Big Mad Don

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments -- including the snatching of Maduro from Venezuela.

Whoa. Trump goes nuclear on the five Republicans who backed the Venezuela war powers resolution, saying they “should never be elected to office again.”

He names them: Collins, Murkowski, Paul, Hawley, Young pic.twitter.com/YvCKdhNzWx

— Andrew Desiderio (@AndrewDesiderio) January 8, 2026

Josh Dawsey, Annie Linskey, Lindsay Wise, and  Siobhan Hughes at The Wall Street Journal:

President Trump called Republican senators on Thursday to personally rebuke them for supporting a war-powers resolution that served as a symbolic repudiation of the administration’s moves in Venezuela, according to congressional and White House officials familiar with the calls.

Trump called Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky, Susan Collins of Maine, Josh Hawley of Missouri, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and Todd Young of Indiana, the officials said.

In at least some of the calls, he told the senators they were voting against the military, two officials said.

...

A spokeswoman for Collins confirmed he called the senator. Trump expressed frustration at Collins for her vote, according to a person familiar with the matter. The president complained that she never did anything for him and said that supporting his efforts in Venezuela—and voting against the resolution—were important for the country, the person said. Most of the call involved Trump expressing his rage, and at one point he did say that he was so angry he might support Collins’s opponent, the person said.

Collins doesn’t have a Republican opponent. So far, only Democratic Gov. Janet Mills and Democrat Graham Platner, an oyster farmer, have indicated that they plan to run. The deadline for running is March 15, according to the secretary of state’s office, and the paperwork related to those bids became available last week, the office said.

When reporters read Trump’s social-media post to Collins Thursday after the vote, she said dryly that Trump “obviously is unhappy with the vote,” adding, “I guess this means that he would prefer to have Gov. Mills or somebody else.”

Autism in the 2016 Election

At Autism Live, I talk about the issue of autism in the 2016 presidential election, mentioning Trump and Rand Paul, among others.

Rand Paul, Libertarians, and Republicans

Libertarians have a highly consistent political philosophy, favoring less active government across the board:  in economics, social policy, and international affairs.

Carl Cannon writes of last night's GOP debate:

Kentucky’s junior senator pounced on Trump’s answer on party unity, but he later tangled heatedly with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie over civil liberties. “I’m a different kind of Republican,” Paul said near the end of the two-hour debate. He may be understating the problem. Paul is actually a Libertarian, and a principled one, be he’s stuck in a binary political system. He did get off one of the best lines of the night, though, while turning a gay marriage question into a question about religious freedom and the Second Amendment: “I don’t want my religion, or my guns, registered in Washington.”

Paul's basic problem is simple:  he is a libertarian in a party that does not have a significant libertarian wing. His father, Ron Paul, ran twice for president but never won a single primary.  In 2014, Pew reported that only about 12 percent of Republicans identified as libertarians, and many of them did not have consistently libertarian issue positions:

Libertarianism is associated with limited government involvement in the social sphere. In this regard, self-described libertarians are somewhat more supportive of legalizing marijuana than the public overall (65% vs. 54%).

But there are only slight differences between libertarians and the public in views of the acceptability of homosexuality. And they are about as likely as others to favor allowing the police “to stop and search anyone who fits the general description of a crime suspect” (42% of libertarians, 41% of the public).

Similarly, self-described libertarians do not differ a great deal from the public in opinions about foreign policy. Libertarianism is generally associated with a less activist foreign policy, yet a greater share of self-described libertarians (43%) than the public (35%) think “it is best for the future of our country to be active in world affairs.”
...

An alternative way to identify libertarians is the process used to create the Pew Research Center’s political typology, released in June (for more on how the political typology was created, read our explainer in Fact Tank). That study used a statistical technique called “cluster analysis” to sort people into homogeneous groups, based on their responses to 23 questions about a variety of social and political values.

None of the seven groups identified by the 2014 political typology closely resembled libertarians, and, in fact, self-described libertarians can be found in all seven. Their largest representation is among the group we call Business Conservatives; 27% of this group says the term libertarian describes them well. Business Conservatives generally support limited government, have positive views of business and the U.S. economic system, and are more moderate than other conservative groups on the issue of homosexuality. However, they are also supportive of an activist foreign policy and do not have a libertarian profile on issues of civil liberties.

