Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.
With primary season in the United States now over, control of the House of Representatives is still very much up for grabs. But before a single general-election vote has been tallied, 74 House members are already heading out the door – more than before any general election since 1992.
Near-record number of House members already on their way out the door
Number of House members who lost or gave up their seats
As of now, 42 Republicans and 32 Democrats won’t be returning to the House next year. That’s because they ran or are running for some other office instead; failed to win their primaries; resigned and haven’t been replaced via special election; or simply decided to retire from the House.
In 1992, 86 members were on their way out before the general election – more than in any election since. That election year was the first after House districts were redrawn following the 1990 census, which on its own created churn as states gained or lost seats and many incumbents found themselves in unfamiliar territory. In addition, the House banking scandal fueled widespread public outrage. In the end, 110 members either gave up or lost their seats, including 24 losses in the general election.About this research
This Pew Research Center analysis looks at how many U.S. House members have lost or given up their seats during primary season and how that compares with previous election cycles.
We looked at the outcomes of every individual House race for each election year since 1992 (the modern record for House turnover). For each year, we determined whether each incumbent sought reelection; ran for some other office instead; won or lost their primary; and won or lost the general election.
We treated representatives elected in special elections before the general election the same as other incumbents. We counted House members who resigned, died, or were expelled and whose seats had not been filled by special election before the general election as non-returning incumbents.
A notable driver of this year’s departures is the 28 members who chose to run for other offices rather than seek reelection. That’s the most in any election cycle we studied. By comparison, only 15 House members ran for other offices in the record-turnover year of 1992.
