What Divides the Parties

In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House.

Lee Drutman analyzes survey data at the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group:

• The primary conflict structuring the two parties involves questions of national identity, race, and morality, while the traditional conflict over economics, though still important, is less divisive now than it used to be. This has the potential to reshape the party coalitions.
• By making questions of national identity more salient, Donald Trump succeeded in winning over “populists” (socially conservative, economically liberal voters) who had previously voted for Democrats.
• Among populists who voted for Obama, Clinton did terribly. She held onto only 6 in 10 of these voters (59 percent). Trump picked up 27 percent of these voters, and the remaining 14 percent didn’t vote for either major party candidate.
• To the extent that the Democratic Party is divided, these divisions are more about faith in the political system and general disaffection than they are about issue positions.
• By contrast, Republican voters are more clearly split. For the most part, Trump and Cruz supporters look fairly similar, though Cruz supporters are considerably more conservative on moral issues, and notably less concerned about inequality and the social safety net, and more pro- free trade. Kasich supporters are the true moderates, caught in between the two parties on almost every issue, both economic and social.
• In both parties, the donor class is both more conservative on economic issues and more liberal on social issues, as compared to the rest of the party
• Democrats may be pressured to move further left on identity issues, given that both younger voters and the party’s donor class are quite far to the left on identity issues. If so, American politics would become further polarized along questions of culture and identity.

The Cruz-Kasich Deal

Aaron Blake writes at The Washington Post:

Ted Cruz and John Kasich just cut a very public deal with one another to stop Donald Trump. The basics of it are pretty simple: Kasich concedes the Indiana primary in hopes that Cruz can beat Trump there, and Cruz does the inverse in Oregon and New Mexico, where Kasich figures to perform well.

The idea is basically that they work together to hold Trump below the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination -- even if that means conceding delegates to one another. The Fix's Philip Bump ran the numbers and deduced that this might not help all that much.

What's also interesting here is that this isn't the first time Kasich has been presented with such a bargain. Way back in March, Marco Rubio's campaign essentially conceded the Ohio primary and took the unusual step of telling its supporters to vote for Kasich instead. This was done in hopes that Kasich would deprive Trump of delegates in Ohio -- a winner-take-all state that would have been a huge win for Trump. It was also apparently done in hopes that Kasich would return the favor in Florida -- another winner-take-all home state that Rubio needed as badly as Kasich needed Ohio.

The Kasich campaign's response: No dice.

Dark Horses

A number of posts have discussed the possibility of a contested convention.

The piece I did today at Fox and Hounds makes for a fun followup to The Best Man:

The Republican National Convention is probably going to pick Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, or (much less likely) John Kasich. Since 1972, every major-party presidential nominee has come out of the primaries and caucuses, and GOP voters seem to have little appetite for breaking with that practice. Moreover, it is not even certain that the convention will adopt rules allowing for the nomination of another candidate. A dark-horse nominee seems impossible.

And yet, 2016 is the year for believing six impossible things before breakfast. Just 12 months ago, who would have thought that Trump would be the leading candidate – or that many “establishment” Republicans would see Cruz as the best alternative? So imagine that multiple ballots result in deadlock, and that convention procedures allow delegates to pick anybody they want. Who could emerge?

For years, conventional wisdom had it that Republicans liked to turn to the candidate next in line, that is, somebody who had previously sought the nomination but placed second. In 2008, that candidate was Mike Huckabee. In 2012, it was Rick Santorum. The trouble is that both Huckabee and Santorum both ran this year, and both flopped badly

It might be logical to consider the party’s congressional leaders. House Speaker Paul Ryan has a lot going for him: brains, a solid conservative reputation, and national exposure as the 2012 vice presidential nominee. But he has taken himself out of the running with the strong declaration that he would not accept the nomination. As for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell: if you look up the term “Washington Insider,” you may see his picture. Finding that he had a 16 percent national approval rating, one pollster dubbed him “the most unpopular major political figure in the country.” Ted Cruz called him a liar, and is standing by that characterization.

Some anti-Trump conservatives are floating the name of retired Marine Corps General James Mattis. Not only did he build an awesome military career, but he also earned a couple of nicknames that will appeal to various wings of the party. “Mad Dog” would be a huge draw for foreign policy hardliners, while moderates would like “the Warrior Monk,” a soubriquet referring to his contemplative and analytical side. He has shown the physical courage that Trump only pretends to have, and his knowledge of key national security issues would put all the current candidates to shame.

Though Mattis is attractive in many ways, the experience of the most recent general-turned-dark-horse is not encouraging. In 2004, General Wesley Clark entered the Democratic race with an outstanding résumé, but his candidacy quickly fizzled when he displayed total ineptitude on the political battlefield. Though warfare has much to teach us about politics – I wrote a whole book on the topic – running for office requires skills that military officers do not automatically acquire. Dwight Eisenhower succeeded brilliantly in both realms; but alas, the Good Lord made only one of him.

