Caution about the Democrats' Leftward Drift

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the Sanders candidacy and the leftward drift of the Democratic Party.

At Brookings, Elaine Kamarck and Alexander Podkul urge caution about overstating the Democrats' leftward drift.

For every stunning progressive upset—such as the victories of Ayanna Presley in her Massachusetts congressional primary or Andrew Gillum in the Florida gubernatorial primary—there are victories of more conventional Democratic candidates. Gov. Andrew Cuomo easily won his re-nomination in New York, and likewise Sen. Tom Carper (DE), handily beat Our Revolution-endorsed Kerri Harris in Delaware’s U.S. Senate primary.

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As the following table reports, self-identified progressive Democrats did well. A total of 101 progressive Democrats won their primaries, which was just under 3 in 10 of all progressives. However, establishment candidates fared somewhat better. A total of 139 won their primaries, with better than 1 in 3 establishment candidates winning the Democratic nomination.

Economic Inequality and the Midterm

 In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House.  Those divides, however, are now working against him. Despite reports of robust economic growth, Trump's approval rating is sagging and Republicans are in serious danger of losing the House.  What is happening?

First, the situation is not unique.  In 2006, just before the midterm "thumpin'" that cost Republicans control of Congress, President Bush expressed confidence that the economy would save his party.  Eduardo Porter at NYT, 10/24/2006:

President Bush, in hopes of winning credit for his party’s stewardship of the economy, is spending two days this week campaigning on the theme that the economy is purring. “No question that a strong economy is going to help our candidates,” Mr. Bush said in a CNBC interview yesterday, “primarily because they have got something to run on, they can say our economy’s good because I voted for tax relief.”

But Republican candidates do not seem to be getting any traction from the glowing economic statistics with midterm elections just two weeks away.

The economy is virtually nowhere to be found among the campaign ads of embattled Republican incumbents fighting to hold onto their House or Senate seats. Nor is it showing up as a strong weapon in the arsenal of Republican governors defending their jobs from Democrats.

“I don’t know of another election cycle in which the economy was so good, yet the election prospects for the incumbent party looked so bad,” said Frank Luntz, a Republican strategist. “If something goes wrong, Republicans are to blame. If something goes right, Republicans don’t get credit.”

Second, for millions of Americans, the economy is not so great. Patricia Cohen at NYT:

As new research illustrates, two groups in particular have stalled: whites without a college degree, and blacks and Hispanics with one. Both are being far outpaced by college-educated whites.

“America has been a story of getting ahead, of progress,” said Morris P. Fiorina, a political scientist at Stanford University. “There’s been no story of progress — for them.”

The findings, part of a study on the demographics of wealth between 1989 and 2016 from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, show significant advances in education and earnings among white, black and Hispanic Americans over that period. A Census Bureau report this week also showed continued income gains last year. But the study highlights the growing importance of relative shifts in position up or down the income ladder at a time when the economy’s riches are flowing increasingly to the wealthiest sliver.

The economic swoops and comebacks of the last three decades have chipped away at many measures of well-being. An advanced global economy has radically revalued the contributions of blue-collar labor and technological skills.

The lingering economic insecurity has fired resentments, sharpened identity politics and fueled populism on the right and left that is upending hierarchies in the Democratic and Republican Parties.

But parallels between whites who did not finish college and blacks and Hispanics who did show that “this is not clearly a race story and not clearly an education story,” said William R. Emmons, an economist at the St. Louis Fed and a co-author of its report.

David Leonhardt at NYT:

The stock market, for example, has completely recovered from the financial crisis, and then some. Stocks are now worth almost 60 percent more than when the crisis began in 2007, according to a inflation-adjusted measure from Moody’s Analytics. But wealthy households own the bulk of stocks. Most Americans are much more dependent on their houses. That’s why the net worth of the median household is still about 20 percent lower than it was in early 2007. When television commentators drone on about the Dow, they’re not talking about a good measure of most people’s wealth.

