Third Parties and Congressional Elections

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

Ally Mutnick at Politico:

House Democrats are turning to unlikely saviors to help their nominees win in difficult districts: third-party candidates.

In Montana, Ohio and Alaska, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is signaling to its allies that they should boost Libertarians or independent candidates in three targeted House races. All three seats were won by former President Donald Trump in 2020 and it will be difficult for Democrats to win them without siphoning off Trump’s voters from the GOP congressional candidate.

The DCCC previewed the strategy on messaging websites often referred to as “red boxes” — a public and legal way for them to signal outside groups under campaign finance law. The House GOP campaign arm is also asking its allies to get involved in Alaska, where the top four vote-getters advanced from the all-party primary. If no candidate gets more than 50 percent in the general election, the race proceeds to ranked-choice voting.

In Alaska, a super PAC allied with House Democrats has already answered the DCCC request. Another Democratic-aligned group has waded into Montana.

House Battlegrounds

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

Michael Blood at AP:

California has 52 House seats — more than any other state — and 10 are considered in play. About half of those are viewed as toss-ups. Democrats dominate California, holding every statewide office and outnumbering registered Republicans by a nearly 2-to-1 margin statewide. But Republicans retain pockets of strength and picked up four House seats in 2020.

The most competitive contests are concentrated in Republican-held districts that were carried by Joe Biden in 2020. Overall, Republicans hold just 12 of the state’s House seats.

Tony Aiello at CBS:

A high-stakes battle over the November ballot is playing out in New York City's northern suburbs, and a judge's decision could help decide which party controls Congress next year. It involves the Working Families Party line in the 17th Congressional District. Candidates in New York often run on multiple party lines. Democrat Mondaire Jones competed in the Working Families Party primary in June, and shockingly, he lost. Now, his supporters are asking a judge to kick the winner – an unknown named Anthony Frascone – off the ballot.

Frascone is not campaigning and isn't attending the court hearings. "They're running a shill campaign ... to influence the outcome by diluting the vote," said attorney Keith Corbett. "They're engaged in a subversion of taking away the rights of voters." Corbett says Frascone, a former Republican, is running to siphon votes away from Jones, who is locked in a tight race with Republican Mike Lawler to represent the 17th Congressional District, which includes all of Rockland and Putnam counties and parts of Westchester and Dutchess.

...

This week, Emerson College released a poll showing Mike Lawler with 45%, Mondaire Jones with 44%, and Anthony Frascone with 3% – obviously enough to influence the outcome. Lawyers for several counties say Frascone's primary victory was duly certified and it's too late to change the ballot since thousands have already been mailed.

Mychael Schnell at The Hill:

Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), the House Democrats’ campaign chief, is defending vulnerable lawmakers who have kept their distance from Vice President Harris while campaigning.

Speaking to The Hill during an interview in New York City on Wednesday, DelBene — the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) — said members in battleground districts should run their races in ways that cater to their voters, even if it breaks from the “national landscape.”

“In swing districts, and when we talk about, kind of our world, the battleground races, are these districts that were drawn to be divided. They’re purple. And so I think all of them are focused on what their communities want to see, which is who’s going to be an authentic leader for our district; who’s gonna be our voice in Congress,” DelBene said.

“And the reason that they are all elected right now is because they have been independent, authentic voices for their districts, and they’re gonna continue to do that,” she continued. “But it’s about making sure people understand where they stand, what their issues are. There’s the national landscape but they’re representing their districts, their voices for their districts.”

The comments were in response to a question about a handful of House Democrats who have not formally endorsed Harris in her bid for the White House, including Reps. Jared Golden (Maine), Mary Peltola (Alaska) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.) — all of whom represent districts former President Trump won in 2020.

Trump and GOP Committees

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses campaign finance. 

Melanie Zanona et al. at Punchbowl News:

Vice President Kamala Harris recently transferred $10 million to the DCCC. How much has former President Donald Trump given the NRCC? Not one red cent.

Trump also has yet to appear at a major fundraising event for the NRCC, leaving a huge, eight-figure hole in the committee’s budget. Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee hasn’t given to the House GOP’s campaign arm all cycle.

As Republicans have grown increasingly alarmed by their massive cash gap with Democrats, securing a Trump fundraising event has become a top priority for House GOP leaders.

 Senior House Republicans, including NRCC Chair Richard Hudson, have been privately lobbying Trump to speak at an NRCC event, according to multiple GOP sources. So far, they’ve had no luck.

Speaker Mike Johnson was planning to make an overture to Trump at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month, we’re told. But that was the day an alleged attempted assassin was caught with a gun on Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach, Fla.

Harris Shares Campaign Wealth While Trump Demands Tribute

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses party organizations and campaign finance.

Hayes Brown at MSNBC:

In a sign of just how flush her campaign is as she enters the final turn signaled by Labor Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic National Committee on Tuesday pledged $25 million toward House, Senate and state-level races. That commitment is a major investment aimed at making it easier for Harris to govern if she’s elected president. 

The $25 million being doled out includes $10 million each to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which are focused on winning back the House and keeping the Senate. Another $2.5 million will go to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which helps in state legislature races, and $1 million each to the Democratic Governors Association and the Democratic Attorneys General Association.

With former President Donald Trump atop the Republican ticket, the GOP is in the opposite position financially. If the Harris campaign is a source of cash for other Democratic candidates, then the Trump campaign is a sponge, continuing to suck up precious resources other Republican candidates need ahead of a tight election. The cash disparity could not only determine the trajectory of the presidential race, but it might also help determine the direction of the country for the next two years.