Republicans might want someone with political experience, the ability to unify the party, and the potential to broaden its reach. Two South Carolinians fit this description. Governor Nikki Haley is a fiscal and social conservative who won acclaim last year for her response to the Charleston massacre, and her support for removing the Confederate battle flag from the state capitol grounds. As 44-year-old Indian American woman, she would undercut the stereotype of the GOP as the party of elderly white guys.

So would 50-year old Senator Tim Scott, the first black Republican senator from the South since Reconstruction. He has strong ties to Christian conservatives and the tea party faction, but he has also won solid reviews from unexpected quarters. Shortly before he moved from the House to the Senate, Eliza Gray wrote in the liberal magazine The New Republic: “For as long as he’s been in politics, Scott has had a knack for navigating the complex internal politics of the GOP. Armed with an ever-present smile, Scott has been able to be all things to all people. He is an insurgent Tea Partier beloved by the House leadership who keeps his constituents happy with the occasional pork project. In a Republican Party that is constantly at war with itself, Senator Scott will offer much more to the GOP than the color of his skin.”

Obscure figures who suddenly land on a national ticket can quickly get into trouble, as Dan Quayle and Sarah Palin learned. Accordingly, the choice of Mattis, Haley, Scott, or any other outside candidate would be an enormous gamble for the GOP.

But would it really be a bigger gamble than nominating a bombastic billionaire with a 67 percent unfavorable rating?

Not-So-Cuddly Kasich

At The New York Times, Thomas Kaplan, Michael Barbaro, and Steve Eder report that many voters view John Kasich as a warm fellow who is too nice for the roughness of this campaign.

Mr. Kasich’s colleagues in Ohio and Washington do not share that worry. In interviews, they recall a three-decade career in government punctuated by scolding confrontations, intemperate critiques and undiplomatic remarks.
...

The John Kasich of 2016 is a much mellower politician than the hard-charging congressman of the 1990s, who could be so difficult that House Speaker Newt Gingrich, never known for his diplomacy, offered Mr. Kasich firm advice about his tendency to bulldoze colleagues.

“I talked to him a lot about unlocking people rather than running them over,” Mr. Gingrich recalled, adding of his counsel, “I think some of that actually stuck.”

But not all of it. In Ohio, Mr. Kasich is known for flashes of impatience, anger and disdain. A police officer who pulled him over? An “idiot,” Mr. Kasich said (though he later apologized). Lobbyists? Farm animals with “their snouts in that trough,” in his words. Out-of-state rivals? “Wackadoodles.”
...

Early Voting in Primaries

Shane Goldmacher and Marc Caputo report at Politico:

Florida and Ohio, the two biggest winner-take-all prizes on the presidential primary calendar in March, aren’t waiting until next month to vote. They’re voting now — and with potentially profound consequences for the 2016 campaign.

Struggling to survive until their home states’ votes are tallied March 15, Ohio’s John Kasich and Floridians Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are racing to bank tens of thousands of early ballots that are increasingly being cast well before primary day.

... 

 In Florida, nearly 850,000 Republican absentee ballots have so far been requested. Almost 43,000 Floridians have already voted, roughly 25,000 of them Republicans.

...
As Bush and Rubio are busy working the absentee system to carve up Florida’s 99 delegates the main beneficiary of their in-state rivalry might be Ted Cruz or Donald Trump, who continue to outpoll the rest of the field.

But in Ohio, the dynamics could benefit Kasich. Polling stations there open for early in-person voting on Wednesday and Kasich appears to have the state all to himself to collect early ballots and get a jump on Ohio’s 66 delegates.

...

In Florida and beyond, Bush is getting on-the-ground help from Right to Rise, his super PAC, which is sending mailers to frequent absentee voters. "This is a long and expensive process and early voting makes it even harder for candidates with limited resources to compete,” said Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the Bush super PAC. "Some candidates will have a hard time living hand to mouth with a condensed calendar and multiple states voting at the same time."

The Rubio-backing Conservative Solutions super PAC is doing no similar work.

A Multisided Mainstream Gunfight

At The Washington Post,  Karen Tumulty, Ed O'Keefe and Philip Rucker report that candidates in the mainstream GOP wing are attacking one another. The Bush Super PAC and Chris  Christie is going after Rubio's attendance record.

Meanwhile, Right to Rise USA also launched a spot in New Hampshire contending that the gubernatorial records of Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich do not stack up against that of Bush. The ad was gentler in tone than the super PAC’s assault on Rubio, but it attempted to draw a contrast on the experience that all three of the candidates consider to be their greatest asset.