The unemployment rate has also become less meaningful than it once was. In recent decades, the number of idle working-age adults has surged. They are not working, not looking for work, not going to school and not taking care of children. Many of them would like to work, but they can’t find a decent-paying job and have given up looking. They are not countedin the official unemployment rate.

Manafort Flips

 In Defying the Odds, we discuss Russian involvement in the 2016 campaign.

From the Special Counsel's office:

U.S. v. Paul J. Manafort, Jr. (1:17-cr-201, District of Columbia)

Paul J. Manafort, Jr., of Alexandria, Va., pleaded guilty today to a superseding criminal information filed today in the District of Columbia, which includes conspiracy against the United States (conspiracy to commit money laundering, tax fraud, failing to file Foreign Bank Account Reports and Violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act, and lying and misrepresenting to the Department of Justice) and conspiracy to obstruct justice (witness tampering). A status report with regard to sentencing was scheduled for Nov. 16, 2018.

• Superseding Criminal Information
• Exhibits
• Plea Agreement
• Statement of the Offense 

Former US Attorney Harry Litman at USAT:

For the president, the plea agreement from his former campaign chair is at least a huge blow and potentially disastrous. It had been widely reported that Trump believed Manafort could incriminate him and took great relief from the thought that he would keep his lips sealed.

For starters, Manafort likely knows whether Trump had advance knowledge of the June 2016 meeting set up by Donald Trump Jr. to get dirt on Hillary Clinton, which would expose the president to co-conspirator liability. Manafort likewise was at the center of the manipulation of the Republican platform to favor Russian interests in the Ukraine.

More generally, Manafort’s shamed, mumbled court confession to all Mueller’s charges further makes more untenable Trump’s histrionic shrieks of “witch hunt,” which already had been losing purchase.

Manafort’s cooperation promise also may bode ill for Roger Stone, his former business partner, on whom Mueller already has been turning the vise, and possibly Jared Kushner, who worked closely with Manafort during the campaign and now is a senior adviser to his father-in-law at the White House.

Blue Edges: D Recruitment, R Retirements

In Defying the Odds, we discuss congressional elections as well as the presidential race. 

Harry Stevens at Axios:

More Democratic congressional candidates have competed in the 2018 election cycle than either party attracted in any cycle since 1980, according to an Axios analysis of Federal Election Commission data.

Why it matters: The last time either party drew this many congressional candidates was in 2010, when Tea Party rallies and grassroots opposition to President Barack Obama brought a new generation of conservative Republicans to Congress.

By the numbers: 1,706 Democratic congressional candidates have spent or raised money during the current cycle. That breaks the previous record set in 2010, when 1,688 Republican congressional candidates registered with the FEC.

But the enthusiasm gap between parties was far larger in 2010. During that cycle, only 1,136 Democratic candidates ran for Congress, compared to 1,550 GOP candidates this time around.

The bottom line: The number of candidates in itself doesn't guarantee election victories. But it's one more sign of how motivated Democrats are this year, and that could lead to victories if it translates into high Democratic voter turnout.

Elena Schneider at Politico:

A glut of GOP retirements has House Republicans defending a record number of open seats this fall — further fueling the odds of a Democratic takeover.

Of the 44 districts left open by incumbents who are retiring, resigning or seeking higher office, Democrats are targeting almost half of them. They need to gain 23 seats to win the House majority.

The open seats may be an overlooked factor in an election season dominated by GOP angst over a potential voter backlash against President Donald Trump. Recent history explains why Republicans are so concerned: In the past six midterm elections, the president’s party has not retained a single open seat he failed to carry two years prior, according to an analysis by the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman.

“Retirements and open seats could be our biggest problem right now,” said Brian Walsh, a Republican consultant who leads the pro-Trump outside group America First, which will spend on a handful of House races in 2018. “New candidates have to fight their way through a primary and don’t have the same fundraising ability and built-in name recognition [as incumbents]. That’s a huge challenge.”

Trump Lies About Puerto Rico

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional politics as well as the presidential race.