Alex Isenstadt at Politico:

Former President Donald Trump’s campaign has found a new way to press for badly needed cash.

In a letter received by Republican digital vendors this week, the Trump campaign is asking for down-ballot candidates who use his name, image and likeness in fundraising appeals to give at least 5 percent of the proceeds to the campaign.

“Beginning tomorrow, we ask that all candidates and committees who choose to use President Trump’s name, image, and likeness split a minimum of 5% of all fundraising solicitations to Trump National Committee JFC. This includes but is not limited to sending to the house file, prospecting vendors, and advertising,” Trump co-campaign managers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita wrote in the letter, which is dated April 15.

Democrats' Cash Advantage, Trump's Cash Crisis

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses party organizations and campaign finance.

Zachary Basu and Erin Doherty at Axios:

President Biden and his campaign have begun openly taunting former President Trump over the massive — and growing — disparity in fundraising between the two parties' presumptive nominees.

Why it matters: Democrats hold a staggering cash advantage over Republicans at virtually every level of national politics. And the money raised by Trump's political operation is increasingly flowing into a black hole of legal expenses.

By the numbers: The Biden campaign and the DNC ended February with more than twice as much cash on hand ($97.5 million) as Trump and the RNC ($44.8 million), according to new campaign finance reports.

• The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ($59.2 million) has $14 million more than the National Republican Congressional Committee ($45.2 million) to spend on House races.
• The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ($31.9 million) has $7 million more than the National Republican Senatorial Campaign ($24.8 million), though the NRSC out-raised its counterpart in February.

Zoom in: Trump's leadership PAC, Save America, spent more than $6.9 million on legal-related expenses last month — equivalent to a staggering $238,000 per day, according to The Daily Beast.

Maggie Haberman and Ben Protess at NYT:

Donald J. Trump is expected to spend his Monday morning in the courtroom of a New York judge who might soon preside over his criminal trial and, ultimately, throw him behind bars. And that’s not even the legal predicament that worries Mr. Trump most that day.

The hearing in his Manhattan criminal prosecution — in which he is accused of covering up a sex scandal to pave his way to the presidency — comes as he races to fend off a financial crisis arising from a $454 million judgment in another case. The New York attorney general, Letitia James, who brought that civil fraud suit against the former president and his family business, might begin to collect as soon as Monday.

To avoid a mortal threat to the Trump Organization, Mr. Trump must persuade another company to post a bond on his behalf, promising that it will cover the judgment if he loses a pending appeal and fails to pay. Yet Mr. Trump’s lawyers in court papers said that securing the bond would be a “practical impossibility,” because he would need to pledge some $550 million in cash and liquid investments as collateral to the bond company — an admission that laid bare the former president’s cash crunch.

Unless Mr. Trump strikes an 11th-hour deal, Ms. James could freeze his bank accounts, and begin the long and complicated process of seizing some of his properties. And barring Mr. Trump’s lawyers achieving an improbable legal triumph, the judge in his criminal case could set a trial date for as soon as next month.

DCCC Memo on Vulnerable GOP Incumbents

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

From DCCC:

For the first seven months of the 118th Congress, vulnerable House Republicans have voted overwhelmingly with their party and with extreme MAGA Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene. The most vulnerable Republicans in the House – those representing districts President Biden won in 2020 – vote on average nearly 94% of the time with the MAGA extremists running their party. Rather than showing independence or bipartisan leadership, these party hacks have fallen in line behind their extreme party bosses.

Despite campaign promises to be independent, these vulnerable Republicans time and time again have voted in lockstep with the most extreme MAGA Members in their party to rip away women’s reproductive freedom, cut services for veterans, defund law enforcement, gut manufacturing jobs, and uphold a culture of corruption in Washington – all while ignoring the kitchen table issues like lowering costs and creating good-paying jobs. Expect to see ties to extreme Republicans and these key issues in paid media against vulnerable Republicans next fall.

...

 Women and their families should have the freedom to make their own health care decisions, but that hasn’t stopped Republicans from waging an all-out effort to insert themselves into these private decisions. House Republicans are using any means necessary to enact their end goal of a national abortion ban, including attaching an unnecessary provision to one of their funding bills that would restrict access to the abortion medication mifepristone. This safe medication is used in 53% of all abortions in the country. And in one of their first votes at the beginning of the year, every vulnerable Republican voted in support of anti-choice legislation that could punish doctors and rip away women’s reproductive freedom.

House Dems Who Oppose the Akin Ploy

Our book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. 

In the 2012 Missouri  Senate race, incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill ran ads during the GOP primary campaign saying that Todd Akin was "too conservative."  The idea of the "attack ad" was to drive GOP voters to Akin, her weakest potential foe.  It worked.  Other campaigns have tried variations of the "pick your opponent" ploy.

Sarah Ferris and Ally Mutnick at Politico:

A growing number of House Democrats are seething at their own campaign arm for meddling in a GOP primary to promote a pro-Trump election conspiracy theorist — after months of warning that such candidates were a threat to democracy.

In public statements, private chats and complaints taken directly to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Democratic members are aghast that the committee is spending nearly half a million dollars to air ads boosting Donald Trump-endorsed John Gibbs over Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.), who voted to impeach Trump last year.