New Day in America, a super PAC supporting Kasich, responded: “What Team Jeb has failed to address is the political baggage dragging behind Bush and Christie. The country doesn’t have an appetite for another Bush, or another Clinton, for that matter. As for Governor Christie, his mishandling of his state budget and the ‘Bridgegate’ scandal have earned him a 60 percent unfavorable rating from those who know him best — the people of New Jersey.”

The crossfire, said GOP political consultant Alex Castellanos, is beginning to look like “a ‘Fistful of Dollars’ gunfight,” referring to the 1964 spaghetti western that launched Clint Eastwood to stardom.

A more apposite scene is from The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly, which featured a three-way gunfight:




Also at The Post, James Hohmann writes:

Then Mike Murphy, the strategist behind the Bush super PAC, began tweeting out pictures of embarrassing documents that his opposition researchers had collected from an archive of Kasich’s congressional papers. Among them: a 1980 thank you note from Phil Crane, the Illinois congressman whom Kasich backed over Ronald Reagan in the primaries, and a personalized letter of gratitude from Bill Clinton after Kasich supported the 1994 ban on assault weapons.

Independents and the New Hampshire Primary

In The Perfect Tie, the third book in this series, James Ceaser and Andrew Busch explain that the 2000 New Hampshire primary involved an "invisible primary" between John McCain and Bill Bradley.  They were running in different parties but competing for the large bloc of independent voters.  McCain won, enabling him to beat George W. Bush.  Bradley lost, meaning that the primary went to Gore.

James Pindell writes at The Boston Globe:

Unlike in many other states, New Hampshire voters who don’t register as Republican or Democrat can participate in either party’s primary. Republican officials are predicting that these “undeclared” voters — as many as 90,000 of the 250,000 Republican primary voters next year, according to one campaign’s count — will be inclined to pull a ballot for the GOP in the first-in-the-nation primary in large part because that contest is much more heated.

“There is no doubt that independent voters will decide this primary,” said Sarah Crawford Stewart, who ran former Utah governor Jon Huntsman’s independent-focused 2012 Republican campaign here. “And now is the time when every campaign begins looking for the unicorn: the truly independent voters that you know are there, but you have no idea where to find them.”

...
A Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll this week suggested that undeclared voters would make up 32 percent of the Republican primary electorate. Their preferences were largely the same as likely Republican voters as a whole.

New York businessman Donald Trump and Governor John Kasich of Ohio topped the list for undeclared voters with 19 percent and 14 percent, respectively. Senator Marco Rubio had the support of 12 percent of undeclared voters and Senator Ted Cruz received the support of 11 percent of the undeclared voters who were polled.

Indeed, undeclared voters could have the most impact in selecting among the more establishment-oriented candidates — like Bush, Kasich, Rubio, or Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey. These candidates are investing time and money in identifying independent voters.

Old Insiders Back Kasich

At Politico, Anna Palmer reports that John Kasich is running as an insider with insider support.

For all his talk of turning around the Buckeye State on the campaign trail, Kasich is a creature of Washington and has drawn a slew of former colleagues and K Streeters who have signed onto his steering committee to give him a financial lift.
...
New Day for America — the super PAC supporting Kasich — raised more than $11 million before he officially announced his bid. The group doesn't have to report its next haul until January. New Day for America spokeswoman Connie Wehrkamp said the group's "fundraising continues to be steady."

New Day for America has already aired an ad touting Kasich's experience in New Hampshire, a vitally important primary for the Ohio governor. The group plans to double its buy in October, bringing the total amount spent by New Day for America and New Day Independent Media Committee to $6.5 million from July through the end of October, according to a source familiar with the effort. The super PAC is building out its grassroots infrastructure with a staff in New Hampshire and has also had volunteer call operations in Ohio making contacts with voters in the Granite State since mid-August.
...

Kasich, who is in fourth place in the ClearPolitics Granite State poll with 9 percent, was endorsed Friday by former Sen. Gordon J. Humphrey of New Hampshire.
“Right now we’re focusing on raising money in the campaign fund and we think we are doing a good job,” said Bob Rusbuldt, co-chair of Kasich's steering committee. “The governor is in this for the long haul and we’re going to have the resources to do that.”
...
Rusbuldt, CEO of the Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of America, and Tiberi, a former Kasich staffer, are leading the Ohio Republican's roughly 50-person steering panel. It is filled with a retinue of Washington politicos, including former Reps. Bob Walker (R-Pa.), Pete Hoekstra (R-Pa.), Dan Burton (R-Ind.), Spencer Bachus (R-Ala.), Jim Walsh (R-N.Y.) and Chris Shays (R-Conn).

