The Hack

At The New York Times, Eric Lipton, David E. Sanger, and Scott Shane report on how the Russians used cyberwar to help Trump:

An examination by The Times of the Russian operation — based on interviews with dozens of players targeted in the attack, intelligence officials who investigated it and Obama administration officials who deliberated over the best response — reveals a series of missed signals, slow responses and a continuing underestimation of the seriousness of the cyberattack.

...
By last summer, Democrats watched in helpless fury as their private emails and confidential documents appeared online day after day — procured by Russian intelligence agents, posted on WikiLeaks and other websites, then eagerly reported on by the American media, including The Times. Mr. Trump gleefully cited many of the purloined emails on the campaign trail.

The fallout included the resignations of Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida, the chairwoman of the D.N.C., and most of her top party aides. Leading Democrats were sidelined at the height of the campaign, silenced by revelations of embarrassing emails or consumed by the scramble to deal with the hacking. Though little-noticed by the public, confidential documents taken by the Russian hackers from the D.N.C.’s sister organization, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, turned up in congressional races in a dozen states, tainting some of them with accusations of scandal.

Swamp Thing

Isaac Arnsdorft reports at Politico:

Former government officials are lining up to vouch for ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson as Donald Trump’s secretary of state, and they all have something in common — a financial stake in the outcome.

James Baker, the George H.W. Bush secretary of state who, MSNBC reported, advised Donald Trump to pick Tillerson, is a partner at a law firm that has represented Exxon as well as Rosneft, the Russian state-owned oil company that partners with Exxon.

The Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Rosneft’s chairman, a close Vladimir Putin ally named Igor Sechin, in 2014 in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
The firm, Baker Botts (named for Baker’s great-grandfather), also represents Gazprom, the Russian state gas company.

Baker’s direct relationship with the companies isn’t clear, but his practice specializes in cross-border transactions, and as a partner in the firm, he probably profits from the range of its clients. He didn’t answer requests for comment.

Tillerson, who was formally nominated by Trump on Tuesday morning, also came recommended by former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates. They also work for Exxon through their international consulting firm, Rice Hadley Gates.

Rice and the firm also didn’t answer requests for comment. A Trump transition spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Arnsdorf also reports:

Bob Dole’s lobbying Donald Trump on Taiwan went far beyond a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan’s president.

Dole, the only past Republican presidential nominee to endorse Trump before the election, briefed the campaign’s policy director, set up meetings between campaign staff and Taiwanese emissaries, arranged for Taiwan’s delegation to attend the Republican National Convention, and helped tilt the party platform further in the island’s favor, a lobbying disclosure document filed with the Justice Department and released to POLITICO shows. He even arranged for members of Taiwan’s ruling party to take a White House tour, according to the filing.

Taiwan paid the 93-year-old Dole and his law firm, Alston & Bird, $140,000 between May and October, according to the new disclosure. His spokeswoman declined to comment.

"Why Wasn't This Brought Up Before Election?"

Unless you catch "hackers" in the act, it is very hard to determine who was doing the hacking. Why wasn't this brought up before election?

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 12, 2016

Homeland Security chair: I told Donald Trump that Russia was behind hacks 
-- CBS, October 26
Mike Pence Contradicts Trump, Says Russia Behind Hacks

-- Reuters, October 16

Trump Told Russia To Blame for Hacks Long Before Debate
-- NBC, October 11

U.S. government officially accuses Russia of hacking campaign to interfere with elections
-- Washington Post, October 7

U.S. Says Russia Directed Hacks to Influence Elections
-- New York Times, October 7

Transition Items

Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson is reportedly Trump's choice for secretary of state. Elise Viebeck reports at The Washington Post:

President-elect Donald Trump said he does not believe the CIA’s conclusion that Russia intervened in the election to help him win, attributing the assessment to Democrats who supported Hillary Clinton and claiming repeatedly that the U.S. intelligence community has “no idea” what might have happened.

“I think it’s ridiculous,” Trump said in an interview with “Fox News Sunday,” his first Sunday show appearance since the election last month. “I think it’s just another excuse. I don’t believe it . . . No, I don’t believe it at all.”

Trump also denied the importance of receiving the daily intelligence briefing, a tradition for presidents and presidents-elect. He has received the briefings only sporadically since winning the election.

“I get it when I need it,” he said. “I’m, like, a smart person. I don’t have to be told the same thing in the same words every single day for the next eight years.”

...

Trump declined to confirm whom he will name secretary of state but lavished praise on his expected pick, ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson, calling him a “world-class player” and even alluding to Tillerson’s ties to Russia, which are a source of concern for hawkish Republicans on Capitol Hill.