While Meijer is one of the few GOP lawmakers who voted to hold Trump accountable for his own false claims about the 2020 race, his blue-leaning seat is also a top Democratic target district this fall — and Gibbs is seen as an easier opponent to beat in November. The primary next Tuesday will kick off a three-month sprint to the general election.

“No race is worth compromising your values in that way,” said Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.), who sits on the committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and Trump’s election-subverting schemes that preceded it.

Democrats, like Murphy, fear the strategy could easily backfire, if a candidate like Gibbs were to win the general election amid a GOP wave — and the party also risks undercutting its own core message about the dangers of MAGA Republicans taking power. It could be harder for Democrats to claim that certain GOP candidates are an existential threat to the country if they are also using party money to push them closer to winning office.

Some members’ frustrations are particularly acute now, after months of simmering tensions with Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) over other issues during his tenure as chair of the DCCC.

The Akin Ploy in Michigan

Our book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. 

In the 2012 Missouri  Senate race, incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill ran ads during the GOP primary campaign saying that Todd Akin was "too conservative."  The idea of the "attack ad" was to drive GOP voters to Akin, her weakest potential foe.  It worked.  Other campaigns have tried variations of the "pick your opponent" ploy.  Even in California.

 Lachlan Markay at Axios:

National Democrats are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to boost a far-right, Trump-endorsed conspiracy theorist in one of the most closely watched House races in the country — further endangering one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Trump.

Driving the news: A new TV ad from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee portrays Republican John Gibbs as the true pro-Trump conservative in his effort to unseat Republican Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.) — aligning with Gibbs' own campaign messaging. 

• Trump endorsed Gibbs' challenge after Meijer voted to impeach the former president over his role in fomenting the Jan. 6 Capitol siege.
•  Meijer, a freshman, had been in Congress just days when he took that potentially career-ending vote.
• Now Democrats, who see Gibbs as the more beatable general election opponent, are fueling the Trump-backed effort to oust one of his few remaining GOP critics in next week's primary.

A DCCC spokesperson told Axios it plans to spend $425,000 to air the ad in the Grand Rapids market beginning Tuesday.

There are two dangers with the Akin ploy.

• When far-right candidates lose the primary, moderate winners come out stronger for the general election, as in Colorado this year.
• And the more conservative candidate could actually win the general election -- as Democrats learned in 1966 with Ronald Reagan.

Poll: Culture War Hurts Dems

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.   There are some favorable signs for Democrats in the 2022 midterms -- but energy and inflation are not currently among them.  Neither is the culture war.

Sarah Ferris and Ally Mutnick at Politico:

Democrats’ own research shows that some battleground voters think the party is “preachy,” “judgmental” and “focused on culture wars,” according to documents obtained by POLITICO.

And the party’s House campaign arm had a stark warning for Democrats: Unless they more forcefully confront the GOP’s “alarmingly potent” culture war attacks, from critical race theory to defunding the police, they risk losing significant ground to Republicans in the midterms.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is recommending a new strategy to endangered members and their teams, hoping to blunt the kinds of GOP attacks that nearly erased their majority last election and remain a huge risk ahead of November. In presentations over the past two weeks, party officials and operatives used polling and focus group findings to argue Democrats can’t simply ignore the attacks, particularly when they’re playing at a disadvantage. A generic ballot of swing districts from late January showed Democrats trailing Republicans by 4 points, according to the polling.

It wasn’t all bleak, though: The data showed that Democrats could mostly regain the ground lost to Republicans if they offered a strong rebuttal to the political hits. When faced with a “defund the police” attack, for instance, the presenters encouraged Democrats to reiterate their support for police. And on immigration, they said Democrats should deny support for “open borders or amnesty,” and talk about their efforts to keep the border safe.

If Democrats don’t answer Republican hits, the party operatives warned, the GOP’s lead on the generic ballot balloons to 14 points from 4 points — a dismal prediction for Democrats when the GOP only needs to win five seats to seize back the majority. But when voters heard a Democratic response to that hit, Republicans’ edge narrowed back down to 6 points, giving candidates more of a fighting chance, especially since those numbers don’t factor in Democrats going on the offensive

Complaints about DCCC

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.   

 Rachael Bade at Politico:

1) BOTCHED MESSAGING — Universally, we heard that there’s been too much Trump talk, not enough focus on pocketbook issues. TERRY MCAULIFFE banged the anti-Trump drum constantly on his way to losing the race for Virginia governor. But at-risk members we spoke with worry that Maloney is still embracing the Trump-as-boogeyman strategy, blasting Republicans as extreme for seeking his blessing or otherwise supporting him.

“This is crazy to me that the DCCC is rolling out a playbook that they know doesn’t work and that they encouraged people in 2018 not to use,” said the member who dropped the f-bomb to describe the situation. The person argued that in 2018, the committee gave the opposite advice — focus relentlessly on pocketbook issues and let Trump’s antics speak for themselves — and Democrats flipped more than 40 seats to take the chamber.

The messaging issues extend beyond Trump. As cases challenging Roe v. Wade have reached the Supreme Court, the DCCC has sent dozens of press releases attacking Republican candidates and lawmakers for opposing abortion rights. But one front-liner called abortion “a lightning rod” in their district — and said the DCCC should steer clear of it as a campaign issue.

“We should leave it up to Planned Parenthood and all the reproductive organizations to get in there and support candidates that are pro-choice and leave it at that,” the member, who like other vulnerable Democrats supports abortion rights, told us. “I’m not going to go out there and start bashing people for being pro-life. It would be a big mistake in my district.”