At a time when Republicans say that they value new ideas over experience, does it really help Kasich that so many of his key backers are old Washington insiders?

Ages:

• Humphrey 74
• Walker 72
• Hoekstra 61
• Burton 77
• Bachus 67
• Walsh 68
• Shays 69 

The Establishment Bracket's Final Three: Bush, Rubio, Kasich

At The Washington Post, Dan Balz writes that Bush, Rubio and Kasich are vying to be the candidate of their own bracket (mainstream/establishment/somewhat-conservative/aspirational):

Rubio has long emphasized that the party needs a fresh candidate, not one tied to the past, an implicit criticism of his fellow Floridian who is part of an American political dynasty. Bush, a two-term former governor, has belittled Rubio’s experience, or lack thereof. Kasich, a two-term governor and longtime House member, has claimed that his experience and record are unmatched by any of the other candidates.

Advisers to the three anticipate more attacks ahead. “The Bush campaign is feverishly doing their opposition research on Governor Kasich and Senator Rubio,” said John Weaver, Kasich’s chief strategist. “An empire like that is not going to go quietly into the night. We’re expecting pretty sharp elbows to be thrown. We’re going to handle it head on.”

Past Republican nomination contests often have devolved into competition between a candidate from the center-right or mainstream conservative wing of the party and a candidate from the hard right or populist conservative wing. Most times, the candidate from the mainstream conservative wing becomes the nominee.

This year, the race is more scrambled because of the added factor of the apparent desire by many Republicans for an outsider or non-politician. That has elevated Trump, Carson and Fiorina and has forced the others to adapt. Rubio has been stressing that, despite being in the Senate, he’s really not of Washington.

Instead of establishment vs. tea party, one GOP strategist describes the race this time as a competition between those in the anger, or anti-Washington, lane, vs. those in the aspirational lane. Bush, Rubio and Kasich all fall more into the aspirational lane.

The State of Play

At RealClearPolitics, David Brady and Douglas Rivers analyze polls about Trump and the GOP nomination race, reaching these conclusions:

• First, that most of his support comes from candidates already in the race and not from newly inspired voters. 
• Second, his campaign drew from both the front-runners and the second-tier candidates and hurt Ted Cruz among the front-runners and Rick Perry among the second-tier candidates the most.
• Third, his support comes from across the full range of Republican identifiers but is slightly higher among those who are less well educated, earn less than $50,000 annually and are slightly older.
• Fourth, Tea Party respondents supported Trump at slightly lower levels than the totals for Cruz and Fiorina but higher than for the rest of the field.
• Fifth, if his candidacy falters or he quits the race, no single candidate benefits in more than the low double digits, and those he hurt the most—Cruz and Perry—probably do not make up their losses, notwithstanding Cruz’s machinations

Charles Cook writes at National Journal:

Clearly, something pro­found is hap­pen­ing in the usu­ally staid and or­derly party. Don­ald Trump is in first place not only in Iowa and New Hamp­shire, but in na­tion­al polling as well, av­er­aging more than a quarter of the vote. Ben Car­son, the re­tired neur­o­lo­gist, is now in second place in Iowa and na­tion­wide, and in a stat­ist­ic­al tie in New Hamp­shire with Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a more tra­di­tion­al can­did­ate. That Jeb Bush is av­er­aging single-di­git per­form­ances in both cru­cial states and na­tion­ally is just as per­plex­ing.

Should we see this as a re­bel­lion against ca­reer politi­cians and the GOP es­tab­lish­ment? Or, is roughly 40 per­cent of the GOP elect­or­ate throw­ing a tem­per tan­trum? The an­swer is: both.

...
Not all Re­pub­lic­ans are rebels, however. Na­tion­ally, al­most 60 per­cent of Re­pub­lic­ans are still the philo­soph­ic­al and styl­ist­ic des­cend­ants of the party that pro­duced Pres­id­ents Eis­en­hower, Nix­on, Re­agan, and both Bushes—the GOP that once ap­proved of Ger­ald Ford, Bob Dole, John Mc­Cain, and Mitt Rom­ney. Even Re­agan, not to men­tion the Bushes, would have trouble meet­ing the GOP’s new lit­mus tests.

...
Among the tra­di­tion­al Re­pub­lic­an can­did­ates, the Bush cam­paign is start­ing to air tele­vi­sion ads—and he had bet­ter hope they work. Con­ven­tion­al Re­pub­lic­an voters are still win­dow-shop­ping, but they don’t seem prone to linger be­fore Bush’s win­dow; they just keep mov­ing on. Kasich has shown signs of get­ting trac­tion, par­tic­u­larly in New Hamp­shire; he has already out­per­formed the ex­pect­a­tions that his late start would doom his cam­paign. It was Bush’s poor per­form­ance, the Kasich camp ex­plains, that drew the Ohio gov­ernor in­to the race.

