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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Thursday, April 4, 2013

Presidential Results by Congressional District

Clark Bensen of Polidata writes:
As the president was reelected in 2012, the election results indicated a reduction in the overall support for President Obama, even though areas of the relative strengths for both major parties remained about the same. The reduction of President Obama’s overall percentage of the vote from 53.7 in 2008 to 52.0 in 2012 also resulted in a majority of districts voting for Romney.
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While this 226 to 209 break is quite near the breaks for 2000 (Bush 228 to Gore 208) and for 1960 (Kennedy 204 to Nixon 227), this represents the first time since 1960 that the winner of the election did not win the popular vote in a majority of the congressional districts. Also, the number of ‘turnover’ or ‘split’ districts has hit a low point compared to recent elections at 26: 17 Republicans in the House are in districts carried by Obama and 9 Democrats are in districts carried by Romney.
Of course, there were two other factors at play in how many congressional districts were carried, or ‘won’, by each nominee: a) the capture of the U.S. House by the Republicans in the 2010 elections; and b) the redistricting cycle following the 2010 census. 
Polidata reports presidential results by congressional district:

Factor: 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
[A] Districts won by Dem Pres 256 for Clinton 280 for Clinton 207 for Gore 180 for Kerry 242 for Obama 209 for Obama
[B] Districts won by GOP Pres 179 for George H.W. Bush 155 for Dole 228 for George W. Bush 255 for George W. Bush 193 for McCain 226 for Romney
[C] GOP Districts won by Dem Pres 50 for Clinton 91 for Clinton 40 for Gore 18 for Kerry 34 for Obama 17 for Obama
[D] Dem Districts won by GOP Pres 53 for George H.W. Bush 19 for Dole 46 for George W. Bush 41 for George W. Bush 49 for McCain 9 for Romney
[E] Net for National Winner -2 for Clinton +73 for Clinton +7 for Bush +23 for Bush -15 for Obama +8 for Obama
[F] Most Votes Cast for President 363,716 317,121 369,844 418,511 457,876 440,090
[G] Fewest Votes Cast for President 53,398 61,011 76,762 107,825 108,507 114,901
[H] Highest % for Dem Pres 87.0% for Clinton 93.5% for Clinton 92.9% for Gore 89.7% for Kerry 94.8% for Obama 96.7% for Obama
[I] Highest % for GOP Pres 63.5% for George H.W. Bush 67.4% for Dole 79.0% for George W. Bush 78.0% for George W. Bush 76.7% for McCain 80.2% for Romney
[J] Highest % for Independents 33.2% for Perot 16.0% for Perot 13.4% for "Others" N/A for "Others" 3.4% for "Others" 5.2% for "Others"
[K] Average % for Dem Pres 44.1% for Clinton 50.3% for Clinton 49.6% for Gore 49.0% for Kerry 53.7% for Obama 51.6% for Obama
[L] Average % for GOP Pres 37.4% for George H.W. Bush 40.0% for Dole 46.8% for George W. Bush 50.0% for George W. Bush 44.9% for McCain 46.8% for Romney
[M] Average % for Ind Pres 18.5% for Perot 8.2% for Perot 3.5% for "Others" 0.7% for "Others" 1.4% for "Others" 1.6% for "Others"