2) JAMMING THEM ON POLICY — Previous DCCC Chair CHERI BUSTOS (Ill.), who represented a Trump district, was known for pushing back on leadership in private in order to protect vulnerable members from tough votes. But Maloney has taken the opposite tack: In August, as Speaker NANCY PELOSI was trying to corral moderates to vote for a $3.5 trillion budget, the DCCC infuriated members by threatening to withhold campaign money from them if they opposed the resolution. (The DCCC denied this.)

Then this fall, Maloney routinely sided with leadership over at-risk members who wanted Pelosi to allow a stand-alone vote on the infrastructure bill. He attacked one of the members, JOSH GOTTHEIMER, on Twitter after the New Jersey Democrat criticized Pelosi for “breach[ing] her firm, public commitment” to do so.

One member relayed another anecdote to Playbook: During the fall, liberal outside groups spent millions on TV ads pressuring vulnerable House Democrats to back Build Back Better. The members pleaded with the DCCC to get the groups to back off, but committee officials refused. (The DCCC says it’s illegal for the committee to tell an outside group how to spend money.)

Selling the Infrastructure Bill

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the impact of economic issues.

Sam Stein, Tina Sfondeles and Alex Thompson at Politico:

Democrats are embarking on an aggressive comms operation in hopes of selling the president’s recent legislative achievements and reverse his plummeting approval ratings.

But what if their approach is calibrated wrong?

That question is top of mind for a slew of party operatives as they watch President JOE BIDEN and his team go out and pitch the infrastructure bill that he signed into law on Monday and the social spending package that passed the House today. In particular, there is concern that a comms strategy that relies on paid TV advertising, earned media from district visits, and local and cable interviews won’t move the dial; that the White House, and Democrats more broadly, need to find ways to penetrate media ecosystems where their critics are defining the debate for them.

“We should bring our message to audiences that don’t already agree with us. Roads and bridges are for everyone,” said Rep. SEAN PATRICK MALONEY (D-N.Y.), the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Maloney, more than any other Democrat, has been pleading with Biden to do more press. And while he acknowledged that attempts to engage conservative media could prove frustratingly fruitless — “you’re assuming Fox’s more caustic hosts would invite us on to have a respectful policy discussion” — he said it’s worth trying. “There are plenty of folks over there who I’d sit down with,” said Maloney.

The debate over how much Democrats should engage Fox News and like-minded conservative press is a perennial in the party. There is a camp, led by liberal media watchdogs, who insist it is folly; that Democrats get slandered and distorted when they go on those airwaves and that the only outcome is the legitimization of that outlet as a respectable news source.

On the other side are operatives who argue that added engagement doesn’t legitimize those outlets, but neutralizes them. They point to the successes of politicians like Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (he did a Fox News town hall in 2020) on these platforms and the losses Democrats have had with rural and white working class voters and ask: How can we win them back if we’re not talking to them? Fox News garners both the largest conservative audience and independent audience too, according to Nielsen/MRI Fusion data.

Midterm Money

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses campaign finance.

Shane Goldmacher at NYT:

A dizzying amount of money is already pouring into the battles for the House and the Senate more than a year before the 2022 elections, as Republicans are bullish on their chances to take over both chambers in the first midterm election under President Biden, given the narrow margins keeping Democrats in power.

The two parties’ main war chests for the House total a combined $128 million — more than double the sum at this point in the 2020 cycle and far surpassing every other previous one. Top House members are now raising $1 million or more per quarter. And more than two dozen senators and Senate candidates topped that threshold.

Candidate after candidate, and the parties themselves, are posting record-breaking sums, even as the shapes of most House districts nationwide remain in flux because of delays in the once-a-decade redrawing of boundaries.

In Georgia, Senator Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, raised more than $100,000 per day in the last three months for a $9.5 million haul. But his leading Republican rival, Herschel Walker, the former football player who was urged to run by former President Donald J. Trump, raised $3.7 million in a little more than a month, setting up a potentially bruising and expensive contest in that key state.

...

The country’s increasingly polarized electorate has been hyper-engaged in politics since the Trump era began, and the ease of channeling that energy into donations online is remaking how campaigns are funded. The online donation clearinghouses for the two parties, ActBlue and WinRed, processed a combined total of more than $450 million in the third quarter.

 

The NRCC has a message for Trump supporters: "You're a traitor," it begins. "Was Trump wrong about you?"

The fundraising text orders recipients to "prove your loyalty" by sending money or "be branded a deserter."https://t.co/445GoBm9Gm

— National File (@NationalFile) October 14, 2021

Maloney to Lead DCCC

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race.   Our next book, title TBA, discusses the 2020 results.

Some Democrats think that the controversy over "defunding" the police -- and other aspects of big-city progressivism -- cost their party seats in the 2020 congressional elections

Bridget Bowman at Roll Call:

House Democrats have chosen New York Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney to lead their campaign arm in 2022, and Maloney has his work cut out for him.

Maloney defeated California Rep. Tony Cárdenas in the race to chair the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, leveraging his knowledge of the committee’s inner workings and his own experience running in a competitive district. The caucus vote was 119-107.

Democrats enter the 117th Congress with their smallest majority in more than a century and face a difficult election cycle in 2022, since the president’s party typically loses House seats in midterm elections.

House districts will also be redrawn across the country to reflect population changes in the 2020 Census, and a Democratic effort to capture control of state legislatures that would control that process came up empty in November..