After Hurricane Maria last year, a number of Puerto Ricans moved to Florida, and their votes may help the Democrats.   Trump seems bent on further alienating them.

3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000...

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 13, 2018

.....This was done by the Democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when I was successfully raising Billions of Dollars to help rebuild Puerto Rico. If a person died for any reason, like old age, just add them onto the list. Bad politics. I love Puerto Rico!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 13, 2018

From the Democratic gubernatorial nominee:

No death is partisan and our brothers and sisters in Puerto Rico deserved better from @realDonaldTrump before, during, and after the hurricane.

— Andrew Gillum (@AndrewGillum) September 13, 2018

On July 12, Frances Robles reported at NYT:

The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s plans for a crisis in Puerto Rico were based on a focused disaster like a tsunami, not a major hurricane devastating the whole island. The agency vastly underestimated how much food and fresh water it would need, and how hard it would be to get additional supplies to the island.

And when the killer storm did come, FEMA’s warehouse in Puerto Rico was nearly empty, its contents rushed to aid the United States Virgin Islands, which were hammered by another storm two weeks before. There was not a single tarpaulin or cot left in stock.

Those and other shortcomings are detailed in a FEMA report assessing the agency’s response to the 2017 storm season, when three major hurricanes slammed the United States in quick succession, leaving FEMA struggling to deliver food and water quickly to storm victims in Puerto Rico.

The after-action report describes an initially chaotic and disorganized relief effort on the island that was plagued with logistical problems and stretched into the longest feeding mission in the agency’s history.

BREAKING: What may be millions of water bottles. meant for victims of Hurricane Maria, have been sitting on a runway in Ceiba, Puerto Rico, since last year, according to @FEMA, which confirmed the news to me, late tonight, after pictures, posted today on social media, went viral. pic.twitter.com/jidGJAvCyJ

— David Begnaud (@DavidBegnaud) September 12, 2018

Rohrabacher and Russia: Parody Ad

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional politics as well as the presidential race. We also discuss Russian involvement in the 2016 campaign 

From NBC:

A Democratic PAC focused on flipping Republican-held House seats in California is out with a provocative new digital ad that seeks to exploit Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher’s ties to Russia.

The new spot from Red to Blue California, obtained by NBC News before its Tuesday release, is styled to look like a message from the Russian government endorsing Rohrabacher.

In it, photos of Rohrabacher and Russian President Vladimir Putin are shown in front of a Russian flag as a narrator thanks Rohrabacher. One version of the ad is in English, while the other is in Russian with English subtitles.

“The Russian Federation is proud to endorse Dana Rohrabacher for Congress, You are true Russian hero. Thank you, Dana Rohrabacher, for standing with Putin and Russia,” the narrator says.

Mr. Madison's Midterm

 In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race.

Quinnipiac:

American voters back Democratic candidates over Republicans 52 – 38 percent in races for the U.S. House of Representatives nationwide, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

Independent voters back Democrats over Republicans 50 – 35 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds.

Democrats lead by a narrow 48 – 42 percent among men and by a wide 55 – 35 percent among women. White voters are divided as 48 percent go Republican and 45 percent go Democratic. Democrats lead 84 – 7 percent among black voters and 64 – 22 percent  mong Hispanic voters.

American voters disapprove 72 – 18 percent of the job the U.S. Congress is doing. There is no listed party, gender, education, age or racial group which approves of Congress.

Congress should be more of a check on President Donald Trump, voters say 58 – 27 percent. Republicans say 62 – 11 percent that Congress is doing enough to check the  resident, the only listed group to feel that way.

But voters say 56 – 36 percent they would not like to see Congress begin impeachment proceedings against President Trump.

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American voters trust the news media more than President Trump 54 – 30 percent to tell the truth about important issues. Republicans trust Trump more than the media 72 – 12 percent, the only group that trusts Trump more. White voters with no college degree are divided as 45 percent trust Trump more and 43 percent trust the media more.