Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman's scant voting record is viewed poorly by more than half of likely voters, but many aren't thrilled with Democratic rival Jerry Brown's age, either.
In a wide-ranging measure of the candidate characteristics that matter most to voters, a report released today by the nonpartisan Field Poll depicts an electorate that favors both political and business experience as well as progressive or moderate views.
Of likely voters surveyed, 54 percent said they are less inclined to vote for a candidate for high office who hasn't voted in many statewide elections, while 4 percent said they are more likely to. The difference – what Field calls the net negative effect – is 50 points.
Meanwhile, 37 percent of likely voters are less likely to vote for a candidate who is older than 70, according to the poll. Brown is 72.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Strategy Overview
Democrats are playing on a field that favors their rivals and with messages that advantage the GOP. Their only choice is to change the dialogue. They need to make the contest a choice between two competing visions rather than a referendum on their own leadership. And that imperative has them playing the political equivalent of small ball.Democrats have "got to remind people what Republicans were -- the party they rejected last time," said former Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., who led his party's campaign efforts in 2004. "That's good politics if you can make it stick. The problem is, it's only good for a day or two at a time."
Republicans, meanwhile, are no strangers to nitpicking their way through an unfavorable landscape...
None of those attacks will move a vote on their own, just as Democrats shouldn't count on building their majority on the back of Joe Barton. But the Democratic strategy has more to do with building a narrative about who Republicans are. And, in truth, Republicans remain even less popular than Democrats.
"It's going to take a bunch of bloopers. They're going to have to put a lot of hits together to get a rally going," the GOP's Davis said, when asked how Democrats can succeed with their strategy. "The only good news for Democrats is that they're running against Republicans."
American Crossroads and the Ground War
Traditionally, outside groups like the American Action Network have mostly spent money on TV ads.
But now there's anxiety that Democrats might win the ground war. So the groups are putting in more effort there.
"We do expect to be able to pinpoint individual voters based on issues and how they feel about them, and communicate directly with them through a variety of means," says American Crossroads President Steven Law.
But microtargeting only takes you so far. Law says it's much harder for an independent group to organize the final stage of voter mobilization — the face-to-face contacts aimed at getting people to the polls. That's something the RNC would normally finance.
"I don't know whether at American Crossroads we would have a significant boots-on-the-ground component in this election cycle — I don't know that that's going to be achievable for us," Collins says.
Friday, July 9, 2010
CA: Whitman, Brown, and Latinos
On the heels of a poll that showed Republican gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman improving her standing among Latinos, Democratic rival Jerry Brown on Thursday launched an appeal to this vital bloc of voters, who are crucial to his election but have yet to show strong allegiance to him.
Brown, flanked by more than a dozen Latino leaders at Cal State L.A., said Latinos would not be duped by Whitman's recent overtures and would remember the Republican's harsh words about illegal immigration during the GOP primary.
"Listen, you can put up your billboards in Spanish and you can buy stuff on Spanish television, but the people aren't fooled. The people know the truth," he said. "Between now and November, we're going to deliver that message up and down the state."
Brown has come under withering criticism by fellow Democrats for his campaign's lack of visible energy and lack of outreach to Latinos. This week, the campaign hired its first fluent Spanish speaker, and a spokesman said its website would be translated into Spanish soon.
Democrats React to Outside GOP Groups
Democratic Party officials are sending a wake-up call to the party's operatives, allies and grassroots supporters, saying they could be vastly outspent by Republican-leaning outside interest groups in November's midterm elections.
A four-page memorandum circulating widely among Democrats estimates that conservative interest groups, including the newly-minted American Crossroads, could collectively spend upwards of $300 million on the fall campaigns -- a far larger sum than in previous election cycles. Democrats have been slow to recognize the impending threat of such third-party groups, but have now concluded that conservative groups are likely to dramatically outspend liberal groups this cycle, said one Democratic official.
Sam Stein reports at The Huffington Post:
Over the past few weeks, top Democratic Party strategists have been passed a chart by a concerned, well-respected operative underscoring the daunting task they face in the 2010 elections.
On the left hand side of the chart is a list of ten Republican aligned institutions, ranging from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to the Family Research Council. Next to it is a column listing the amount of money each group has pledged to spend by Election Day. A third column on the right details what those groups actually spent in 2008 on federal elections.
The number at the bottom delivers the key message. If their pledges are fulfilled, these ten groups will unleash more than $200 million in election-focused spending -- roughly $37 million more than every single independent group spent on the 2008 presidential campaign combined. This time around, almost every single penny will be going to Republican candidates or causes.
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Outside GOP Groups in 2010
The new conservative groups aren't the first to work outside the GOP establishment -- even if many of their key personnel are inside-the-Beltway veterans. Freedom's Watch, which billed itself as a conservative version of MoveOn, spent $30 million during the 2008 cycle but shut down soon after the election when it failed to get close to the $250 million it had promised to spend to defeat Democrats that year.
"Freedom's Watch tried to fill that void, but they didn't wind up with the money they thought they would and closed their door," said [American Crossroads political director Carl] Forti, insisting that things are different now. "People recognize the tremendous opportunity for Republicans this year and that this role needs to be filled. Republicans are sick and tired of being outspent by Democrats."
The plethora of new groups mirrors an earlier Democratic organizational surge. "When you're winning, there's less imperative to start groups like this. When you're losing, there is," [pollster Whit] Ayres said. "We have lagged but we're fast catching up."
[Former RNC chair Ed] Gillespie agreed that Democrats had a head start in forming outside political action groups. "Republicans have finally come to terms that McCain-Feingold is the law of the land," he told AOL News. "It's probably time after three [election] cycles to stop complaining about it and start adapting to it. ... We just can't allow the left to have that playing field to themselves."