...
Maloney will succeed the outgoing DCCC chairwoman, Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, who almost lost her own race after Democrats faced disappointments in races across the country. Instead of adding to their House majority, it’s shrunk to single digits, and Democrats did not defeat a single House GOP incumbent.

Sarah Ferris and Ally Mutnick at Politico:

Cárdenas was vocal about reforming some of DCCC’s practices, including ending a contentious policy that banned the organization from hiring any consultant that has helped a primary challenger of a sitting Democrat — a practice that enraged progressives.

Maloney has acknowledged concerns with messaging and said he would reconsider the DCCC blacklist, though he has been mostly restrained — both publicly and privately — in his assessment of DCCC’s miscalculations.

“The smart thing for the DCCC chair to do is to say, I don't know what happened until I’ve really had a chance to dig into the numbers,” Maloney said in a recent interview.

As chair, Maloney will have an additional task of shepherding members through the decennial redistricting process, which is fraught with politics and internal bickering, particularly in states that are on track to lose a seat. Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that the Census Bureau will almost certainly not be able to release its reapportionment data in December, delaying states ability to draw new maps.

It’s entirely possible that redistricting alone creates enough red-friendly seats to place Republicans in the majority in 2022. The GOP has total control of the process in many key states, including Texas, Florida and North Carolina, which could have a combined total of 82 seats.

Alex Rogers at CNN:

When asked whether proposals from the Left -- like defunding the police and banning fracking -- hurt Democratic candidates, Maloney told CNN that the House "didn't pass a single piece of legislation that had anything to do with defunding the police" and "never pushed socialism."

"Those are caricatures that our opponents used often with great dishonesty," Maloney told CNN. "I don't plan to enhance the attack by echoing it. There are tough messages being thrown at you in every challenging election cycle. My job is not to whine about it. My job is to win."

Cárdenas campaigned on his work as chairman of the Hispanic Caucus' BOLD PAC, but the group's process to endorse California Secretary of State Alex Padilla for Vice President-elect Kamala Harris' Senate seat rubbed some members the wrong way. California Rep. Linda Sánchez, and another Hispanic Caucus member, Texas Rep. Veronica Escobar, were among those whipping Democrats to support Maloney.
"I'm supporting Sean Patrick Maloney because he has the depth of experience to remake the DCCC, and he's personally committed

 

 

House Democratic Woes and "Defund the Police"

 

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race.   Our next book, title TBA, discusses the 2020 results.

Some Democrats think that the controversy over "defunding" the police cost their party seats in the 2020 congressional elections.

Sarah Ferris, Heather Caygle, and Ally Mutnick at Politico:

A dozen races remain uncalled, and Democrats caution they won’t have all the answers for months. But many in the party are warning that the biggest priority for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee must be overhauling its message. They say it needs to craft a proactive campaign that counters GOP attacks on everything from Medicare for All to fracking — if they have any hopes of keeping their majority in 2022.

"There were ads being run all over the country about socialism and about the Green New Deal and in some parts of the country that didn’t help,” Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) said in an interview. "I think it would be irresponsible for a person in our family — in the Democratic Caucus family — who is concerned about it not to mention it."

Others were more blunt: "From my standpoint, as a moderate Democrat ... it’s crystal clear we need a different message than what we’ve been having,” added Rep. Kurt Schrader (Ore.).

Top Democrats had braced for the GOP police-focused ads. DCCC polled the issue over the summer as nationwide protests over social justice began dominating the headlines, finding it “incredibly damaging,” according to a Democratic strategist familiar with the data.

...

 Most endangered Democrats struggled to counter the flood of GOP ads on the issue: Republicans aired roughly 70 different broadcast ads that mentioned “defund the police,” according to data from Advertising Analytics, a media tracking firm.

From Ballotpedia:

In the weeks after George Floyd was killed by Minneapolis, Minnesota, police officer Derek Chauvin on May 25, 2020, nationwide demonstrations and protests were held calling for changes to policing. Officials responded by issuing executive orders and passing legislation to eliminate certain policing tactics, such as chokeholds, and implement new community policing strategies.[1][2]

This page tracks police-related local ballot measures proposed in the wake of Floyd's death that make changes related to the following policy areas:

• police oversight;
• the powers and structure of oversight commissions;
• police practices;
• law enforcement department structure and administration;
• law enforcement budgets and funding allocation;
• law enforcement training requirements; and
• body and dashboard camera footage.

Ballotpedia identified 20 local police-related ballot measures on the ballot for November 3, 2020, that qualified following the death of George Floyd.

All 20 measures were approved.

Defending the House Majority

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race. The update looks at political and demographic trends through the 2018 midterm.  Our next book will explain 2020.

Ally Mutnick ,at Politico:

House Democrats’ flagship super PAC is booking $51 million worth of TV ads this fall, a substantial investment aimed at protecting their newly won majority.

The early reservation by House Majority PAC is spread across 29 markets and offers a window into how Democrats view the size and shape of the House battlefield this fall, with massive funds slotted for Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas, according to plans shared first with POLITICO. HMP, which is closely allied with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), is the first of the major House party committees and outside groups to announce fall ad buys.

Yet this only represents a portion of the group’s total 2020 spending. The first wave focuses mostly on markets also hosting contested Senate and presidential races, where it is beneficial to lock in lower rates before the airwaves get crowded and pricey.

“It’s more important than ever to keep the Democratic House majority,” Abby Curran Horrell, the PAC’s executive director, said in a statement. “The 2020 election will be unlike any before it, presenting unique challenges and circumstances that make it even more important for our organization to take early steps that enable us to protect and expand the House majority.”

