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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

The Beginning of the D End

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well under way.

Mike Allen at Axios:
  • Joe Biden decisively won four more states — Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi and Idaho — and party elders said Bernie Sanders should bow to the inevitable.
...
  • Sanders didn't comment on the results, and Biden began to pivot to the general election, promising remarks on the coronavirus later this week, Axios' Alexi McCammond and Margaret Talev write.
  • Biden thanked Sanders — and Sanders' supporters — for their "tireless energy" and "passion."
  • Biden invited new backers, saying, "We need you, we want you and there's a place in our campaign for each of you."
  • What's next: Biden is poised to dominate the March 17 contests that include Florida, the nation's third most-populous state.
  • Coronavirus fears have begun to halt the sort of large rallies that were staples of Sanders' campaign.
  • Michigan, where Biden won 53% to 37%, was a huge loss for Sanders that his campaign worked hard to avoid.
  • He escalated attacks against Biden — both on his record and the idea that he is the "establishment" — and some of his supporters even pushed #WheresBiden on Twitter.
AP gives Biden an 823-663 lead in delegates.  Proportional allocation means that it would be very, vary hard for Sanders to catch up at this point. Even if Sanders wins a big state, Biden can match the net delegate gain by routing Sanders in a smaller state.  For instance, Sanders has a net lead of 36 delegates in California, but Alabama cancels it out by giving Biden an equal net lead.  And as California's long vote count continues, Biden's vote share in the state is creeping up, meaning that he could pick up a few more delegates there.