(A slightly different version of this post is at the Besssette-Pitney textbook blog.)

The Crime Issue, Redux

Heather McDonald writes at The Wall Street Journal:

The nation’s two-decades-long crime decline may be over. Gun violence in particular is spiraling upward in cities across America. In Baltimore, the most pressing question every morning is how many people were shot the previous night. Gun violence is up more than 60% compared with this time last year, according to Baltimore police, with 32 shootings over Memorial Day weekend. May has been the most violent month the city has seen in 15 years.

In Milwaukee, homicides were up 180% by May 17 over the same period the previous year. Through April, shootings in St. Louis were up 39%, robberies 43%, and homicides 25%. “Crime is the worst I’ve ever seen it,” said St. Louis Alderman Joe Vacarro at a May 7 City Hall hearing.

Murders in Atlanta were up 32% as of mid-May. Shootings in Chicago had increased 24% and homicides 17%. Shootings and other violent felonies in Los Angeles had spiked by 25%; in New York, murder was up nearly 13%, and gun violence 7%.

Those citywide statistics from law-enforcement officials mask even more startling neighborhood-level increases. Shooting incidents are up 500% in an East Harlem precinct compared with last year; in a South Central Los Angeles police division, shooting victims are up 100%.

By contrast, the first six months of 2014 continued a 20-year pattern of growing public safety. Violent crime in the first half of last year dropped 4.6% nationally and property crime was down 7.5%. Though comparable national figures for the first half of 2015 won’t be available for another year, the January through June 2014 crime decline is unlikely to be repeated.

If crime roars back, the effects will not be good for candidates who have moved  left on the issue, including Hillary Clinton and Rand Paul.

Law and Order Redux?

Lloyd Green writes at The Daily Beast:

According to a Wall Street Journal/NBC Poll released Sunday, a majority of Americans and almost three-in-five whites blame the rioters and looters for the rioting and looting—not the cops and not the system. At the same time, 96 percent of America expect a hot summer ahead.

Message to Hillary Clinton: Law and order still counts.

Yet, Clinton has embraced the demands of the urban end of the Democrats’ upstairs-downstairs coalition, history be damned. Her campaign rollout video had no footage of cops or firefighters. Then, last week, as the keynote speaker at Columbia University’s 18th Annual David N. Dinkins Leadership and Public Policy Forum (the fate of Dinkins, defeated for reelection after a single term because of the law-and-order issue, ought to tell her something), Clinton demanded body cameras in every police department in the country, and the end to an “era of mass incarceration.”

As Lloyd has also pointed out, the crime issue to likely to bite Rand "Here I am with Al Sharpton" Paul. 

Expect to see a lot of this photo.

Rand Paul Glitches

Andrew Kaczynski reports at Buzzfeed about photos (later removed) on the Rand Paul site:

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul launched his presidential campaign Tuesday complete with a page to endorse the new presidential candidate.

The endorsements are then presented on a map of the United States.

The people on the endorsement map, however, appear to be stock images from a Italian photographer Andrea Piacquadio who goes by the name Olly or Ollyy on stock image sites,and according to his Shutterstock page, is based in Germany.

In his announcement, Paul said:

I believe in applying Reagan’s approach to foreign policy to the Iran issue. Successful negotiations with untrustworthy adversaries are only achieved from a position of strength.

In the Iran-Contra affair -- which even the most ardent Reagan supporters concede was a massive botch -- the United States sold arms to Iran and diverted the profits to Nicaraguan rebels.  The president sent National Security Adviser Robert McFarlane to Tehran in 1986.  The deal had many strange aspects, including this one, as a congressional report recounted:

 Hopeful of success, [Lt. Col. Oliver] North arranged logistical support for the return of the hostages and prepared a press kit for the White House.3 North added his own flourish: He ordered a chocolate cake from an Israeli baker as a gift for the Iranians

Early Polls

PPP's  national  poll has Walker is at 25% to 18% for Ben Carson, 17% for Jeb Bush, 10%

for Mike Huckabee. Chris Christie and Ted Cruz at 5%, Rand Paul at 4%, and Rick Perry and Marco Rubio at 3%.

In South Carolina, PPP  has Bush in a statistical tie with Walker 19%-18%.  Carson and Graham tie for in third at 13%, Huckabee with 12%, the rest in single digits.