 Arit John at Los Angeles Times:

The coronavirus outbreak has forced political candidates to rethink the way they campaign, but Democrats are returning to a familiar strategy: focus on healthcare.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is spending nearly $1 million to air an ad highlighting Republican defense contractor Mike Garcia’s opposition to the Affordable Care Act ahead of a May 12 runoff to fill the remainder of former Rep. Katie Hill’s first term.

The buy — which includes cable, Spanish-language TV and digital spending — is the largest ad investment the DCCC has made in California’s 25th Congressional District this cycle. The spot began airing Saturday and will run until May 12.

Garcia is facing Democratic Assemblywoman Christy Smith of Santa Clarita in the runoff in the district, which covers Simi Valley, Porter Ranch, Santa Clarita, Palmdale and part of Lancaster.

Smith and Garcia placed first and second in a March 3 special election to complete Hill’s term, but neither captured more than 50% of the vote, leading to the runoff. They were also the leaders in a primary held on the same day to represent the district starting in January 2021, and will compete a second time in the November general election.

The 30-second spot doesn’t reference COVID-19 by name, but alludes to the crisis: Images of a paramedic treating a patient in an ambulance flash on screen as a narrator stresses the need for a leader who “will put our health and safety first” now “more than ever.”

“But Mike Garcia would let insurance companies deny coverage for preexisting conditions and hike up costs for life-saving drugs,” says the ad’s narrator.
Hill beat former Republican Rep. Steve Knight in the 2018 midterm election by 9 percentage points, joining a wave of women who helped Democrats win back control of the lower chamber.

House Fundraising: Advantage D

In Defying the Odds, we discuss campaign finance and campaign technology. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms.

Sarah Ewall-Rice at CBS:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the group that works to elect Democrats to Congress, is touting a fundraising advantage and expanding its battleground map after learning it outraised its GOP counterparts by $40 million in 2019.

The DCCC announced this week it raised $125 million last year, roughly $20 more than it raised in 2017, the last off year between elections. The fundraising was fueled by $59.6 million in grassroots contributions. At the same time, the 42 Democratic "frontline" members in competitive races raked in more than $91 million in 2019.

"We know that this gives them a huge tactical advantage in their districts because they can buy TV time at a significantly lower rate than the committee, than outside groups, than anyone else," said DCCC political director Kory Kozloski in a call with reporters. "They're going to have the resources to tell their stories in a significant way, in a way that incumbents have never had before, in a way that Democratic candidates in many cases have never had before."

Earlier this week, the National Republican Congressional Committee chair Tom Emmer revealed his committee raised $85 million in 2019, $40 million less than the DCCC. Emmer raised alarm bells to Republicans as they seek to take back the House in 2020.

2020 House Elections: Advantage D

In Defying the Odds, we discuss congressional elections as well as the presidential race.  The update  -- recently published --includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms.
.
Scott Wong and Juliegrace Brufke at The Hill:

The 2020 election is more than a year away, but some Republican lawmakers are pessimistic about their chances of winning back the House.

President Trump’s approval ratings in key swing states are under water. Infighting on the GOP leadership team and a notable retirement [Susan Brooks of Indiana, in charge of NRCC recruitment] have raised questions about the party’s campaign strategy.

And Republicans acknowledge that many of the at-risk Democratic freshmen in Trump districts are going to be difficult to beat as they resist calls for impeachment and stay focused on kitchen-table issues such as health care and infrastructure.

“It’s going to be tough. [The Democrats] have really good majority-makers — [Reps.] Abigail Spanberger, Dean Phillips, Max Rose. They’ve got some good members that know what they’re doing. They seem to not be embracing the crazy,” said one senior GOP lawmaker who requested anonymity.

“There is a path for us to take it back, but they have good candidates. They have money they are still raising left and right,” the source added. “You just don’t know if the intensity of our voters will be enough, because [Democrats] are still engaged.”

In the first three months of this year, the House Democrats’ campaign arm hauled in more than $32 million, while the GOP’s campaign operation raised $25 million.

Another GOP lawmaker said it will be hard for Republicans to make the case to voters they deserve the majority when they failed to repeal ObamaCare or fund Trump’s border wall in the last Congress when they controlled all the levers of the government.

“It would be very difficult to take back the majority when most people see it as a squandered opportunity when Republicans had the majority,” the second GOP lawmaker told The Hill.

The D-Trip Analyzes California

In Defying the Odds, we discuss congressional elections as well as the presidential race. 

Congressional districts in Orange County, Calif. in 2016 and in 2018 pic.twitter.com/TWRQ1pPzS4

— Morning Joe (@Morning_Joe) November 16, 2018

With Katie Porter’s win in the OC & now Gil Cisneros pulling ahead of Young Kim, the @CA_Dem Party will end up flipping 6 of the 7 @CAGOP House seats they targeted, which is extraordinary. In 2019, CA’s Congressional delegation will consist of 45 Democrats and just 8 Republicans.

— Doug Sovern (@SovernNation) November 16, 2018

MEMO: How the West Was Won: Historic Gains in California, After Unprecedented DCCC Investment
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2018

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Drew Godinich, DCCC Regional Press Secretary
RE: How the West Was Won: Historic Gains in California, After Unprecedented DCCC Investment

TOP POINT: The DCCC recognized early that California offered historic opportunity in our campaign to take back the House in 2018. The DCCC made unprecedentedly large and early investments, recruited aggressively, and managed complex primaries as part of a California-based winning strategy. As a result, the DCCC is on track to achieve historic wins in the Golden State – flipping every seat in Orange County and the most in California since 1962 – that outsiders did not see coming. The below memo details those efforts.