“He’s in charge of an oil company that’s pretty much double the size of his next serious competitor,” Trump said of Tillerson. “It’s been a company that’s been unbelievably managed. And to me, a great advantage is he knows many of the players, and he knows them well. He does massive deals in Russia. He does massive deals for the company.”

Exxon is not necessarily a conservative favorite:

• The company has given to Planned Parenthood.   
• Exxon gave a lot of money to the Clinton Global Initiative.  
• And Clinton got four times as much Exxon campaign money as Trump.

Michael Isikoff reports at Yahoo that a business and lobbying partner of Manafort is helping plan the inauguration. 

The business partner, Rick Gates, was not mentioned in the Trump transition team’s Nov. 15 public announcement naming the members of the inaugural committee. But behind the scenes Gates is serving as the chief deputy to Thomas Barrack, the private equity investor and close friend of Trump who is inaugural chairman, the sources said. One described him as in effect the “shadow” chair of the event, involved in everything from raising the $50 million to $75 million the Inaugural committee is seeking to the selection of entertainers.
...
As first reported by Yahoo News, Gates also was a co-investor with Manafort in a $26.2 million business deal with Oleg Deripaska, a billionaire Russian aluminum baron who had been barred by the FBI from entering the United States due to alleged ties to Russian organized crime. Deripaska later initiated legal action against both men in the Cayman Islands, alleging in court papers they had “simply disappeared” when his lawyers sought to liquidate their joint investment in 2014 and sought to question them about what happened to his funds.

Barrack worked for the law firm of Nixon's personal lawyer, Herb Kalmbach, Says Roger Stone, “John Dean told prosecutors that Attorney General John Mitchell had recruited California lawyer Herb Kalmbach to raise hush money for the Watergate burglars.” Kalmbach had a direct relationship with Nixon campaign aide Herbert Porter, who according to the Senate Watergate Committee Report, paid Stone to undermine the Democrats and the candidacy of anti-war Republican Pete McCloskey.In 2004, Barrack lent money to Manafort’s wife, Kathleen, secured by a lien on property belonging to the Manaforts. Manafort’s clients have also included the Lebanese arms dealer Abdul Rahman el-Assir.  In 1982, Barrack had arranged for the sale of Edwin Meese 3d’s California home while Meese was in the Reagan White House. Just five months later, the Administration appointed Barrack as a deputy undersecretary of the Interior Department. But he resigned in August 1983. During Meese’s confirmation hearings for Attorney General, Meese and Barrack each denied any connection between the Meese house sale and Barrack’s Interior Department appointment.

====================

Wendy Lee reports at Taiwan News:

Taoyuan Mayor Cheng Wen-tsan confirmed rumors that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump was considering building luxury hotels and resorts in Taiwan’s Taoyuan City, according to media reports Wednesday.

A woman working for the Trump Organization came to Taoyuan in September, declaring the company’s investment interest in Taiwan’s Taoyuan Aerotropolis, a large urban planning development project surrounding the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport. 

================
 Trump reportedly sold all his stock in June  -- just when he needed cash for legal fees and a potential settlement.  Though he has not released his tax returns, other documents strongly suggest that he is not as rich as he says, and that he has had liquidity problems.

Democrats and Environmentalists v. WWC

Josh Kraushaar writes at National Journal:

If the GOP gains in the Mid­w­est were an an­om­aly, per­haps Demo­crats could af­ford to cater to their en­vir­on­ment­al base. But this wasn’t the first time that Demo­crats lost sig­ni­fic­ant ground in the re­gion. In 2010, they lost a whop­ping 63 seats in the House in part be­cause of failed cap-and-trade le­gis­la­tion; over one-third of the seats they lost were in the Mid­w­est. Re­pub­lic­ans am­ped up their at­tacks on Obama’s en­vir­on­ment­al policies dur­ing the 2014 midterms—air­ing more than 26,000 spots cit­ing the En­vir­on­ment­al Pro­tec­tion Agency—and swept nearly every com­pet­it­ive Sen­ate race on their way to the ma­jor­ity.

Take the Key­stone XL pipeline as a stand-in for voter sen­ti­ment on the bal­ance between pro­tect­ing the en­vir­on­ment and pro­du­cing jobs. A March 2014 Pew Re­search Cen­ter poll, con­duc­ted dur­ing the Key­stone de­bate, found that a 49 per­cent plur­al­ity of Demo­crats sup­por­ted build­ing the pipeline—even though the pres­id­ent and top party lead­ers op­posed it. Among work­ing-class Demo­crats (those who made less than $50,000 a year), sup­port for the Key­stone pro­ject out­dis­tanced op­pos­i­tion by a whop­ping 22 points (54 to 32). When your party’s own voters are at odds with its elite, it’s a re­cipe for dis­aster. Don­ald Trump’s Mid­west­ern sweep was the cul­min­a­tion of these long-stand­ing trends.

