The 15 Largest Counties: 1988 and 2016

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the historical context of the  2016 presidential race.

One measure of change in the electorate is the performance of Republican presidential candidates in the 15 largest counties in 1988 and 2016.  On average, GOP performance dropped about 19 percent.

	1988	2016
Los Angeles CA	46.90%	22.40%	-24.50%
Cook IL (Chicago)	43.40%	20.80%	-22.60%
Harris TX (Houston)	57.00%	41.60%	-15.40%
Maricopa AZ (Phoenix)	64.90%	47.70%	-17.20%
San Diego CA	60.20%	36.60%	-23.60%
Orange CA	67.70%	42.30%	-25.40%
Miami Dade FL	55.30%	33.80%	-21.50%
Kings NY (Brooklyn)	32.60%	17.50%	-15.10%
Dallas TX	58.40%	34.30%	-24.10%
Riverside CA	59.50%	44.40%	-15.10%
Queens NY	39.70%	21.80%	-17.90%
Clark NV (Las Vegas)	56.40%	41.70%	-14.70%
King WA (Seattle)	44.80%	21.00%	-23.80%
San Bernardino CA	60.00%	41.50%	-18.50%
Tarrant TX	61.20%	51.70%	-9.50%
			-19.26%

Speaking of Bullock

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the early stages of the 2016 campaign, when many candidates were unknowns.  We are now in the early stages of the 2020 race.

Ronald L. Feinman at HNN:

Steve Bullock has been the governor of Montana since 2013, after having served four years as Montana Attorney General. He has been the chairman of the National Governor’s Association this year. He has been rated the most effective governor in the nation. He is known for environmental initiatives, measures to promote economic growth, friendly relations with labor, and cutting property taxes. He was reelected to a second term on the heels of his high poll numbers, but has had to face a Republican controlled legislature.

Bullock has supported abortion rights, campaign finance reform, marriage equality, net neutrality, and organized labor. Despite his liberal views, he was able to win reelection at the same time that Donald Trump was elected president. He has argued for the need of the Democratic Party to move beyond urban centers, and work to gain the support of suburban and rural voters, as he has been able to do in his state. He traveled to Iowa and New Hampshire in 2018, evidencing interest in a possible presidential run. Most political observers expect him to enter the race in the next few months.

Thomas Beaumont at AP:

Brown could pose a challenge to Klobuchar for that mantle. More devoutly liberal than Klobuchar on issues such as health care, Brown carries the torch of an ardently pro-labor populist, which could resonate in those pro-Trump pockets.

So could Montana’s Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, who, as he weighs a 2020 campaign, is touting not just being re-elected in a state Trump carried by 20 percentage points, but testing a message of unity as he works with a Republican legislature.

“Judging whether a candidate can win the general election will be part of the calculus voters consider,” said former Obama and Clinton adviser Jennifer Palmieri. “But it’s a mistake to think that a candidate can’t be both inspiring and electable.”

 Juana Summers and Thomas Beaumont at AP:

Bloomberg contributed $250,000 to the Iowa Democratic Party this year, giving him some claim to gains such as capturing two Republican-held House seats last month. He also has plans to meet with key Democratic operatives. But other potential candidates, including Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Sen. Kamala Harris of California and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, have been more aggressive in their efforts.

Mike Allen & Jim VandeHei at Axios:

Others, including former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Hickenlooper and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock are cooperating with magazine profiles and building a leave-behind folder for donor discussions.

BUT NOTE:

“Yeah, he’s running.” https://t.co/l8wcecVv7Q

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) December 5, 2018

FULL DISCLOSURE:  GOV. BULLOCK WAS MY STUDENT.  -- JJP

The Magnitude of Bush's 1988 Victory

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the historical context of the  2016 presidential race.

In 1988, George H.W. Bush, the 41st president, got a higher share of the popular and electoral vote than any presidential candidate since then.

                                    Popular %        Electoral Vote

1988    Bush 41           53.4                 426   79.1%

1992    Clinton, B.       43.0                 370   68.8%

1996    Clinton, B.       49.2                 379   70.4%

2000    Bush 43           47.9                 271    50.4%

2004    Bush 43           50.7                 286    53.2%

2008    Obama             52.9                 365    67.8%

2012    Obama             50.9                 332    61.7%

2016    Trump              46.0                 304    56.5%

California, Then and Now

In  Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's impact on America.

In the 1988 campaign, California was up for grabs.  Bush and Dukakis both campaigned here.  On the day before the election, Dukakis held rallies in San Francisco and  Los Angeles.

