Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. Some takeaways from the 8/10 primaries:
- Democratic socialists are significant, not invincible.
- Older incumbents are vulnerable to primary challengers
- Primary polling is problematic
- Trump's grasp on the GOP primary electorate is loosening.
In Wisconsin's Democratic primary, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley upset democratic socialist Francesca Hong, 39.8% to 39.4% — checking the progressive left's momentum after some polls showed her up by more than 20 points.Crowley must now prove the argument that powered his rise: that a mainstream Democrat gives the party a better chance in November against the election-denying, Trump-backed Rep. Tom Tiffany.
Takeaways from last night's results:The race was the latest example of flawed polling in Democratic primaries. Polling showed Hong with a big lead.
A democratic socialist came within about 3,000 votes of winning a major-party nomination for governor in one of America's premier swing states yesterday. So the result reflects both the left's rise and limits.
Wisconsin's November election will be historic. Tiffany would be the first person who voted to overturn the 2020 presidential election results in Congress to become governor of a top swing state if he won. And Crowley would be the first Black governor in Wisconsin history.
The progressive surge is still producing big wins:In Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (59%) trounced Rep. Angie Craig (39.4%) by 20 points despite Craig's overwhelming money advantage and her pitch that a swing-district record made her more electable.
Democrats nominated progressive Matt Little to replace Craig in Congress.
Voters continue retiring aging longtime incumbents:7th House Dem loses: Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.), 78, a 14-termer, lost by 20+ points last night to his primary challenger, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, age 47 (54% to 33%). Larson is the 10th House member ousted in this year's primaries. Seven have been Dems, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.
Connecticut state Rep. Maryam Khan defeated a state senator with 22 years in the capitol. 26-year-old Eli Sabin defeated the state's longest-serving state House member.
On the right: Trump's endorsement failed to rescue one of his highest-profile allies. MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell lost the GOP governor nomination in Minnesota to state Speaker Lisa Demuth.But another of his candidates advanced: In South Carolina, Trump-endorsed Sen. Darline Graham (33%) and Rep. Ralph Norman (25%), a hardline conservative, move to an Aug. 25 runoff in the special Republican primary to replace the late Lindsey Graham. Go deeper.
