Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist. Along with war and inflation, Trump's corruption is bringing down the GOP. Some lawmakers are starting to act.
This week,
Enter the elections: The problems for the GOP are everywhere. In the battle for the Senate, once ruby-red Texas looks more in play than ever, and Florida isn't far behind. Nor is Alaska. North Carolina and Georgia look lost. Maine is problematic.The Senate GOP campaign arm is begging donors for another $8.9 million to defend Senate seats in three states that Trump won by double digits two years ago — Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
- Trump's disapproval rating hit 60.4%, the worst mark of his two terms in office, including the aftermath of the Jan. 6 riots.
- Gas prices are over $4 a gallon, diesel has hit $6.50 and no relief is in sight.
- Seven months in, the U.S. is locked in a standoff with Iran with no apparent exit strategy.
- Grocery prices are still rising year over year.
- Mortgage rates hit 7%.
- And the cost of borrowing across the economy continues to climb.
"We're having problems just getting Republican voters to respond to polls," said one national Republican pollster. "At what point do we think these guys aren't showing up at the actual polls on Election Day?"
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On the House side, the Cook Political Report moved 15 House races toward Democrats on Friday.Democrats need to net just three seats to win control of the chamber.
Republicans are now playing defense deep in red America. GOP-aligned groups are spending money in more than a half-dozen districts that Trump won by at least 15 points in 2024.
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What they're saying: "While many have long predicted that Democrats will enjoy a 'blue wave' election, I think of it more as a 'red undertow,' which will pull many Republicans under and significantly trim the margins for many others, said the Cook Report's founder and top elections handicapper Charlie Cook.That's an implied reminder that Democrats' favorability ratings aren't good; they're just better than Republicans'.
"Over the last 90 days," Cook added, "President Trump's political standing has transitioned from very unpopular to toxic and now to radioactive."
Said another consultant involved with races across the country: "Things were bad. But they started to go worse recently and if it keeps on this track, it's gonna be real bad."
The environment is starting to rival the second midterm election of President George W. Bush's tenure in 2006, the consultant said, amid the Iraq war and the botched response to Hurricane Katrina. Republicans lost control of both chambers after losing 30 House seats and six Senate seats."The numbers are somewhere between shitabulous and craptastic," a top Republican advising several federal races across the country told Axios. "It looks worse than 2018 now. Trump is heading to Bush 2006 levels."
State of play: More and more lately, Republican incumbents are running for cover from Trump.In Iowa, two House Republicans have switched their positions to support a war powers resolution on Iran.
Sen. Chuck Grassley, who rode the 1980 Republican wave to the Senate, and Rep. Ashley Hinson, who's running for Iowa's other Senate seat, are demanding restrictions on diesel exports.