Quinnipiac has Walker at 25% among likely Iowa Republican caucus participants with 13% for Paul, 11 %each for Carson and Huckabee and 10 % for Jeb Bush. No other candidate is above 5% and 9% are undecided.  In a combination of first and second choices, Walker has 37%, with 21% percent for Paul, 20% for Bush, 19% for Carson and 18%  for Huckabee.

The Field Poll finds Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker at 18%, and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush at 16%, holding a small lead in California over a host of other Republican hopefuls who divide another 47% of the vote. About one in five likely GOP primary voters (19%) are undecided.

UT Austin poll of Texas:

..................................First Choice Second Choice

1. Ted Cruz .................20% .............12%

2. Scott Walker ...........19 ................15

3. Jeb Bush ...................9 ................6

4. Ben Carson ...............9 ................13

5. Rick Perry ................8 ..................8

6. Mike Huckabee ........5 ..................7

7. Rand Paul .................4 ................7

8. Marco Rubio ............4 ..................7

Rand Paul Walks Back, Stumbles

Jeremy W. Peters and Barry Meier report at The New York Times:

Back in 2009, when Rand Paul was pursuing his long-shot bid to win Kentucky’s Republican Senate primary, he spoke to a small physicians’ association that has publicized discredited medical theories, including possible links between vaccines and autism and between abortion and an increased risk of breast cancer.

At the time, Mr. Paul, an ophthalmologist, was no stranger to the group, the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons. He boasted at its annual meeting that he had been a member for more than two decades and that he relied on its research, statistics and views about the role of government in medicine.

“I am not a newcomer to AAPS,” Mr. Paul said, referring to the group.

On Monday, Mr. Paul set off an uproar when he said amid a national measles outbreak that parents should be allowed to decide whether their children needed to be vaccinated, and that he had heard from parents whose children had suffered “profound mental disorders” after being vaccinated.

In doing so, he was echoing the views of the head of the association, which has also lobbied in recent years for state laws permitting parents to opt out of mandatory inoculation programs based on their beliefs.

On Tuesday, Mr. Paul sought to clarify those comments, inviting a New York Times reporter to accompany him to the Capitol physician’s office to watch him receive a hepatitis A booster vaccination. During the visit, Mr. Paul said that he believed that the science was definitive on the matter and that vaccines were not harmful.

“It just annoys me that I’m being characterized as someone who’s against vaccines,” he said as he was rolling up his T-shirt sleeve before the shot. “That’s not what I said. I said I’ve heard of people who’ve had vaccines and they see a temporal association and they believe that.”

The clarification does not help much.  In 2012, Michele Bachmann spoke of hearing similar things, and she came across sounding like a loon.

Chris Christie and Rand Paul Make Campaign Stops in Crazytown

Vaccines made a brief appearance in the 2012 campaign.  The issue is back.  Like Michele Bachmann before them, Chris Christie and Rand Paul have made campaign stops in Crazytown.

CROSS-POSTED FROM AUTISM POLICY AND POLITICS:

The New York Times reports:

Gov. Chris Christie’s trade mission to London was suddenly overshadowed on Monday after he was quoted as saying that parents “need to have some measure of choice” about vaccinating their children against measles. The New Jersey governor, who is trying to establish his credibility among conservatives as he weighs a run for the Republican nomination in 2016, later tried to temper his response. His office released a statement clarifying that “with a disease like measles there is no question kids should be vaccinated.”

 Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, a physician, was less equivocal, telling the conservative radio host Laura Ingraham on Monday that parents should absolutely have a say in whether to vaccinate their children for measles.

“While I think it’s a good idea to take the vaccine, I think that’s a personal decision for individuals,” he said, recalling his irritation at doctors who tried to press him to vaccinate his own children. He eventually did, he said, but spaced out the vaccinations over a period of time.

... 

Asked about immunizations again later on Monday, Mr. Paul was even more insistent, saying it was a question of “freedom.” He grew irritated with a CNBC host who pressed him and snapped: “The state doesn’t own your children. Parents own the children.”

Nia-Malika Henderson reports at The Washington Post:

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) both said Monday that they favor "choice" when it comes to whether parents get their kids vaccinated. This was seen by the Democratic National Committee as "kowtowing to the fringe rhetoric of the anti-vaccination movement."