Kasich and Same-Sex Marriage

Chrissie Thompson reports at The Cincinnati Inquirer:

John Kasich, who opposes gay marriage, thinks a Kentucky clerk should issue same-sex marriage licenses despite her religious beliefs.

Rowan County clerk Kim Davis is sitting in jail indefinitely after defying court orders to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. Conservatives have cheered her for standing on her personal religious beliefs, saying the government is persecuting her.

Even though Davis personally opposes same-sex marriage, she's a government employee, Kasich told ABC's This Week on Sunday.

"She's not running a church. I wouldn't force this on a church, but in terms of her responsibility, I think she has to comply," said Kasich, Ohio governor and a GOP presidential candidate. He doesn't think she should sit in jail, he said, but "I think she should follow the law."

Battles over same-sex marriage might turn young people away from Christianity, said Kasich, a Protestant.

"When we see these kind of battles going on, I get a little bit afraid that it turns people off to the idea of faith in God," he said. "I think we need to talk a lot about the do's, about humility, about helping our neighbor, about the need to live a life bigger than ourselves."

Kasich the Politician

David Weigel writes at The Washington Post:

Donald Trump derides the “losers” who have captured America’s government. Onetime front-runner Jeb Bush attacks the reality show star as insufficiently conservative. Kasich is trying something else, telling voters that, yes, he’s a politician and a good one. Four years in the Ohio Senate, 18 years in Congress, five years as governor, most of them good.

Maybe this approach will work for Kasich. But he should choose his words carefully, heeding a lesson from forty years ago.

In 1976, Senator Birch Bayh (D-IN) ran for president by openly proclaiming his skill and experience.  "I'm Birch Bayh," he said in his spots, "and I'm a politician."  The message failed badly.  On April 12, Newsweek reported:

And Bayh tried to counter this year's anti-politician sentiment by proclaiming that it would take a politician to solve the nation's problems, and that he was a good one. Somewhat lamely, his admen still say the theme was valid. But Roger Ailes, a commercial TV producer who worked on Nixon's 1968 campaign, says the Bayh strategy amounted to political suicide: "It was like going into a crowded room, announcing you have leprosy and then trying to shake hands with everyone."

It's probably good for Kasich to talk about his knowledge and experience, but he should probably avoid the p-word.

First Debate: Trump Gives Ammo to Anticorporate Populists

Last night, 10 candidates took part in a prime-time debate, while 7 were in the happy hour debate.

When Chris Wallace asked about his companies' bankruptcies, Trump inadvertently gave ammunition to the critics of corporate America.  Expect Bernie Sanders to quote these lines:

Excuse me, what am I saying? Out of hundreds of deals that I've done, hundreds, on four occasions I've taken advantage of the laws of this country, like other people. I'm not going to name their names because I'm not going to embarrass, but virtually every person that you read about on the front page of the business sections, they've used the law.

The difference is, when somebody else uses those laws, nobody writes about it. When I use it, they say, "Trump, Trump, Trump." The fact is, I built a net worth of more than $10 billion. I have a great, great company. I employ thousands of people. And I'm very proud of the job I did.

Again Chris, hundreds and hundreds of deals. Four times, I've taken advantage of the laws. And frankly, so has everybody else in my position.

Mike Allen sums up:

Marco Rubio helped himself the most. He was disappointed he didn’t get a foreign-policy question, where he was primed to shine. But he had several adult moments, including our fave: “[I]f this election is a resume competition, then Hillary Clinton’s gonna be the next president, because she’s been in office and in government longer than anybody else running here tonight. .. This election better be about the future, not the past. ... If I’m our nominee, we will be the party of the future.”

John Kasich and Carly Fiorina bask in pundit love. The Trump bubble will burst: His “F” answer to Megyn Kelly’s clever question put him on the wrong side of women.
Reporters thought Jeb was jittery, flat. His camp says the mission was to appear “presidential, aspirational. Conservative Record + Optimistic Vision. Took tough Qs that could’ve bogged down (Common Core, Trump) and instead hit his conservative record (that lots of people don’t know about) and an optimistic vision for how the country can grow economically.”
...
EXCLUSIVE – FRANK LUNTZ narrative from his dial-group results in Cleveland last night: “[W]e hosted 23 Republican voters, 20 of whom were undecided ... Being Donald Trump made him the front-runner, but tonight his act wore thin. He lowered the level of political discourse, and participants were really disappointed. The theme from our session: Dump Trump. ... Bush ... finished at the back of the pack in almost every question we asked. ... His dial scores were flat, and participants felt he lacked the passion they want ...

