Alternatives to the Crossroads Groups

The New York Times reports on GOP outside groups arising as alternatives to the Crossroads groups.  After the disappointing 2012 results, some in the part developed a skepticism about the Crossroads brand.

Now Crossroads appears to be testing a new approach. The group has so far stayed out of Kentucky, for example, where Senator Mitch McConnell, the minority leader, is facing both a Tea Party challenger in the primary and a strong Democratic opponent. Instead, Mr. McConnell is backed by a new group called Kentuckians for Strong Leadership. Although it is legally separate from Crossroads, most of its cash came from Crossroads donors, Mr. Law sits on its board, and the two organizations share a treasurer.

Crossroads has lobbied to help set up similar groups in races where its brand may be less appealing to voters or donors, according to two Republicans with knowledge of the conversations. But Mr. Rove has grown so controversial among some conservatives, the Republicans said, that candidates worry that donors will not contribute to a super PAC if it is connected to Crossroads.

In West Virginia, Mr. Law warned supporters of Representative Shelley Moore Capito, a Republican who is a top prospect to win a Senate seat next year, that if they formed their own super PAC, Ms. Capito would not be able to count on significant support from Crossroads, according to three people with knowledge of the discussions.

But some new super PACs are choosing to work instead with a broader array of ad buyers and consultants. In private meetings with potential donors and clients, their strategists criticize Crossroads for what they call a “cookie-cutter” approach to advertisements and messaging.

Many of the upstarts are being organized by former aides and longtime supporters of the Republican candidates, who argue that they will be the best stewards of their former bosses’ political interests.

Advice to Huck

At The Daily Beast, Lloyd Green says that Mike Huckabee's religious conservatism might help in the primaries but would be problematic in the general election.  He argues that Huckabee should instead pound economic populism:

Huckabee should deliver a jeremiad lambasting Washington for its role in fostering the housing collapse and the Great Recession. He should hammer home how the government precipitated economic calamity by juicing up the housing market, and turning housing policy into a taxpayer-funded vehicle for vote-buying. And Huckabee should not hesitate to use the recent words of federal judge Jed Rakoff, who was appointed by Bill Clinton to the federal bench to make his point.

In Rakoff’s telling, “in the year 2000, HUD Secretary Andrew Cuomo increased to 50 percent the percentage of low-income mortgages that the government-sponsored entities known as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were required to purchase, helping to create the conditions that resulted in over half of all mortgages being subprime at the time the housing market began to collapse in 2007.” The judge leaves no doubt as to who is to blame.

Still, playing on resentments has its limits. Criticizing Natalie Portman for first becoming a mother and then a wife—as Huckabee did in 2011—is bad politics. According to the Pew Research Center, single mothers make up one in four households with children under 18; and, as Chris Cilizza of The Washington Post notes, they vote overwhelmingly Democratic.

So Huckabee needs to show some non-judgmental leg on modernity, and going after Portman is not the way to do it. Instead, he should also talk about launching a war on Alzheimer’s disease, as baby boomers now file through retirement. Just as FDR set in motion the March of Dimes to eradicate polio and Puritan minister Cotton Mather went after smallpox in early 18th-century Boston, Huckabee should make eliminating this malady a stated priority. If 2012 teaches the Republicans anything, it is that simply bashing Obamacare is not enough to get you to the White House.

A New Low for Obamacare

CNN reports:

Support for the country's new health care law has dropped to a record low, according to a new national poll.

And a CNN/ORC International survey released Monday also indicates that most Americans predict that the Affordable Care Act will actually result in higher prices for their own medical care.

CNN/ORC International survey full results

Only 35% of those questioned in the poll say they support the health care law, a 5-point drop in less than a month. Sixty-two percent say they oppose the law, up four points from November.

Nearly all of the newfound opposition is coming from women.

"Opposition to Obamacare rose six points among women, from 54% in November to 60% now, while opinion of the new law remained virtually unchanged among men," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "That's bad news for an administration that is reaching out to moms across the country in an effort to make Obamacare a success."

Huck 50-50 on 2016

At The Hill, Molly Hooper reports:

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (R) says there's a 50-percent chance he will run for president in 2016.

The 2008 GOP presidential contender told "Fox News Sunday" host Chris Wallace that "at this point it's 50/50" at this point that he would pursue a presidential bid.

Huckabee, who recently announced his intention to leave his nationally syndicated radio program, opted not to run for the White House in 2012.

The folksy politician explained that he "would never make this decision based on circumstances, it would be a decision of the heart."

"I've tried to be honest ... so when people ask me, are you open to the possibility? The honest answer is 'yes.' Does that mean I'm running? I don't honestly know," Huckabee said.

In a presidential race, Huckabee would have some important assets:

• He is likeable and extremely articulate on television.
• His populism and lack of Washington experience are a good fit for the public mood.
• He has a strong base of support among religious conservatives.
• The field is open. Christie has gotten the most attention but has yet to close the sale with Republicans.  (A large fraction of Iowa Republicans view him unfavorably.)