"Chris Christie isn't a scientist. He isn't a doctor. And he sure as heck isn't a leader," DNC spokesman Mo Elleithee said. "If his campaign is going to be about kissing up to the radical, conspiracy theory base that’s wagging the dog of today’s Republican Party, that’s up to him and his cracker-jack team."

Here are some Democratic figures who might want to have a word with the DNC:

• Representative Elijah Cummings (D-MD)
• Representative Carolyn Maloney (D-NY)
• Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

Andrew Kaczynski reports at Buzzfeed:

For more than two decades, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul was a member of a group, the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, that advocated a link between vaccinations and autism, among other conspiracy theories.

The AAPS, as Kentucky’s Courier-Journal noted in a 2010 article on Paul’s association with it, opposes mandatory vaccinations and promoted discredited studies, which linked the vaccine-component thimerosal to autism in children.

“Mandatory vaccines violate the medical ethic of informed consent. A case could also be made that mandates for vaccines by school districts and legislatures is the de facto practice of medicine without a license,” the group said in a fact-check.

Paul’s adviser, Doug Stafford, told BuzzFeed News he didn’t know if Paul was still a member of the group but that he joined because it was a group of pro-life doctors. He said Paul does not endorse all the group’s views.

Jane Orient, who handles media for AAPS, said she did not believe Paul had renewed his membership.

Romney Out

Mitt Romney announced yesterday that he won't run after all.  At Bloomberg, Mark Halperin offers some intriguing, if vaguely sourced, observations:

People close to the former governor say he believed he would beat Hillary Clinton in a general election matchup if the election were held today. But, like many election watchers, Romney anticipates a vicious Republican nomination fight that will damage and deplete the ultimate winner, while Clinton, virtually unchallenged for her party’s nomination, will be luxuriantly free to squirrel away hundreds of millions of election dollars and step into the general arena, rich and refreshed, against a shattered GOP nominee.

In public, Romney says nice things about Bush...

But those familiar with Romney’s thinking as he's been contemplating a run and over the years say that he has held a jaundiced view of the former Florida governor dating all the way back to his handling of the Terri Schiavo case, and has come to see Bush as a non-entity in the 2016 nomination contest. Romney is said to see Bush as a small-time businessman whose financial transactions would nonetheless be fodder for the Democrats and as terminally weighed down with voters across the board based on his family name. Romney also doesn’t think much of Bush’s political skills (a view mocked by Bush’s camp, who say Romney is nowhere near Bush’s league as a campaigner). Romney also considers Bush the national Republican figure who was the least helpful to him during his last run for the White House, a position that has darkened Ann Romney’s view of Bush as well.

Nate Cohn writes at The New York Times:

In renouncing a new run for president Friday, Mitt Romney becomes the first big casualty of the invisible primary — the behind-the-scenes competition for donors, endorsements and campaign operatives.
...

It is now clear that Mr. Bush, despite his weaknesses, has attracted much of the support that Mr. Romney wanted. The highest-profile example is David Kochel, a former Romney official who was selected Thursday as Mr. Bush’s national campaign manager. My guess is that many more will follow.
...

The candidate most obviously hurt by Mr. Romney’s withdrawal is Rand Paul, who was probably counting on a fairly divided field in New Hampshire to win an early primary. It will be much harder to win New Hampshire with less than about 30 percent of the vote — something Mr. Paul could feasibly pull off.

Rebecca Ballhuas, Heather Haddon and Josh Dawsey report at The Wall Street Journal:

“It would be such a tough thing to do to tell either one of them ’no,’ ” said Barry Wynn, a top fundraiser for Mr. Romney in 2012 and for former President George W. Bush. “I don’t know what I would have done. This would have been a very difficult decision to make.”

Mr. Wynn said he now plans to throw his support behind Mr. Bush.

His decision echoes the choice many donors are making in the wake of Friday’s news. Dirk van Dongen, who raised nearly $1.5 million for Mr. Romney’s campaign in 2012, said the Republican fundraisers he had spoken with in recent weeks were conflicted over backing Mr. Romney or Mr. Bush. “Some of them said, ‘Hey, I’d be with Jeb Bush except for the fact that I need to know what Mitt Romney is going to do.’"

