The GOP Leadership Generation

Andrew Kohut writes at Pew:

By the looks of the most recent nationwide polling, the Republicans may well have the makings of a new guard to choose from to take on the Democrats in 2016. And it is shaping up to be a relatively young field of candidates, especially when compared to the most talked about likely Democratic nominees. But while the Republicans may have the new faces to appeal to a younger, broader slice of the electorate, they remain divided on how, and if the GOP should change itself to be more competitive in the future.

Nonetheless, it is ironic that the GOP, which has lost the youth vote in the last three presidential elections by double digits, has a younger potential field of candidates than the Democrats, who have carried Millennials and GenXers in the last three elections.

Current Republican national leadership includes Rep. Paul Ryan (age 43) with a 65% favorable rating among Republicans and Independents who lean Republican according to a recent Pew Research Center survey. Not far behind Ryan is Sen. Rand Paul (age 50) who has a 55% favorable rating. He is closely followed by 42-year-old Sen. Marco Rubio with a 50% favorable rating. Gov. Chris Christie at age 50 gets a 47% favorable rating from the GOP faithful. In contrast, the Republican party’s older establishment leadership: House Speaker John Boehner (age 63) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (71) get markedly lower ratings. The youngest Republican, Sen. Ted Cruz (age 40), is still not well known by most Republicans nationally.

Scandalabra Won't Go Away

At National Journal on Wednesday, Norman Ornstein dismissed Scandalabra, saying that there is "scant evidence of any corruption or serious malfeasance overall, Darrell Issa notwithstanding."

At The Washington Post on Thursday, Barton Gellman reported:

The National Security Agency has broken privacy rules or overstepped its legal authority thousands of times each year since Congress granted the agency broad new powers in 2008, according to an internal audit and other top-secret documents.

Most of the infractions involve unauthorized surveillance of Americans or foreign intelligence targets in the United States, both of which are restricted by statute and executive order. They range from significant violations of law to typographical errors that resulted in unintended interception of U.S. e-mails and telephone calls.

The documents, provided earlier this summer to The Washington Post by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden, include a level of detail and analysis that is not routinely shared with Congress or the special court that oversees surveillance. In one of the documents, agency personnel are instructed to remove details and substitute more generic language in reports to the Justice Department and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Kasich: Kemp Redux?

The Wall Street Journal reports on Ohio Governor John Kasich:

More so than any other leading Republican, Gov. Kasich is using his perch to promote a blend of conservative orthodoxy leavened with liberal policies meant to help the poor, the mentally ill and the uninsured.

To hear him tell it, the 61-year-old onetime Lehman Brothers executive wants to rebrand the Republican Party by refashioning what it means to be a conservative in the 21st century.

On the one hand, he tamed a deficit by slashing funding to local governments and overhauling the state's Medicaid rules, among things. He has eliminated the state's estate tax and wants to phase out all state income taxes, a step aimed at stimulating growth. A budget he signed in June included a range of new abortion restrictions that drew sharp criticism from Democrats.

At the same time, Mr. Kasich has stirred strong opposition from tea-party leaders—and won surprised approval from liberals—by pushing to expand Medicaid coverage to nearly 300,000 additional Ohioans, adopting a provision of the Obama health-care overhaul that he has taken to defending with an openly religious fervor..

..
Driving back to Ohio last month from a Cape Cod vacation with his family, Mr. Kasich stopped to eat in Buffalo, N.Y. He asked a few people at random if they had ever met Jack Kemp, the late Buffalo Bills quarterback who became a congressman and 1996 vice-presidential nominee.

Mr. Kemp, who once described himself as a "bleeding-heart conservative," built a reputation as a Republican who focused on urban minorities and the poor.

"It was Jack, over and over again, who talked about lifting people, about hopes and dreams," Mr. Kasich said. "Jack had a profound impact on the conservative moment. Maybe I have a chance to do that, too."

See Kasich's action on an autism insurance mandate. 

Are Republicans Out of Step?

Sean Trende writes:

To really get at public opinion as it relates to elections, it probably isn’t best to isolate a few issues. Rather, let’s look at some omnibus measurements of the parties. For this, I will borrow from two excellent articles from political scientist John Sides. As Sides notes, YouGov asked respondents throughout 2012 to rate themselves ideologically, and to rate the candidates ideologically as well. Note that Romney consistently polls significantly closer to the “average voter” -- at least the way the average voter perceives him- or herself -- than Obama does
...
In fact, Larry Bartels has found that despite the Democratic Leadership Committee makeover of the early 1990s, Democratic candidates are viewed as slightly more liberal than they were in the 1980s, while perception of Republicans hasn’t really budged. The chart below shows how voters have described the parties on a scale of 1 to 7, with the high number being a very conservative position and the low number being very liberal, from 1968 to 2008.

Similarly, using cross-survey data to estimate how liberal or conservative the general public is, we note a distinct rightward movement throughout the Obama presidency:

Shutdown?

Robert Costa reports at National Review Online:

“A shutdown? It’s not happening, it’s really not, but I guess you won’t hear people say that out loud, including me,” chuckles a senior House Republican. “No one, you see, wants to be ‘out-toughed’ on Obamacare. We’re out here talking about repeal everyday. But the speaker and everybody else here know that the Senate votes, unfortunately, will never be there to pass a continuing resolution to defund Obamacare.”