“Who showed they are best prepared to be president on day one? Ted Cruz ... scored well ... because of ... intelligence and courage. ... Which candidate would you choose to have a beer with? Marco Rubio ... [W]omen ... universally found him ‘attractive.’ ... Was there a candidate you would want to teach your kids’ junior high civics class? Ted Cruz. ... Which candidate would you hire to run your company? Donald Trump. ... Who was in the minors, but earned a call to the majors? Carly Fiorina.” Frank’s 2-pager http://bit.ly/1Usof5d

Getting Away with Gaffes

Last night, 14 of the 17 GOP candidates took part in a New Hampshire candidate forum airing on C-SPAN. It illustrates an important point about early campaign events: second-tier candidates can get away with gaffes that would stir a lot of controversy if he or she were in the top tier. John Kasich said that "law-abiding, God-fearing" undocumented immigrants should be able to stay in the country. A literal reading of that statement suggests that atheist immigrants would be out of luck. That's probably not what he meant, and it's unlikely that many people will obsess about it. But if Bush had made such a comment, social media would be lighting up.

Something similar happened four years ago, before Gingrich had his first surge. In a Las Vegas debate, he said: "And I, frankly, would be really worried if somebody assured me that nothing in their faith would affect their judgments, because then I'd wonder, where's your judgment -- how can you have judgment if you have no faith? And how can I trust you with power if you don't pray?" Even though he was suggesting a religious test for office, few people paid attention at the time.  

Kasich's Temper

Alex Isenstadt reports at Politico:

Kasich’s temper has made it harder to endear himself to the GOP’s wealthy benefactors. Last year, he traveled to Southern California to appear on a panel at a conference sponsored by the Republican mega-donors Charles and David Koch. At one point, according to accounts provided by two sources present, Randy Kendrick, a major contributor and the wife of Ken Kendrick, the owner of the Arizona Diamondbacks, rose to say she disagreed with Kasich’s decision to expand Medicaid coverage, and questioned why he’d expressed the view it was what God wanted.

The governor’s response was fiery. “I don’t know about you, lady,” he said as he pointed at Kendrick, his voice rising. “But when I get to the pearly gates, I’m going to have an answer for what I’ve done for the poor.”

The exchange left many stunned. About 20 audience members walked out of the room, and two governors also on the panel, Nikki Haley of South Carolina and Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, told Kasich they disagreed with him. The Ohio governor has not been invited back to a Koch seminar — opportunities for presidential aspirants to mingle with the party’s rich and powerful — in the months since.

In October, Connie Schultz wrote at Politico:

Nuance is not always Kasich’s strong suit. Days after he was elected, Kasich gathered statehouse lobbyists and made it clear where he stood. Either they were with him, or they were expendable. “If you’re not on the bus, we’ll run over you with the bus,” he said. “And I’m not kidding.”

In a public speech to the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency five weeks after he took the oath as governor, Kasich launched a tirade against a state trooper who had pulled him over for "approaching a public safety vehicle with lights displayed" on a state route. He paid the $85, but he was fuming about it. “Have you ever been stopped by a police officer that’s an idiot?” Kasich asked the audience. He then proceeded to use the incident to inveigh against government overreach. “We just can’t act that way. What people resent are people who are in the government who don’t treat the client with respect.”
After a video of Kasich’s comments went public, he apologized to the state trooper in a private meeting.

McLean, who is also the former director of the Women’s Political Caucus, says this illustrates a larger problem for Kasich. “He doesn’t like to negotiate or compromise. He doesn’t like to be challenged. ... With women voters, in particular, an angry man probably isn’t going to work for them.” (No less than Arizona Sen. John McCain once said that Kasich has a "hair-trigger temper.")

Four GOP Brackets

Charles Cook identifies four brackets in the GOP nomination contest:

First there is the establishment bracket, with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and possibly former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney competing for that semifinal slot. Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina would likely fit into this group. GOP nominees traditionally come from this bracket.

Then there is the conservative governor/former governor slot—with, potentially, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker competing, all seeking to be non-Washington and non-Congress candidates, but each with more conservative, or at least better conservative, credentials than Bush, Christie, or Romney. In this anti-Washington environment, being able to say that you effectively governed, in contrast with Congress and Washington, certainly has some advantages among the non-purist conservatives.

In the third bracket are the more identifiably tea-party candidates, principally Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky, but also former Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, possibly former 2008 vice presidential nominee and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and even real-estate mogul Donald Trump (though both Palin and Trump are unlikely to make it past the first lap if they end up entering at all). This bracket is for the "mad as hell and not going to take it anymore" conservatives.

Finally, there is the social, cultural, and religious conservative bracket, made up primarily of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, tapping into the same feelings as the third group but with a distinctly moral dimension.