Following Friday’s announcement, Mr. van Dongen said, “presumably those people will now sign onto the Bush initiative.”

“It simplifies the calculation,” added Mr. van Dongen, who said he committed to back Mr. Bush even before Mr. Romney said he was considering a bid.

Four GOP Brackets

Charles Cook identifies four brackets in the GOP nomination contest:

First there is the establishment bracket, with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and possibly former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney competing for that semifinal slot. Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina would likely fit into this group. GOP nominees traditionally come from this bracket.

Then there is the conservative governor/former governor slot—with, potentially, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker competing, all seeking to be non-Washington and non-Congress candidates, but each with more conservative, or at least better conservative, credentials than Bush, Christie, or Romney. In this anti-Washington environment, being able to say that you effectively governed, in contrast with Congress and Washington, certainly has some advantages among the non-purist conservatives.

In the third bracket are the more identifiably tea-party candidates, principally Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky, but also former Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, possibly former 2008 vice presidential nominee and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and even real-estate mogul Donald Trump (though both Palin and Trump are unlikely to make it past the first lap if they end up entering at all). This bracket is for the "mad as hell and not going to take it anymore" conservatives.

Finally, there is the social, cultural, and religious conservative bracket, made up primarily of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, tapping into the same feelings as the third group but with a distinctly moral dimension.

Scalise and the South

At The Daily Beast, Lloyd Green considers the Scalise controversy in light of the GOP's political history in the South, including Trent Lott's praise for Strom Thurmond.

“When Strom Thurmond ran for president, we voted for him,” said Lott. “We’re proud of it. And if the rest of the country had followed our lead, we wouldn’t have had all these problems over the years, either.” Coincidentally, Lott’s birthday wishes came just months after Scalise’s appearance at EURO.

But even after the Lott debacle, the Confederaten dilemma [follow link to Lloyd's 10/28/13 piece] hasn’t disappeared. In 2013, Sen. Rand Paul lost the services of Jack Hunter, Paul’s media aide and co-author, after it became known that Hunter was the “Southern Avenger,” a radio talk show host who wore a Confederate mask and had written articles praising John Wilkes Booth, Lincoln’s assassin. For good measure, Hunter boasted that he had toasted Booth’s birthday.

Confronted with Hunter’s past, Paul could only say that Hunter was “unfairly treated by the media and he was put up as target practice for people to say was a racist, and none of that’s true.” Apparently, old embers still glow.

Still, for all of this, South Carolina is now represented in the U.S. Senate by Tim Scott, a Republican and an African-American. The state also elected Republican Nikki Haley, an Indian-American, as governor. In Louisiana, Scalise’s home state, a similar story can be told, as the Pelican State’s governor is Bobby Jindal. Obviously, there’s a line between Southern and Confederate, and the GOP will need to keep reminding people of it. Scalise, however, just made that job more difficult.

2016: Nobody Can Win

It seems that every potential 2016 presidential candidate has at least one electability problem.  Some have more than one.

Hillary Clinton is tied to the Obama administration's foreign policy and the Clinton administration's scandals.  Born October 26, 1947, she would be 69 years old on Election Day, which would make her the second-oldest president after Ronald Reagan.

Elizabeth Warren, born June 22, 1949, is almost as old as Clinton. She has won only one election, in liberal Massachusetts, and her progressive politics probably would not travel well in a general election. (Think Dukakis and Kerry.) The false claims of Cherokee heritage won't help, either.

Jeb Bush is named Bush.  He also supports Common Core.

Paul Ryan proved in 2012 that he is very bright but uninspiring on the campaign trail.  Vice presidential candidates seldom help their tickets, and he was no exception:  the Republicans lost his home state of Wisconsin.  And as chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, he has a real job that would severely limit his campaign time.

Mike Huckabee is well-liked.  He also tends to make the kind of gaffes that would sink candidates who reach the top tier.

Chris Christie flunked his 2012 vice presidential vetting. Bridgegate might not bring him down, but the other stuff could.  Also, his temper -- like Warren's liberalism -- will not appeal outside the Northeast.

Rand Paul has shown terrible judgment in associating both with neo-Confederates and Al Sharpton.

Marco Rubio has alienated much of the GOP base over the issue of immigration. And if Bush gets in, much of his anticipated Florida money will disappear.

