Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses the impact of social issues. It also discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall. At this point, a Newsom defeat would be a huge upset.
52.48% of returned ballots in California right now are from registered Democrats.— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) September 12, 2021
This is HIGHER than 52.36% at an equivalent point of the 2020 election cycle.
The CA recall electorate is shaping up to be pretty similar to the 2020 presidential election electorate.
The bottom line: a strong Republican turnout advantage is *not* materializing if we look at returned ballots data and compare it to 2020.— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) September 12, 2021
Without this, the recall needs to win over a HUGE percentage of Biden voters to pass - the polls do NOT suggest this is happening either.