Ballot Measures

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

John Frank at Axios:

By the numbers: This year, voters in 41 states will have considered 159 ballot measures, with most appearing on Nov. 5, according to Ballotpedia, a tracking service.The vast majority were referred to voters by state lawmakers and commissions, while the remainder came from citizens who collected petitions to qualify.

What they're saying: The presidential election is a prime time for ballot measures because of the high turnout, said Chris Melody Fields Figueredo, the executive director at the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, a progressive group.Other factors include partisan blockages at the state level, political parties trying to turn out issue-driven voters and the Dobbs decision, which has led to a record number of abortion-related referendums.

The big picture: The referendum count is on par with even-year elections when the average number of ballot measures is 161, said Ryan Byrne at Ballotpedia.

• 10 states — including Arizona, Colorado, Florida and New York — are deciding whether to protect access to abortion or place limits on it.
• Five states and Washington, D.C., are considering overhauls to how elected leaders are picked, whether through changes to primary elections, ranked choice voting or both.
• Three states — Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota — are weighing whether to legalize marijuana.

The intrigue: Though the overall numbers are consistent, the 57 citizen-led initiatives this year are the most in a presidential election year since the 76 in 2016.

PPIC shows that Californians still have a conservative streak on crime:

Proposition 36 would allow felony charges for possessing certain drugs and for theft under $950, if the defendant has two prior drug or theft convictions. After reading the Proposition 36 ballot title and summary, 73 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, while 25 percent would vote no. In September, findings were nearly identical (71% yes, 26% no). Today, as there was last month, there is broad—and bipartisan—support for Proposition 36. Regionally, support is highest in the Inland Empire (80%) and lowest in Los Angeles (70%, 71% Orange/San Diego, 73% Central Valley, 73% San Francisco Bay Area). Two in three or more across demographic groups would vote yes on Proposition 36.

...

 Proposition 6 (Eliminates Constitutional Provision Allowing Involuntary Servitude for Incarcerated Persons). Likely voters are slightly more likely to say they would vote no (56%) than yes (41%) on this legislative constitutional amendment. Support for this measure has declined slightly since September (46% yes, 50% no).

 

Larry Elder v. Women

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall. 

Carla Marinucci at Politico:

Alexandra Datig, the former fiancee and longtime radio producer for California GOP gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder, says she broke off an 18-month engagement with the conservative talk show host in 2015 after he waved a gun at her while high on marijuana.

Datig’s claim, which she regards as the culmination of a series of humiliating disputes that made her fearful for her safety and her ability to maintain her sobriety, comes as Elder has gained momentum in the recall to replace Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, with many observers counting him as the likeliest GOP alternative should voters decide to replace the incumbent.

But little is known about Elder’s personal life. Datig portrayed him as a marijuana user who would often become threatening or insistent with her, including in his repeated demands that she get a “Larry’s Girl” tattoo to show her devotion to him.

Andrew Kaczynski, Em Steck and Drew Myers at CNN:

"Glass ceiling? Ha! What glass ceiling? Women, women exaggerate the problem of sexism," radio host Larry Elder said in a 1996 ad for his radio show.

Then a hand slaps him across the face.

"Blacks exaggerate the significance of racism," Elder adds. Another slap. "Medicare should be abolished," he continues. Slap. With each new comment, a hand slaps Elder across his face.

"What'd I say?" a grinning Elder asks as the ad concludes.

Elder has long relished making provocative comments in his time as a radio host and columnist. But now, what he previously said could complicate the Republican's campaign to win California's September 14 recall election and unseat sitting Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. His comments about women -- which have already drawn attacks from his opponents -- are coming under scrutiny. And a CNN KFile review of his comments, dating back to 1996, show a lengthy history.

 

California Tea Leaves

Even though the presidential candidates have largely bypassed the state, and despite the absence of party competition in the Senate race, turnout is likely to be high.  The Secretary of State has reported record-high voter registration, both in absolute numbers (19.4 million) and as a percentage of eligible citizens (78.04%).  Since July 7, Democratic registration has increased 7 percent, while Republican registration has gone up only 3 percent.

US Senate

In the Democrat-on-Democrat race for the United States Senate, Attorney General Kamala Harris will easily defeat Rep. Loretta Sanchez.  Both PPIC and Field show Harris leading by more than 20 points.