Scott Walker won reelection in 2014 despite a campaign finance scandal.  In a presidential race, however, the relevant documents will be subject to scrutiny by a large cadre of more-skillful and better-equipped opposition researchers. The email trove will be like a natural gas well that reopens when a new technology becomes available.  Call it political fracking.

Ted Cruz has alienated colleagues in the party with counterproductive legislative tactics.  Many Republican officials hate him, and they will undercut him in ways both obvious and subtle.

Bobby Jindal is still best-known for his disastrous State of the Union response.  He is unpopular back home in Louisiana.

Rick Perry is still best-known for "Oops."  Perhaps it will lower expectations for him. But another problem is that he will no longer be governor of Texas, and will not be able to gather "access money."

John Kasich expanded Medicaid, which might not hurt him in a general election but would cost him conservative support in GOP primaries.  And if Christie and Bush get in the race, it is hard to see that there will be many votes left in the establishment bracket

Dr. Ben Carson is a world-class surgeon but has never held office or run a large organization.  Every president has had one of those two experiences.  His oratory may give him an early boost, but at some point, his lack of qualifications will kick in.

Carly Fiorina, like Dr. Carson, has never won an election, but she has run an organization (HP).  That's her problem:  HP sacked her for poor performance, and her stewardship opens her up to the kind of "callous clueless rich person" attack that hurt Romney.  And at least Romney could make a plausible case that he was successful at Bain.

Rand and the Rev

Rand Paul -- who previously palled around with neo-Confederates -- recently met with Al Sharpton.  It was a bad move, and it looks even worse after recent cop killings in New York. Lloyd Green writes at the Daily Beast:

Paul’s flirtation with Sharpton is not just a matter of ignoring the past. Paul’s minuet is also a matter of disregarding what Republican voters are thinking in the here and now, the here and now being December 2014. The latest NBC/Marist and Pew Polls show the Republican rank and file squarely behind the police, and rightly or wrongly embracing the proposition that police treat blacks and whites alike.

Numbers speak for themselves. According to NBC/Marist Poll, 73 percent of Republicans have a great deal of confidence in the police doing a good job in enforcing the law, seven-in-10 Republicans believe that the police treat blacks and whites equally, and two-thirds disagree with President Obama’s reaction to the Ferguson and New York City grand juries’ decisions not to indict policemen. Pew reports that “Republicans widely support the Ferguson grand jury’s decision (76 percent right vs. 12 percent wrong).”

Against this backdrop, Paul breaking bread with Sharpton may be too much for Republican primary voters to watch or stomach. Unlike Barack Obama or MSNBC, the GOP hasn’t forgotten that it was Sharpton who proclaimed that Tawana had told the truth, or that Sharpton owes more than $4 million in back taxes.

2016 Presidential Stuff

In light of the cop killings in New York City, this photo will not helpful to Rand Paul:

At The Hill, Cameron Joseph writes that Jeb Bush may have some problems in the Iowa caucuses:

And just after he announced this week he’s “actively exploring” a president bid, some Iowa activists are already torching Bush’s credentials.

“He's on the wrong side of every issue that matters most to conservatives right now,” said Steve Deace, an influential Des Moines-based conservative radio host.

Deace ripped Bush for his support for immigration reform and Common Core education standards as apostates to the conservative cause before saying he’d “bet my mortgage” against Bush performing well in Iowa.

“He's not just for amnesty, he's an apostle for it. He's a pitchman for Common Core, and there's more organized conservative opposition to Common Core on the ground than anything besides ObamaCare,” he said. “He offers nothing, truly nothing. I don't know why any who's even a modicum of a conservative would vote for him.”

...
Many in the state are skeptical whether Bush is ready for a crowded Republican field of candidates — including others competing for the “establishment” mantle, like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and others who may be able to appeal to center-right voters.

At The San Jose Mercury News, Josh Richman writes that Carly Fiorina is considering a presidential run, despite losing her only campaign, the 2010 California Senate race.

Her business record is a matter of contention, too. As she reshaped HP to cope with the dot-com bubble's collapse, the company's stock value declined considerably and the board forced her resignation in 2005.

"She actually had a pretty decent vision" of reinventing HP with a richer set of consumer electronics supported by the company's own services, said tech analyst Rob Enderle. "The problem was, she didn't understand the underlying components, so executing that vision became problematic."