2016: Nobody Can Win

It seems that every potential 2016 presidential candidate has at least one electability problem.  Some have more than one.

Hillary Clinton is tied to the Obama administration's foreign policy and the Clinton administration's scandals.  Born October 26, 1947, she would be 69 years old on Election Day, which would make her the second-oldest president after Ronald Reagan.

Elizabeth Warren, born June 22, 1949, is almost as old as Clinton. She has won only one election, in liberal Massachusetts, and her progressive politics probably would not travel well in a general election. (Think Dukakis and Kerry.) The false claims of Cherokee heritage won't help, either.

Jeb Bush is named Bush.  He also supports Common Core.

Paul Ryan proved in 2012 that he is very bright but uninspiring on the campaign trail.  Vice presidential candidates seldom help their tickets, and he was no exception:  the Republicans lost his home state of Wisconsin.  And as chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, he has a real job that would severely limit his campaign time.

Mike Huckabee is well-liked.  He also tends to make the kind of gaffes that would sink candidates who reach the top tier.

Chris Christie flunked his 2012 vice presidential vetting. Bridgegate might not bring him down, but the other stuff could.  Also, his temper -- like Warren's liberalism -- will not appeal outside the Northeast.

Rand Paul has shown terrible judgment in associating both with neo-Confederates and Al Sharpton.

Marco Rubio has alienated much of the GOP base over the issue of immigration. And if Bush gets in, much of his anticipated Florida money will disappear.

Scott Walker won reelection in 2014 despite a campaign finance scandal.  In a presidential race, however, the relevant documents will be subject to scrutiny by a large cadre of more-skillful and better-equipped opposition researchers. The email trove will be like a natural gas well that reopens when a new technology becomes available.  Call it political fracking.

Ted Cruz has alienated colleagues in the party with counterproductive legislative tactics.  Many Republican officials hate him, and they will undercut him in ways both obvious and subtle.

Bobby Jindal is still best-known for his disastrous State of the Union response.  He is unpopular back home in Louisiana.

Rick Perry is still best-known for "Oops."  Perhaps it will lower expectations for him. But another problem is that he will no longer be governor of Texas, and will not be able to gather "access money."

John Kasich expanded Medicaid, which might not hurt him in a general election but would cost him conservative support in GOP primaries.  And if Christie and Bush get in the race, it is hard to see that there will be many votes left in the establishment bracket

Dr. Ben Carson is a world-class surgeon but has never held office or run a large organization.  Every president has had one of those two experiences.  His oratory may give him an early boost, but at some point, his lack of qualifications will kick in.

Carly Fiorina, like Dr. Carson, has never won an election, but she has run an organization (HP).  That's her problem:  HP sacked her for poor performance, and her stewardship opens her up to the kind of "callous clueless rich person" attack that hurt Romney.  And at least Romney could make a plausible case that he was successful at Bain.

New Ideas, Entitlements, Medicaid, and GOP Governors

How can the GOP offset the growth of the Hispanic vote?  At The National Interest, Henry Olsen points to working-class whites in industrial states.  In a variation of "new ideas" Republicanism, he suggests that the GOP drop its reflexive opposition to all entitlement programs.

Data compiled by political scientist Larry Bartels show that the president’s support among non-college-educated whites came largely from the working and lower-middle classes, exactly the people most affected by the Great Recession and the wage pressures of the preceding decade. Bartels’s analysis shows that non-Southern whites making less than about $45,000 a year voted for the president in 2012, and those making between $45,000 and $62,500 gave him more than 45 percent of their votes. Conservative analysts may decry the dependency safety-net programs engender, but clearly those voters who have struggled for decades were not so concerned.

These facts have not gone unnoticed by these states’ Republican governors. Every GOP governor in these states except Wisconsin’s Scott Walker has either expanded Medicaid or endorsed expansion, and even Walker reformed his state’s generous Medicaid program to expand insurance coverage by nearly one hundred thousand people without taking new federal money. Ohio governor John Kasich [see this comparison to Kemp] was so intent on expanding Medicaid prior to his 2014 reelection vote that he used his appointees to an obscure state board to get around opposition from Republicans in his state legislature to expand the program. The nation’s two Hispanic Republican governors, Nevada’s Brian Sandoval and New Mexico’s Susana Martinez, also took leading roles in establishing their state’s exchanges pursuant to Obamacare. Republican governors in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two other potential swing states that lean slightly Democratic, also endorsed Medicaid expansion.

