Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.
War and economic woes will hurt the GOP in November. The only question is how much.
The beef issue is a classic concentrated-losers/diffuse-gainers situation. The GOP was in a similar bind in 1986 with oil prices.
Coming soon to a Democratic attack ad near you:
TRUMP: “We'll by Argentinian beef.”
— ThePatrioticBlonde™🇺🇸 (@ImBreckWorsham) August 23, 2026
Reporters:' What about the US farmers who are suffering?'
Trump: “Argentina is fighting for its life. Do you understand me? They’re dying.”
He says this as 77 American cattle producers are going out of business in the US per day.…
Trump has restarted a trade war with Canada. Bad economics, bad politics.
More than 30 percent of Ohio’s exports go to Canada, and almost 40 percent of Michigan’s. Both states will this year elect a U.S. senator and fill open governor’s seats. Not only is Trump putting at risk his party’s position in purple Michigan, but suddenly the races in beet-red Ohio look in jeopardy too. These states may turn control of the Senate—and Trump’s chances of facing meaningful accountability next year for his law-breaking and corruption.
Trump’s theory of his trade war, like his theory of his Iran war, is that the bigger bully always wins. Size counts for a lot, but not for everything.
As Trump has declared over and over again, his ultimate goal in this trade war is to add Canada as a 51st state. Why? To make the United States look bigger on the map. For that goal, which excites ultra-MAGA crackpots, Trump is hazarding not only America’s most important trading relationships but very possibly every other political equity he holds, including avoiding investigations and accountability by a Democratic House and Senate after January 2027
