My actual title is assemblyman/military reservist. In our internal polling, that change alone doubled my support, when people found out I was not merely a scum-sucking politician."

The candidate saw a glimmer of hope in a recent poll that showed him in a statistical tie with Fiorina for second place. The Capitol Weekly poll, the first independent survey to use his approved ballot title "assemblyman/military reservist," showed Campbell leading with 31%, Fiorina with 17% and DeVore with 14%, a statistical tie once the margin of error is factored in. Some 37% are undecided.

But a big problem is that he does not have enough money for TV ads.

CA: Poll Has Good News for Campbell

A new Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research survey shows Whitman leading Poizner 47-19 percent. He has brought her below fifty percent, but she still leads by more than two to one. The Senate results are good news for Campbell, as Capitol Weekly reports:

In the Senate race, former Congressman Tom Campbell was favored by 31 percent of respondents. Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina was next with 17 percent, followed by Assemblyman Chuck DeVore at 14 percent. More than 37 percent of those surveyed said they were still undecided.

Unlike the governor’s race, the U.S. Senate race has not seen a barrage of paid media activity. Campbell’s strength in the poll is, in part, due to his strong ballot designation as “economist/business educator,” says Probolsky.

“It also shows the strength of the Campbell name,” he said. “These types of academic, serious ballot titles seem to carry real weight with Republican voters.” But, Probolsky added, that could all be overwhelmed in the final weeks of the campaign.

Voters will head to the polls in less than six weeks, but voting will begin much sooner. Absentee ballots will be mailed to voters in less than three weeks -- a dynamic that could be critical, said Tulchin.

“In a primary, there’s higher percentage of voters who vote by mail, and Republicans vote more by mail than Democrats,” said Tulchin. “Taking those two factors into account -- you’re talking about 70-plus percent of voters getting their ballots in the mail in less than three weeks.”