INDIANA REPUBLICAN governor Mike Pence’s 2014 announcement that he, too, would seek to expand Medicaid further shows how strong the political pressure is. Pence is so conservative that as a congressman he was one of just twenty-one GOP stalwarts not to vote for President Bush’s bill creating prescription-drug coverage for seniors. Yet Indiana is another state politically dominated by whites without college degrees. This group comprised 56 percent of the 2008 electorate, the highest percentage of any midwestern state. While this group also has a significantly larger evangelical Christian portion than elsewhere in the Midwest, Pence has surely recognized that the same economic pressures that make Medicaid expansion tempting for low-income whites elsewhere apply to Hoosiers as well.

Pence’s proposal is slightly different, and as such offers a lens through which one can view the options conservatives have in crafting an original response to these pressures. The largely hostile reception his idea has met among conservative intellectuals, however, shows that the “just say no” impetus remains strong on the right.

Christie and Walker

David Umhoefer writes at The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel:

Will Gov. Scott Walker zoom past New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on his motorcycle thanks to the developing scandal related to creation of traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge?
So says John Hayward at Human Events.

"One of the little preliminary races that pundits have been placing some early bets on, years out from the 2016 presidential election, is whether the Establishment Guy in the GOP primary would be Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, or New Jersey Governor Chris Christie," Hayward blogged. "The race may just have been settled..."

Not so fast, counters Peter Grier, Washington editor at the Christian Science Monitor.

"Does it show that Christie is a bully who at the least created an atmosphere where such vindictiveness could flourish? His opponents think that already, and in “Bridge-ghazi” will see confirmation of their view," writes Grier. "Is he a take-charge guy who is willing to break a little china to get stuff done? There are probably lots of Republican primary voters who do not believe that jamming up New York City’s intake routes is a bad thing."

Back in November, John Dickerson wrote in Slate that if governors have an edge over senators, Walker would be Christie's main competition.

That narrows the field down to the pool of leading current and former Republican governors: Jeb Bush, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Rick Perry, and Walker. All of those men have something to recommend them, but "no one checks as many boxes as Walker does," as an Iowa GOP strategist puts it. Walker has near hero status in the grassroots for taking on Wisconsin’s public sector unions. Cruz talks about taking stands on principle, but he lost his fight. Walker took a stand, was targeted by the full force of the Democratic machine, and stayed alive. He won a recall election with a larger margin than his original victory. He raised $30 million for that race, so he knows how to tap wealthy donors. Social conservatives also consider him one of their own for his pro-life views and his pedigree: His father was a Baptist minister.

Jindal and Perry have supporters in conservative circles, but Jindal can't match Walker's union-slaying story and Perry's accomplishments won't help him overcome the memories of his disastrous 2012 run. If the incentive is to pick a Christie alternative who can survive, it also helps if the candidate comes from a battleground state—even better if they come from a swing state in the Midwest. Walker also brings helpful connections to Iowa, that early caucus state. Besides governing in nearby Wisconsin, Walker grew up in Iowa. Right now GOP operatives describe the competition in the Hawkeye State as one between Rand Paul (whose forces control the state party) and Sen. Ted Cruz (who excites the base).

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush hails from a swing state, but he himself has admitted that he is out of step with the Republican Party on immigration. He may still be noodling a run, but he could easily be painted as a GOP moderate—and that space is already occupied by Christie. That leaves just John Kasich of Ohio. Like Walker, Kasich also took on the unions, but he lost. In the eyes of conservatives, he did something else that may be unpardonable: He took federal Medicaid money as a part of the Affordable Care Act. That robs Kasich of an issue he could have used to distinguish himself from Christie (who also took Medicaid money) and, say some conservatives, dismantles his ability to argue for smaller spending in Washington. Walker, on the other hand, refused the Medicaid money, and is launching his own state solution, which is receiving praise from conservatives.

The Twitter Primary

At The Washington Examiner, Hugh Hewitt writes about the Twitter power of potential GOP presidential candidates.

We won't know until three years from now what percentage of Twitter followings as of Dec. 13 turned into actual campaign activists or contributors, but there is no reason not to think that the "Twitter followers" number doesn't mean something given the importance the MSM talking heads pay to their own running totals. These totals are at least a measure of the potential candidates' online efforts.

Here's the Twitterific facts on the Twitter primary as of that day. Where the potential candidate has more than one account, I used the higher number of the two (or three). I have also rounded to the thousand. Their relative rank in "Twitter power" follows their actual number of "followers."

— Bolton: 108,000; 10
— Bush: 101,000; 11
— Christie: 420,000; 3
— Cruz: 234,000; 6
— Huckabee: 318,000; 5
— Jindal: 143,000; 9
— Kasich: 56,000; 13
— King: 17,000; 16
— Paul: 351,000; 4
— Perry: 210,000; 8
— Rubio: 475,000; 2
— Ryan: 561,000; 1
— Santorum: 222,000; 7
— Snyder: 30,000; 14
— Thune: 27,000; 15
— Walker: 73,000; 12