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War and economic woes will hurt the GOP in November. The only question is how much.
The big picture: Your grocery store is fed by a vast global supply chain, and pressures are building all along it.The Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars have driven up diesel prices, making it more expensive to operate farm equipment for harvesting and to truck food from suppliers to stores.
The war in Iran has also disrupted fertilizer supply and price, as a large share of the world's fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Corn and wheat prices are surging, this week hitting their highest level in three years. Bad weather has hit corn crop yields, and the Russia-Ukraine war has roiled wheat exports.
Friction point: Wheat's a key ingredient in pantry staples and corn is a major animal feed, so as they go up, so can meat, dairy and eggs.
The intrigue: Don't assume those soaring commodity prices are a bonanza for farmers, either.They're still getting squeezed by all the other crises. Even the president of the National Corn Growers Association told Axios Future of Energy author Ben Geman that he himself wouldn't be profitable this year.
Add all these pressures to the list of already inflated food items:Instant coffee is up 15.8% year-over-year; tomatoes, 12.8%; beef roasts, 13.5%; apples, 11.1%.
In the latest Economist/YouGov poll, about three-quarters of people said grocery prices are still rising where they live.
Consumer sentiment among Republicans and independents is “starting to fade” ahead of the midterm elections, The Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson told Semafor.
The Conference Board said last week that its overall consumer confidence index had dropped to its lowest level since January. Economists had predicted it would remain higher.
“There’s just a general shift of downward optimism,” Peterson said on the sidelines of the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual economic policy symposium, pointing to expectations that inflation and interest rates will remain elevated.
“Democrats are the least optimistic, but I’ve noticed that more recently the independents are moving with Republicans” in a negative direction, she continued. Consumers have been citing issues like “oil and gas prices, food, and also war and conflict” on surveys.