He also has some liabilities:

• His outsiderism may make it hard for him to raise money from the affluent people who fund presidential campaigns.
• His gubernatorial record -- especially on clemency -- will provide material for opposition researchers.
• Though he is usually very fluent in media interviews, he has made a disturbing number of gaffes.
• His background as an ordained minister may help in primaries but could trigger anti-evangelical prejudice in the general election.
• Conversely, his eclectic stands on economic issues could help in the general election but have already triggered strong criticism from groups such as the Club for Growth.
• What Ed Rollins reportedly told him in 2011 still applies. From Election 2012: The Battle Begins: 

"Mike, I've put all these things together for you, but you've got to do something for me—you've got to lose forty pounds,” Rollins said. “Look, I'm a fat man, you're a fat man, but I didn't write a book about how I lost a hundred pounds."

Schweitzer for President?

Chris Cillizza writes at The Washington Post:

Former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer went to Iowa Wednesday night. And, as he has a knack for doing, he made news.

“I didn’t vote for that war, and I didn’t think it was a good idea,” Schweitzer said of Iraq. “George Bush got a bunch of Democrats to go to that war, I was just shaking my head in Montana.”

There’s, of course, only one Democrat who voted for “that war” who is thinking about running for president in 2016: Hillary Clinton. Schweitzer and everyone else in the audience — and the broader political world — knew who he meant. In case you missed that, he added this gem: “Gosh, we had Bush, Bush, Bush and Clinton, Clinton and now we’re talking about a Bush or a Clinton again and I think in America we’re always looking for leadership that takes us to the future and we’re not often looking in the rear view mirror for our leadership.”

There’s a very clear reason that Schweitzer targeted Clinton. He knows that no matter how big a frontrunner Clinton is in the 2016 race, there will always be a desire on the liberal left to get behind a candidate who isn’t part of the D.C. political establishment. If that candidate isn’t Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren — and she has given every indication it won’t be – then, Schweitzer figures, why shouldn’t it be him? (“Why not me” is a surprisingly common reason for running for offices.)

AP reports that he has not yet decided...

But he noted that his rural roots may appeal to Iowa voters: "If I did run for president, I'd be the first one who came to Iowa who could tell you how many kernels of corn to plant per acre."

Visits to Iowa from Democrats eyeing the presidential race have been sparse this year, with many hopefuls watching to see whether Hillary Clinton decides to run. The former first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state would be the leading contender for the Democratic nomination.

But Iowa Democrats said that even if Clinton runs, voters will want to consider their options, possibly providing an opening for someone like Schweitzer, who has little name recognition in the state.

"Secretary Clinton is obviously very popular among Iowa Democrats. But at the same time, Iowa Democrats I can't imagine are looking for a coronation," Democratic political consultant Jeff Link said.

The Des Moines Register offers a reality check:

 But most Iowans don’t know who the heck Schweitzer is. A Des Moines Register Iowa Poll published Sunday shows 68 percent of Iowa adults of all political leanings and 70 percent of Iowa Democrats don’t know enough about Schweitzer to form an opinion.

Jerry Brown for President?

The Huffington Post reports:

Supporters of California Gov. Jerry Brown are pushing him to make a 2016 presidential bid. And though Brown hasn't confirmed the rumors, he hasn't explicitly denied them either.

When asked by The Huffington Post, Brown did not have a comment on the presidential rumors, but a representative did reference a statement he made at the California Chamber of Commerce host breakfast in May, during which Brown said "time is kind of running out on that." And polls show Brown could enjoy an easy reelection for governor in 2014.

But some argue that Brown's actions -- particularly his recent fundraising efforts -- suggest otherwise.

“Every move he’s making is the move of a presidential candidate,” said Ralph Nader, a five-time presidential candidate himself, to the Los Angeles Times. “It’s almost a blueprint.”

As KCAL9′s Dave Bryan noted, many political analysts believe a presidential run for Brown would be both unlikely and unsuccessful. But it's also not an impossibility.

"You call late December the holiday season; in the political world we call it the crazy season," he said. "That doesn't mean it can't happen."

Reasons he won't do it:

• Outside California, very people know who he is.
• His previous presidential campaigns failed badly.
• He would be older when he assumed the presidency than Reagan was when he left it.
• California really isn't doing that great.

Reason he might do it:

• He really, really, really hates the Clintons.

Even the Uninsured Dislike Obamacare

You know that the Affordable Care Act is in trouble when it faces opposition even from the uninsured.  The New York Times reports:

Americans who lack medical coverage disapprove of President Obama’s health care law at roughly the same rate as the insured, even though most say they struggle to pay for basic care, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

Fifty-three percent of the uninsured disapprove of the law, the poll found, compared with 51 percent of those who have health coverage. A third of the uninsured say the law will help them personally, but about the same number think it will hurt them, with cost a leading concern.

The widespread skepticism, even among people who are supposed to benefit from the law, underscores the political challenge facing the Obama administration as it tries to persuade millions of Americans to enroll in coverage through new online marketplaces, a crucial element of making the new law financially viable for insurers.