Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.
War and economic woes will hurt the GOP in November. The only question is how much.
The beef issue is a classic concentrated-losers/diffuse-gainers situation. The GOP was in a similar bind in 1986 with oil prices.
President Donald Trump’s latest effort to lower beef prices ahead of November’s midterms has rattled cattle markets, infuriated beef industry groups and alienated some conservatives. And it’s not clear the move will pay off at the meat counter.
Trump said Friday that he plans to remove duties on 300,000 metric tons of imported beef, which he said suppliers have agreed to sell at a 25 percent discount that will be passed on to consumers. He’s set to sign an executive order to that effect within the next two weeks, according to a White House official who was granted anonymity to discuss the plans.
But growing backlash to Trump’s beef import plan illustrates the stakes of a White House political gamble to confront high food prices that threaten Republicans at the ballot box, despite the risk of sparking industry resistance that has previously derailed similar plans.
Many of Trump’s supporters cite the cost of living as the biggest failure of the president’s second term. Yet many ranchers and Republicans argue boosting imports from foreign countries won’t tangibly lower beef prices in the short term — raising the prospect that Trump’s still-pending order could alienate ranchers without delivering noticeable relief to voters.
“You don’t put America first by putting U.S. cattle producers last,” said Justin Tupper, president of the United States Cattlemen’s Association, in a statement after Trump’s announcement.
The increased imports will last 90 days — just through November’s midterm elections.
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“This is Donald Trump in purgatory,” said one ag industry representative who was granted anonymity to candidly discuss the plan. “He’s trading his long-term strategy for a short-term sugar fix, and it’s not going to do enough to alter the price of beef or any other higher elevated costs in the economy to help them in the election. It’s going to just piss off farmers and ranchers.”
It’s not the first time Trump has been caught between pleasing ranchers, a loyal GOP constituency, and addressing affordability. But the price of a summertime hamburger has continued to climb: Ground beef cost close to $7 a pound on average last month. Prices have skyrocketed due to high demand and a decades-low cattle inventory diminished by severe weather, industry consolidation and high operating costs.