Union Decline and the Election

At The Wall Street Journal, Kyle Jenkins talks to Tracie Sharp of the conservative State Policy Network:

Anyone wondering whether an advantage in the states truly matters should look at this year’s Electoral College map. In Wisconsin, union membership is down 133,000 since 2010, the year before Gov. Scott Walker’s Act 10 overhaul passed. Donald Trump’s margin of victory there? Less than 30,000. In Michigan, public-union membership is down 34,000 since 2012, the year before Gov. Rick Snyder’s right-to-work law kicked in. Mr. Trump’s margin? Only 11,000.

Ms. Sharp says she had always felt these two states were only “thinly blue,” and that the GOP has been put on better footing by the unions’ slide. “When you chip away at one of the power sources that also does a lot of get-out-the-vote,” she says, “I think that helps—for sure.”

It is not that former union members suddenly stopped voting Democratic.  Rather, they were no longer part of union mobilization and fundraising efforts.  The weakening of those efforts probably hurt Democrats in the industrial states.

Conspiracies and Other Myths

Public Policy Polling reports on a new survey:

Over the course of the campaign we found there was a cult like aspect to Trump's support, where any idea he put forth a substantial share of his supporters would go along with. We see that trend continuing post election. 60% of Trump voters think that Hillary Clinton received millions of illegal votes to only 18% who disagree with that concept and 22% who aren't sure either way.

A couple other findings related to the vote in this year's election:

-40% of Trump voters insist that he won the national popular vote to only 49% who grant that Clinton won it and 11% who aren't sure.

-Only 53% of Trump voters think that California's votes should be allowed to count in the national popular vote. 29% don't think they should be allowed to count, and another 18% are unsure.

There's been a lot of attention to the way fake news has spread and been believed especially by Trump supporters and that's borne out in our polling:

-73% of Trump voters think that George Soros is paying protesters against Trump to only 6% who think that's not true, and 21% who aren't sure one way or the other.

-14% of Trump supporters think Hillary Clinton is connected to a child sex ring run out of a Washington DC pizzeria. Another 32% aren't sure one way or another, much as the North Carolinian who went to Washington to check it out last weekend said was the case for him. Only 54% of Trump voters expressly say they don't think #Pizzagate is real.

There's also been a lot of discussion recently about how we might be in a post-fact world and we see some evidence of that coming through in our polling:

-67% of Trump voters say that unemployment increased during the Obama administration, to only 20% who say it decreased.

-Only 41% of Trump voters say that the stock market went up during the Obama administration. 39% say it went down, and another 19% say they're not sure.

Back in May, PPP polled voters with a favorable opinion of Trump:

-65% think President Obama is a Muslim, only 13% think he's a Christian.
-59% think President Obama was not born in the United States, only 23% think that he was.
-27% think vaccines cause autism, 45% don't think they do, another 29% are not sure.
-24% think Antonin Scalia was murdered, just 42% think he died naturally, another 34% are unsure.
-7% think Ted Cruz's father was involved in the assassination of JFK, 55% think he was not involved, another 38% are unsure.
And closing the loop on the greatest conspiracy theory of this election- a rare one that Trump didn't embrace- 5% of voters nationally think Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer, 18% are unsure, and 77% find Cruz not guilty of the charge of being a serial killer in diapers. So at least he has that going for him.

It is not just Trumpistas, as an October survey from Fairleigh Dickinson University showed:

Almost 90 percent of Donald Trump’s and Hillary Clinton’s supporters believe in conspiracies that smear the candidate they don’t like, even in the absence of credible evidence, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind national poll. Conspiracy beliefs unrelated to the election—such as birtherism, trutherism, and even the belief that global warming is a hoax perpetrated by scientists continue unabated.

A majority of Trump’s supporters believe that President Barack Obama is “definitely” or “possibly” hiding important information about his background and early life. Among Trump supporters, 24 percent say that Obama is “definitely” doing so, and 43 percent say it’s “possibly true.” In contrast, only 14 percent of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s supporters fit into either category. In sum, skepticism about Obama’s background among Republicans has decreased, but not significantly. In May of this year, 31 percent of Republicans said Obama was definitely hiding this information, and 39 percent said it was possible. Five months later, 21 percent of Republicans say that it’s “definitely” true, and 43 percent say that it’s possible.

“Trump’s statement that he now believes Obama was born in the U.S. doesn’t seem to have made much of an impact on Trump supporters,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and an analyst for the PublicMind poll.
...
Sixty-four percent of Americans say it’s at least possible the two major political parties rig the primary election process to make it harder for outside candidates to get the presidential nomination. Fifty-six percent of Clinton supports say that the primary system is “possibly” or “definitely” rigged, compared with 70 percent of Trump supporters.