In April 2017, when the DCCC announced plans to open its first ever fully-staffed West Coast headquarters in Orange County, skeptics said that we were embarking on a fool’s errand to take down the vaunted “Orange Curtain”. But we knew we needed our team to be closest to the voters and the campaigns. In the two years since we opened our doors in Irvine, the DCCC invested millions in flipping vulnerable GOP seats in the West, directing our efforts to change California, from California.

As we await final election results, it is clear that the DCCC has exceeded outside expectations in Orange County and across California. For the twelfth election in a row, no California Democratic incumbent lost their race. And in the offensive column, with several victories already assured, and several more still too close to call, Democrats have a chance to pick up as many as seven seats in California, the most since 1962, including every seat in Orange County. We have also already secured the largest California Democratic Caucus in history, which will be critical for achieving policy wins for many years to come.

Our success in California was no accident. Instead of heeding our detractors and skeptics, the DCCC stuck to our game plan in California: recruiting a historic class of strong, diverse candidates in every district in our battlefield; investing early in field organizing and voter registration; ensuring candidates built a robust fundraising infrastructure – online and offline; and defining the Republican agenda early. At key moments – in particular, the June primary – the DCCC adopted a bold, kinetic, and in some cases completely unprecedented approach that avoided shutouts in all targeted districts.

Republicans abandoned CA-49, a marquee contest of the 2016 cycle, after the DCCC’s multi-pronged intervention in the primary secured the nomination of an unsalvageable Republican candidate in Diane Harkey. In CA-48, in a move that was considered controversial at the time, we joined with Indivisible OC 48 and backed the strongest candidate in a crowded primary field, who on November 6 scored a historic, comprehensive victory in the most Republican district in Orange County.

This is how we won the battle for California in 2018.

ALL-STAR RECRUITS

In 2016, Secretary Hillary Clinton, carried all four Republican-held congressional seats in Orange County – while low-profile Democratic candidates in three of those seats were defeated by huge margins. In 2018, Democrats recruited a historic class of candidates in every competitive seat in California – and now have the opportunity to pick up all of these seats. Democrats in the general election were overwhelmingly first-time candidates who were independent, well-funded, and fit their districts.

Katie Hill, whose deep ties to the 25th district and an established record of service in her community, resonated deeply with voters and were able to withstand the millions of dollars in outside spending. Katie Porter, who brings an expertise in consumer protection that is unparalleled nationwide. Gil Cisneros, who is prepared to take his service to the country and great fortune and pass it on to children in Orange County. Harley Rouda, who is an independent candidate that understands Orange County in his bones. These are just a few examples of the independent candidates and strong profiles of candidates who Democrats nominated to run in these competitive districts.

REDEFINING THE GROUND GAME

Just two weeks after Donald Trump was inaugurated, the DCCC had boots on the ground in districts across California, investing in local organizers earlier in the cycle than ever before. With a new generation of grassroots groups emerging in the aftermath of the 2016 election, many led by first time activists, these organizers helped equip these groups with the tools and tactics to organize and register voters. Rather than instituting a top-down approach from Washington, the DCCC decided to “arm the rebels” on the ground and forged lasting partnerships with the growing constellation of progressive groups. This early decision would yield incredible results.

In California, congressional campaigns in targeted districts registered nearly 20,000 new voters and knocked and dialed voters nearly 6 million times.Early vote totals already show record Latino engagement for a midterm election this cycle. In California, Latino share of the vote in targeted congressional seats has closely mirrored their 2016 presidential vote share, a clear departure from prior midterm cycles. In targeted congressional districts, Latinos have participated at even higher rates than the statewide increase. This was not an accident – the DCCC spent $30 million to turn out our base in this election:

• In 2017, the DCCC launched an unprecedented, long-term $30 million investment to turn out diverse voters, women, and millennials.
• The DCCC has been on the ground organizing in competitive congressional districts, especially in districts with notable Hispanic and African American populations, for more than a year.
• The DCCC has built a pipeline of diverse, local field directors and organizers from the district that look like the district and understand their communities. In California, the DCCC has invested in 11 organizers dedicated to turning out Latino voters.
• The DCCC’s first ever Training Department held workshops in Anaheim, San Diego, and Los Angeles in addition to extensive online trainings.
• The DCCC has conducted extensive focus groups with voters of color and millennials in targeted districts across the country, since 2017.
• The DCCC has been on air with district-specific Spanish-language television ads across the county, and has invested in robust and highly personalized digital ads, mail, African American & Hispanic radio, African American newspapers, text message and traditional field programs.
• In week one, the DCCC launched its first ever Spanish-language GOTV television ad campaign to get out the Hispanic vote.
• Between the DCCC’s efforts on the ground and through paid media, these base voters heard from Democrats more than 100 times in the final 60 days.

A GREEN WAVE OF FUNDRAISING — ONLINE AND OFFLINE

Democrats this cycle have raised historic sums through a wave of grassroots donations. Nowhere is that more true than California, where congressional candidates repeatedly shattered fundraising records and outraised their rivals many times over. Once again, this was no accident. The DCCC’s candidate fundraising team began working with candidates at the beginning of the cycle to ensure that campaigns had the fundraising infrastructure in place to compete – and win – in the exorbitantly expensive California television markets.

