Independent Senate Candidates

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Anna Griffin at NYT:

During his brief time in the Idaho House of Representatives, Todd Achilles often stopped to admire a photograph from the state’s 1899 legislative session, and not just because some of the turn-of-the-century hairstyles and beards were “wild,” he said.

In the photo were lawmakers from four distinct parties, along with a handful of unaffiliated candidates.

“That was a period just like now,” Mr. Achilles said. “People were fed up with the party system and looking for something different.”

Today, he’s part of an effort to bring that same kind of something different to Idaho and other parts of the West. Mr. Achilles, an unaffiliated candidate for U.S. Senate, is among a wave of independent challengers to entrenched Republican incumbents or heirs apparent in red states.

In Idaho, where unaffiliated voters outnumber Democrats 2 to 1, Mr. Achilles is the more prominent and moneyed of two independents challenging the incumbent, Jim Risch. Independents also are running for Idaho governor, both of the state’s U.S. House seats and 12 state legislative seats.

Next door in Montana, another independent, Seth Bodnar, is running for the Senate as an independent, as is Dan Osborn in Nebraska and Brian Bengs in South Dakota. Another, Bill Hill, is running for Alaska’s lone House seat. All those candidacies say a lot about the state of the Democratic Party west of the Mississippi, excluding what’s known, affectionately or not, as “the left coast” — California, Oregon and Washington.

Todd Achilles

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. Claremont McKenna College alum Todd Achilles is running for the Senate.

Sarah Cutler at The Idaho Statesman:

 Todd Achilles is no longer an Idaho state legislator, and he’s no longer a Democrat. Instead, he’s an independent, now challenging a longtime Idaho Republican senator for his seat in Congress.. Achilles, 58, weighed the decision to run against U.S. Sen. Jim Risch for a long time, spurred by frustration with the state of the economy and the dysfunction of the two-party system, he told the Idaho Statesman.

Idaho’s Republican congressional delegates, including Risch, in recent months have faced public outcry over some of President Donald Trump’s policies, including proposals backed by Trump to sell public lands in Idaho for development. Risch has called on lawmakers to reject the proposal — though in April, he voted to reject a budget amendment that would have banned the government from reducing the federal deficit using proceeds from the sale of public lands. “Everybody’s frustrated by the debt, deficits and dysfunction in Washington, DC,” he said. “Too many people are struggling. Their wages are low. They’re having to get health care from Medicaid programs. The whole system is broken.”

Republicans Who Aren't Helping Their Cause

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.

Allan Smith at NBC:

Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., repeatedly interrupted and interjected during President Joe Biden's State of the Union address Tuesday night.

Greene was heard grumbling through the entire part of Biden's speech about Covid policy before she shouted a remark about women's sports when Biden mentioned new laws targeting transgender Americans and their families.

Boebert and Greene tried to start a "build the wall" chant — a reference to former President Donald Trump's calls to construct a wall across the U.S. southern border — when Biden referred to securing the border and reforming immigration law.

But the moment that stood out most was when Boebert shouted "13 of them" — referring to the 13 U.S. service members who died in an attack in Afghanistan during the U.S. withdrawal last year — when Biden discussed battlefield conditions that may contribute to veterans' developing cancers "that would put them in a flag-draped coffin."

Boebert's remark came just before Biden mentioned that one such veteran was his son Beau Biden, who served in Iraq and died of brain cancer in 2015.

Her remark prompted some boos from fellow lawmakers.

Jonathan Swan and Andrew Solender at Axios:

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has publicly swatted down a controversial tax proposal pitched by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, in an unusual airing of private tensions between the two senior Republicans.

Driving the news: Standing before a crowd of reporters at the Capitol, Tuesday afternoon, McConnell sentenced the Scott plan to death.

• "We will not have as part of our agenda a bill that raises taxes on half the American people and sunsets Social Security and Medicare within five years," McConnell said.
• "That will not be part of the Republican Senate Majority agenda. We will focus instead on what the American people are concerned about: inflation, energy, defense, the border and crime."

Behind the scenes: Scott infuriated McConnell and other top Republicans with his recent decision to release a policy agenda ahead of the midterms. The agenda, dubbed Scott's 11-point plan to "rescue America," contained controversial provisions that the Democrats are already turning into attack ads.

• The statement that put Republicans most on edge raised the prospect of new taxes on the poorest Americans: "All Americans should pay some income tax to have skin in the game, even if a small amount. Currently over half of Americans pay no income tax."

 

Looks like it took the Idaho GOP 3 days to decides that racism is bad after Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin gave speech to racists... https://t.co/88yCcT0IlS

— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast)

Looks like it took the Idaho GOP 3 days to decides that racism is bad after Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin gave speech to racists... https://t.co/88yCcT0IlS

— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) March 1, 2022

The Arizona Senate, in a bipartisan vote, has censured a Republican lawmaker for calling for violence against her political opponents, saying state Sen. Wendy Rogers "has damaged the reputation of the Arizona State Senate by her actions." https://t.co/sN5xhPzGJD

— NPR (@NPR) March 2, 2022

More on Rogers and other sickos here.

The Beginning of the D End

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well under way.

Mike Allen at Axios:

• Joe Biden decisively won four more states — Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi and Idaho — and party elders said Bernie Sanders should bow to the inevitable.

...

• Sanders didn't comment on the results, and Biden began to pivot to the general election, promising remarks on the coronavirus later this week, Axios' Alexi McCammond and Margaret Talev write.
• Biden thanked Sanders — and Sanders' supporters — for their "tireless energy" and "passion."
• Biden invited new backers, saying, "We need you, we want you and there's a place in our campaign for each of you."
• What's next: Biden is poised to dominate the March 17 contests that include Florida, the nation's third most-populous state.
• Coronavirus fears have begun to halt the sort of large rallies that were staples of Sanders' campaign.
• Michigan, where Biden won 53% to 37%, was a huge loss for Sanders that his campaign worked hard to avoid.
• He escalated attacks against Biden — both on his record and the idea that he is the "establishment" — and some of his supporters even pushed #WheresBiden on Twitter.

AP gives Biden an 823-663 lead in delegates.  Proportional allocation means that it would be very, vary hard for Sanders to catch up at this point. Even if Sanders wins a big state, Biden can match the net delegate gain by routing Sanders in a smaller state.  For instance, Sanders has a net lead of 36 delegates in California, but Alabama cancels it out by giving Biden an equal net lead.  And as California's long vote count continues, Biden's vote share in the state is creeping up, meaning that he could pick up a few more delegates there.

Idaho 1

In Epic Journey, we discuss the Democrats' success in capturing some heavily Republican House districts. One of our examples (p. 180) is the First District of Idaho, where Walt Minnick beat freshman Republican Bill Sali. CQ Politics reports that Republicans will have to work very hard to get the seat back:

[Minnick's] tireless constituent outreach, low-key, non-ideological demeanor and centrist voting record has earned plaudits from traditionally Republican-leaning interest groups. “People are very comfortable with him and his views,” said John Thompson, Idaho Farm Bureau Federation spokesman. “I think he’s doing what he knows he needs to do get re-elected.”