US House

Republicans will probably lose seats.  The Cook Political Report lists three GOP incumbent races as tossups:

• CA-10 Rep. Jeff Denham 
• CA-25 Rep. Steve Knight 
• CA-49 Rep. Darrell Issa 

In addition CA-21 (Rep. David Valadao) is only "leaning" Republican.

State Legislature

The Democrats will continue to control both chambers of the state Legislature.  The question is whether they can win the two-third supermajorities they need to raise taxes.  This year, Democrats held 52 Assembly seats and 26 Senate seats. If they keep their current seats, they need least two additional Assembly seats and one Senate seat to get to supermajorities. Half a dozen or so races in each chamber will decide the issue.  The 29th Senate district, spanning Los Angeles, Orange, and San Bernardino Counties, is especially crucial.  Indeed, it is so important that President Obama has endorsed Josh Newman, the Democratic challenger to incument Ling Ling Chang.  The president has also endorsed:

• Cheryl Cook Kallio, challenging Assemblywoman Catherine Baker (R-San Ramon) in AD 16
• Abigail Medina, who's running against Assemblyman Marc Steinorth (R-Rancho Cucamonga) in AD 40
• Al Muratsuchi, a former assemblyman in a rematch against Assemblyman David Hadley (R-Manhattan Beach) in AD 66

Ballot Measures

• Proposition 51 — School construction bonds – supported by the Chamber, opposed by Governor Brown.  It could lose. When polls show support under 50%, California ballot measures tend to go down.  PPIC has it at only 46%.
• Proposition 52 — State Fees on Hospitals. Federal Medi-Cal Matching Funds – supported by the Chamber. It will probably pass.  Field has it at 66%
• Proposition 53 — Revenue Bonds – opposed by the Chamber and Governor Brown.  There is no public polling, but Brown is worried enough that he is running ads against it.
• Proposition 55 — Tax Extension on High Wealth Individuals – opposed by the Chamber.  It will probably pass.  PPIC has it at 55% support, and Field at 59%.
• Proposition 64 — Marijuana Legalization – supported by Lieutentant Governor Newsom.  It will probably pass.  PPIC has it at 55%, Field at 57%.

Constitutionalist Agenda

At NRO, Ramesh Ponnuru and Reihan Salam write of a "constitutionalist agenda" for the GOP. They write that conservative remedies are other either fanciful (constitutional amendments) or inadequate (appoint conservative judges).

A practical constitutionalist agenda for the Congress would attempt both to strengthen constitutional principles such as federalism and the separation of powers and to habituate legislators to the idea that they have a role to play on these questions. The agenda would also illustrate how these principles would make for better government. Here are a few ideas that conservative congressmen, and presidential candidates, should be considering.

... 

• Medicaid:  "As Michael Greve has argued in The Upside-Down Constitution, the Founders envisioned a sharper division between state and federal responsibilities, a division that enabled competition and accountability. The best way to move back in that direction would be for the federal government to cash out most of its spending on Medicaid and give it to the beneficiaries to help them buy insurance in the private market. The federal government should simultaneously make it easier for states to do the same thing with most of their Medicaid spending. And the federal contributions should no longer reward states for higher spending."
• Regulation: "The REINS Act: Many Republicans have, to their credit, advocated legislation requiring a congressional vote before major regulations can take effect, and it was one of the first bills House Republicans passed when they took Congress in 2011. Republicans have mostly described the legislation as a way of safeguarding economic growth and economic liberty, but it too has a constitutional dimension: It is a means of countering the tendency of modern government to vest legislative power in unelected agencies."
• Spending: "Bring agency spending under congressional control: Another step toward reining in agencies would be to make their funding depend on Congress. Congressional power over spending — a powerful protection for self-government that predates the Constitution — has been eroded as government agencies have been given independent funding streams."
• Taxes: "Eliminate the deduction for state and local taxes: Believers in federalism should loathe the state- and local-tax deduction, which in effect transfers resources from taxpayers living in low-tax states to those living in high-tax states and, worse, raises the average state tax rate...Eliminating the deduction would also make voters in states such as New York, New Jersey, and California more tax-sensitive, as they would no longer be shielded from the full impact of their tax bills."  And it would drive these states even deeper into the Democratic column.
• Marijuana; "Allow states to go their own way on marijuana: Public opinion on marijuana is changing rapidly."