HP's board also didn't appreciate how much time Fiorina spent focused on President George W. Bush's 2004 re-election campaign instead of on the struggling tech giant, Enderle said. "Her history and job experience are going to kill her, but in terms of performance in front of an audience, she's in (Sarah) Palin's class and probably has a lot more depth. She's very fast on her feet."

"From an entertainment standpoint, I hope she runs," he said. "I don't think she stands a chance of winning, though."

Rubio v. Paul on Cuba

David Weigel writes at Bloomberg:

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul took his time responding to this week's Cuba policy thaw. Florida Senator Marco Rubio, the son of immigrants who fled the pre-Castro regime, called a press conference that began just a few minutes after President Obama's statement ended. Paul did not respond on the day, and media requests for a reaction were rebuffed. Not until Thursday morning, when Paul appeared on West Virginia's NewsTalk 800,did he reveal his realist, libertarian response.

"The 50-year embargo just hasn't worked," Paul said. "If the goal is regime change, it sure doesn't seem to be working, and probably it punishes the people more than the regime because the regime can blame the embargo for hardship."

Paul could have left it at that–his position was consistent with his father's, with Arizona Senator Jeff Flake, and with most libertarians who considered the Cuba policy a spectacular failure. But a few hours later, Rubio appeared on Megan Kelly's Fox News show and was asked for his "thoughts on Senator Rand Paul's comments supporting the president."

"Like many people, he has no idea what he's talking about," snapped Rubio. "I would expect that people would understand that if they just took a moment to analyze that, they would realize that the embargo is not what's hurting the Cuban people. It's the lack of freedom and the lack of competent leaders."

That got Paul thinking, and he took to social media today to pummel Rubio

2016 Presidential Race Begins

ABC reports that Jeb is in, kinda:

Jeb Bush announced this morning that he will "actively explore the possibility of running for president of the United States."

Bush said he made the decision over the Thanksgiving holiday in consultation with his family.

"As a result of these conversations and thoughtful consideration of the kind of strong leadership I think America needs, I have decided to actively explore the possibility of running for President of the United States," he said in a message posted on Facebook today.

“In January, I also plan to establish a Leadership PAC that will help me facilitate conversations with citizens across America to discuss the most critical challenges facing our exceptional nation. The PAC’s purpose will be to support leaders, ideas and policies that will expand opportunity and prosperity for all Americans,” Bush said in the message, which he also tweeted. "In the coming months, I hope to visit with many of you and have a conversation about restoring the promise of America.”

At National Review, Eliana Johnson writes of Cruz:

His strategists aren’t planning to make a big play for so-called independent voters in the general election if Cruz wins the Republican nomination. According to several of the senator’s top advisers, Cruz sees a path to victory that relies instead on increasing conservative turnout; attracting votes from groups — including Jews, Hispanics, and Millennials — that have tended to favor Democrats; and, in the words of one Cruz strategist, “not getting killed with independents.”

...
The strategy has its critics. Henry Olsen of the Ethics and Public Policy Center calls it “fantasy.” The Republican base, he says, simply isn’t large enough to win an election nationally, and the Republican nominee must “energize establishment Republicans and people who don’t call themselves conservatives.”

At National Journal, Rick Santorum talks to Alex Roarty:

Look, the last time around, it turned out to be a pretty good thing to be under the radar the whole time and not be shot at by everybody at the very first go. And you had an opportunity to build out your team. And so, if we do this again, it looks like we'll have a similar opportunity this time around. Usually you don't get two chances at that.

Also at National Journal, Shane Goldmacher writes of Rand Paul's outreach to the US Chamber and the broader business community:

Paul's political team has made a point of reaching out to influencers at the chamber and across Washington to aggressively "correct the record," as they see it, about misconceptions about their boss. Throughout 2014, Paul's media strategist, Rex Elsass, hosted a series of off-the-record dinners at his Capitol Hill home to introduce the Kentucky senator to some of Washington's power brokers. Reed, who managed Bob Dole's 1996 presidential bid, attended one such meal this spring along with Paul, Paul's wife, Kelley, and others that stretched deep into the night.

There is also activity on the Democratic side.  At RealClearPolitics, Scott Conroy notes Elizabeth Warren's use of the present tense:

In a Monday morning interview with NPR, the first-term Massachusetts Democrat was asked four different variations of the same query: Would she consider running for president in 2016?