For the first time, this cycle the DCCC hired digital fundraising experts for each region – the western digital director worked directly with campaigns to advise on their online fundraising programs, putting in place systems that would allow them to take advantage of the unprecedented grassroots giving enthusiasm we saw this cycle. As the Washington Post explained, “the green wave was less an act of nature than the result of careful planning on the part of Democrats.“

As we always expected to be outspent by the other side, it was crucial that our candidates had the resources to define themselves with voters before outside Republican groups could. With an incredible $41 million raised by California candidates in targeted races this cycle, our candidates were on the air early – giving them an edge that proved critical in these tight races and allowing them to withstand the tens of millions of dollars in negative advertising aired by Republican groups.

DEFINING REPUBLICAN HEALTHCARE REPEAL AND ANTI-CALIFORNIA TAX SCAM

Voters heard early and often from the DCCC, as we defined Republican incumbents for their votes to undermine Californians’ affordable healthcare and their plans to gut Social Security and Medicare. In May of 2017, the DCCC ran radio ads in Southern California hitting 5 Republican members for their votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act. All of these districts are now poised to flip Democrat. And in October of 2017, the DCCC aired the first television ads of the cycle in California – hitting Jeff Denham and David Valadao for their votes for the Republican healthcare plan.

Shortly after the passage of the GOP Tax Scam, Republicans crowed that this was silver bullet to hold the House. But Democrats turned Republicans’ corporate giveaway dream into their election nightmare, and featured it prominently in ads across the state. The RNC even credited the DCCC for winning the messaging war and turning the tax bill into an albatross for their candidates in a memo leaked earlier this year.

As Republicans admitted, our devastatingly effective and disciplined approach to defining the tax scam relied heavily on tying it to cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Given Californians’ heavy reliance on the State and Local Tax Deduction, the DCCC and Democratic candidates made sure voters knew that Republicans were actually going to raise their taxes and cost of living. In the cradle of the Reagan Tax Revolt, Democrats flipped the script on Republicans, and defined them for their votes to raise taxes through the tax bill.

To reach the voters we knew we needed to win these tight races, in the Central Valley, the DCCC aired ads in Spanish, supplementing the work by the campaigns to reach these crucial voters. And for the first time ever, the DCCCaired Spanish GOTV ads nationwide one week before Election Day, including on Spanish broadcast in Los Angeles and Sacramento.

EXAMPLES:
(CA-10): PROMESA(CA-10): EN JUEGO LA SALUD(CA-21): CADA PASO(CA-21): NOVENTA Y NUEVE(CA-25): FITS(CA-45): TIME

PITCHING A PERFECT GAME IN THE TOP-TWO PRIMARY

The California primary represented what was arguably the most complex challenge for California Democrats this cycle, as retirements in CA-39 and CA-49 and the eleventh hour entry of Scott Baugh into the CA-48 race made the possibility of lockout in these races a real threat. The DCCC’s first-class data and analytics team did a thorough analysis of the landscape to give us an early pathway to success requiring substantial investment.

The DCCC responded to this threat immediately in January 2018, conducting a thorough data analysis to determine the strongest and weakest candidates – both Democrats and Republicans – and working to consolidate the Democratic primary fields. At the instigation of the DCCC, strong primary challengers Jay Chen and Phil Janowicz left the race in CA-39, helping clear the way for a Democratic win on primary night: polling had shown that their combined vote share would’ve assured that Democrats would be locked out of the general election in that race.

In CA-39 and CA-48, the DCCC named Gil Cisneros and Harley Rouda to the Red to Blue list, identifying them as the strongest candidates in their races. Despite a round of breathless second-guessing on Twitter, the aggressive strategy was employed in coordination with key progressive and grassroots allies who agreed that intervention was necessary.

In CA-49, the DCCC shaped the Republican primary field by eliminating Rocky Chavez as the Republican frontrunner, leaving Republicans with Diane Harkey – a weak and unsalvageable candidate, effectively ensuring that Democrats picked up this top-tier seat five months before November. It was also a clever investment, as the DCCC did not need to spend millions in the general election to pick-up the seat.

The kinetic approach undertaken by the DCCC falls in sharp contrast to that taken by the NRCC and CLF, who failed to back up their rhetoric with action and shut-out Democrats in key races. In CA-48, Scott Baugh’s candidacy represented a mortal threat to Democrats’ hopes of taking the seat – but Republicans’ decision to remain on the sidelines allowed Democrats to shape the field unchallenged. This will forever be one of the most costly and inexplicable Republican political miscalculations of the entire midterm election.

HISTORY MADE IN THE GOLDEN STATE

When we first opened our office in Orange County two years ago, our unprecedented bet in the Golden State was met with skepticism by some pundits. Republican Orange County Chair Fred Whitaker boldly declared: “Let the Democrats spend tens of millions of dollars here. Let them die on the hill in Orange County.” Even some in our own party weren’t convinced – one prominent California operative opined:

“The political landscape of California is littered with bodies of operatives from other places who thought they could come in here and achieve amazing results and they never do because they don’t understand the place”.

But if there is anything littering Orange County’s beaches today, it is the failed promises and electoral strategies of the Republicans: whether the gas tax repeal and ‘silver bullet’ of the GOP tax bill? Out with the tide – along with the Republican majority in Congress and their grasp on historically conservative regions of California.

The DCCC understood the challenges posed by this critical midterm in California, and by rising to those challenges, made history.