This delicate political situation has forced Boehner and Cantor to work against the shutdown caucus but without antagonizing it. It’s a wink-wink kabuki dance of the highest order. They can’t alienate their conservative members who have been enthralled by the shutdown talk of Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, but they can’t have them dictating the fiscal negotiations, either. “Look, we want to protect the American people from Obamacare, and we’ll look at any realistic strategy to do that,” says a leadership aide. “Right now, though, no one seems to able to explain how we win a shutdown fight. Until that changes, it doesn’t make any sense to have one.”

Immutable Rules

Chris Cillizza writes:

So, when Reid Wilson, the newest Post political reporter, penned a column entitled “The Five Rules of Politics” we were intrigued — to say the least. Here are Reid’s five rules: 1) He who understands the rules will win 2) All politics, and politicians, are local 3) The uber-strategist is a myth 4) The only constant is change 5) Campaigns matter.

Reid’s right. But five rules isn’t nearly enough! Below are five more. Got some of your own? Let’s hear them. We want to build a standing “Fix Rules of Politics” post.... 

1. Money is most things…but not everything.
2. ….and no swing voter cares about campaign finance reform.
3. Candidates matter.
4. No politician goes to Iowa by accident. NONE.
5. Saying “no” to a race doesn’t mean you aren’t running.

In response to the request, I offer five more rules:

1.  Politicians' positions on institutional and procedural issues depend on whether their side wins or loses. The party holding the White House supports "our president." The other party wants to curb "abuse of executive power." The minority party in a legislative chamber wants careful deliberation and protection of minority rights, such as the filibuster.  The majority party wants to stop obstructionism and make the trains run on time. Either party backs "states' rights" when the states do stuff that it likes.
2.  Negative stories about politicians draw on their enemies' oppo guys.  Fred Thompson put it best: "People may think that news organizations have legions of Woodwards and Bernsteins fanned out across the country, poring through old courthouse records or public business records and talking to anyone they think may have some dirt to dish on a candidate. They don’t. They don’t have the money, for one thing. No, the days of Woodward and Bernstein, intrepid investigative reporters, are over. Investigative reporters have been replaced by people who keep a big basket under the transom to catch the dossiers and other materials that the various campaigns drop on opposing candidates."
3.  Most Americans don't know diddly about politics.  People know who the president is.  That's just about the only bit of political knowledge that we can count on.  This rule is important to remember in the interpretation of poll results because people will express an opinion even when they know nothing about the issue.  Surveys have shown that they will answer questions about bills and laws that do not even exist.
4.  Ghostwriters produce most of the words that come from politicians.  Sometimes, the pols don't even read them. For instance, Trent Lott's memoir, Herding Cats, contained so many factual errors that it's hard to believe that he bothered to review the manuscript that his ghost produced.
5.  Lawmakers don't read the bills.  As Stan Lee would say, "`Nuff said."

What Christie Needs to Do

At The Daily Beast, Lloyd Green compares Chris Christie to Rudy Giuliani, another Northeastern Republican with cross-party appeal .  As we explained in Epic Journey, Giuliani's 2008 nomination campaign fizzled.  The article cautions that Christie's elbows-out political style, like Giuliani's, is a liability.

Take Christie’s blowup with Senator Paul over National Security Agency surveillance. At a recent Aspen Institute confab, Christie derided libertarianism as a “very dangerous thought,” and then invoked 9/11’s “widows and orphans” to batter Paul. The senator fired back, and pointed to New Jersey taking federal aid for damage from Hurricane Sandy. After some more back-and-forth, Christie spurned Paul’s offer to sit down and talk over a beer, and managed to offend libertarians as well as a few establishmentarians.

A presidential appointee and veteran of the last three winning Republican campaigns told me, “Christie should have had the beer with Paul, welcomed him to New Jersey, given him some pizza and saltwater taffy, that sort of thing.” The Reagan, Bush 41, and 43 alum continued, “Paul is an ophthalmologist, and Bausch & Lomb’s global pharmaceuticals division is in Madison, N.J. It’s called graciousness.”

...

If Christie intends to continue with a hard line on surveillance, he should at least need to leaven his approach with personal transparency. Fair’s fair. If he wants to know our secrets, then we should know his. At least as they pertain to his public duties.

For starters, Christie should announce that his office expense records during his tenure as a federal prosecutor for New Jersey and as governor will not be shielded from public scrutiny. As a gubernatorial candidate in 2009, Christie’s records as U.S. attorney were the subject of a Freedom of Information Act cat-and-mouse game between Christie; his opponent, the since-disgraced former New Jersey governor Jon Corzine; and an eager press. Secrecy from Iran, China, Russia, and al Qaeda is one thing; secrecy from tax-paying citizens about things domestic is a whole other story.

Anyway, that stuff usually sees the light of day. We have come to learn about George W. Bush’s DUI arrest, Giuliani’s client base, Mitt Romney’s offshore holdings and tax returns, and Hillary’s conflict-laden, taxpayer-funded, sweetheart deal with Anthony Weiner’s wife, Huma Abedin.