In each instance, Warren answered the same way she has whenever someone wants to know if she harbors White House ambitions: “I am not running for president.”

That statement may sound like a Shermanesque denial at first blush, but placed in its proper context, it is anything but.

As NPR’s Steve Inskeep and many other observers have noticed, Warren always answers the presidential query in the present tense and assiduously avoids any deviation that might rule out a future bid.

Warren may not be “running for president” at the moment, but neither is anyone else, for that matter. 

Rand Paul Uses a Fake Lincoln Quotation

Rand Paul likes to use a certain Lincoln quotation.  Breitbart recently reported on the senator's New Hampshire campaign stop:

Earlier, during his remarks, Paul hammered Obama on his use of executive authority. “[Abraham] Lincoln wrote that any man can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power,” Paul said. “I think this president has failed that test at every turn because this president has said that ‘oh, well, Democracy is messy and Congress won’t give me what I want.’

Senator Paul has used that Lincoln line on Twitter, on Facebook, in The Washington Times, and in many other venues.

One problem: Lincoln never said that.  

It seems to have started in a 1909 book by Allen Thorndike Rice. If you read the book (p. 427), you see that the line is an observation about Lincoln, not a quotation of Lincoln. Somewhere along the line, a sloppy researcher apparently mixed up the two things.  And a sloppy Rand Paul ghostwriter did not bother to check.

Early Trial Heats are Predictive. Just Ask President Giuliani.

At The Washington Post, Aaron Blake writes:

It's no big surprise that Hillary Clinton has come back down to earth polling-wise in the last few months. Her stumbles aside, it was basically bound to happen eventually -- for a whole host of reasons.

A new poll from McClatchy and Marist College documents that decline pretty well. In hypothetical matchups with potential 2016 Republican candidates, Clinton has seen her lead decline from 20-plus points in February to the mid-single digits today. She leads Chris Christie by six points after leading him by 21 points six months ago. She leads Jeb Bush 48-41 after leading him by 20 in February. She leads Rand Paul 48-42 after leading him by the same margin early this year.

More than two years  away from the election, however, those data are close to meaningless.  On February 9, 2006, Dana Blanton reported at Fox News:

A new FOX News poll finds that strong support from within their party as well as from majorities of independents helps Republican candidates outperform Democratic candidates in head-to-head presidential matchups.

It might be early, but it is still fun to look at hypothetical matchups between possible 2008 candidates. The poll asked about Republican candidates Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Democratic candidates Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Overall, the Republican candidates top their Democratic opponents, and while the two Republican candidates get about the same level of support in each trial heat, Clinton performs significantly better than 2004 Democratic presidential nominee Kerry.

Among registered voters, Giuliani bests Clinton by 11 percentage points and Kerry by 19 points. McCain tops Clinton by 13 percentage points and Kerry by 20 points. These results are in line with past FOX News results on these vote questions, with the only real change being a lessening of support for Kerry.

Christie v. Huckabee

At The Daily Beast, Lloyd Green sizes up some 2016 contenders:

Christie was clearly what non-Southern high-end Republicans wanted--a hawk who kept his eye on the bond market. That Christie had posed a serious vetting problem for the Romney campaign back in 2012 was but a minor detail for Republicans, especially after eight years of Barack Obama. Likewise, Christie’s use of 9/11 and the fall of the Twin Towers to justify NSA overreach met with approval by Wall Street Republicans.

Huckabee, on the other hand, is closer to where the Republican Party lives and worships. He is an evangelical in a party in which half of its presidential primary voters are themselves evangelicals. Huckabee’s roots are rural and, as a party, the GOP is the home of white rural America. From the looks of things, Huckabee’s profile is well-tailored for 2016’s early contests, in a way that Christie’s bluster-filled mien is not.

The tentative 2016 primary calendar paints a picture of early wins for Huckabee in Iowa and South Carolina, a brawl between Paul and Christie in New Hampshire, a big industrial state primary in Michigan on February 23, and a March 1 demolition derby in Florida, Texas, and Virginia. If Christie does not score a win in New Hampshire or Michigan, his political obituary will read like Giuliani 2.0, a Northeast ex-prosecutor and pol who managed to offend more than charm.