Bush won the state, 51-48 percent.  It was a modest margin, but it was also the last time to date that a Republican presidential candidate carried the state.  

Figures for the six largest counties in the state illustrate the shift between 1988 and 2016.

	Bush 1988	Trump 2016
Los Angeles	47%	22%
Orange	68%	42%
Riverside	59%	44%
San Bernardino	60%	42%
San Diego	60%	37%
Santa Clara	47%	21%

Bloomberg Money in 2018

In Defying the Odds, we discuss congressional elections as well as the presidential race.  Campaign finance is a big part of the story.

Stephanie Saul and Rachel Shorey at NYT:

Records filed so far show that organizations controlled and funded by Mr. Bloomberg spent more than $41 million on 24 House races, much of it on eye-catching ads rolled out on social media and broadcast on television in the crucial final days of the campaign.

And while it’s impossible to conclude that any one factor tipped the balance in a race, Mr. Bloomberg appears to have reaped the benefits of his millions in giving. Democrats won 21 of the 24 races he sought to influence. Of those, 12 had been considered either tossups or in Republican districts.

Since the money came directly out of Bloomberg's pocket, Bloomberg PACs did not have to spend time on fundraising.  All the attention went to the spending.

“I had a budget,’’ Mr. [Howard] Wolfson said. “It was a big budget. I didn’t have to raise it. I knew it was coming and that gave us real advantages in terms of spending late in these expensive markets. We were able to really come in and overwhelm at the last minute in some of these places.”

The group identified target districts based on a theory that highly educated voters were more likely to vote Democratic, even if they had previously voted Republican. Mr. Bloomberg’s operation hired two companies that analyzed educational achievement in Republican congressional districts, Mr. Wolfson said.

They identified districts previously ignored by national Democrats where there were opportunities to stretch the Democratic map.

One of those was Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District, where an increasingly young and well-educated electorate had been lured by jobs and the urban conveniences of Oklahoma City, and where Ms. [Kendra] Horn was running.

Trump v. Bush

In  Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's character and impact on America.

1990 Playboy interview:

Do you think George Bush is soft?

I like George Bush very much and support him and always will. But I disagree with him when he talks of a kinder, gentler America. I think if this country gets any kinder or gentler, it's literally going to cease to exist. I think if we had people from the business community--the Carl Icahns, the Ross Perots--negotiating some of our foreign policy, we'd have respect around the world. 

Bret Molina at USA Today, July 6, 2018:

When he wasn't taking shots at the media or Democrats, President Trump used his speech during a rally in Great Falls, Montana, to swipe at former president George H. W. Bush.

Following a moment where Trump talked about putting America first, he referenced "a thousand points of lights," a phrase coined by Bush during the 1988 presidential campaign.

"What the hell was that, by the way, thousand points of light? What did that mean? Does anyone know," said Trump. "I know one thing: Make America Great Again, we understand. Putting America first, we understand. Thousand points of light, I never quite got that one."

Why the Democratic Takeover of the New York State Senate is a Big National Deal

 In  Defying the Odds, we discuss  Trump's record of scandal.

There is speculation that Trump could pardon Manafort, or even himself.

But much of what they did occurred in New York, which potentially exposes them to prosecution under state law.  And presidents cannot pardon for state offenses.

In August, Michael Gormley reported at Newsday:

A Democratic bill in the Senate and Assembly to make all people pardoned by a president subject to state prosecution was introduced in April, but they haven’t moved out of their initial committees since then. The Senate bill doesn’t have a sponsor in the chamber’s Republican majority, which would be required to advance it. The Republican majority didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment Thursday.

A case brought under state law would have to contend with prohibitions under the U.S. Constitution and state constitution against “double jeopardy” — being tried for the same crime twice. However, if a person is pardoned for a federal crime, state prosecutors may argue that they weren’t convicted of any identical state crime, so they would still be subject to enforcement of state law, supporters of the measure have argued.

“Closing the double jeopardy loophole would allow our state to preserve its right to go after violations of New York law regardless of whether a federal pardon is issued,” said Sen. Todd Kaminsky (D-Long Beach), a former federal prosecutor. “It is common sense and basic fairness.”

State Attorney General Barbara Underwood, who in investigating Trump’s New York-based foundation, called the bill a top priority in May.

Incoming Attorney General Letitia James agrees with the idea, as does Governor Cuomo. 

But as long as the GOP effectively controlled the State Senate, there was no chance that any such bill would become law.

On Election Day, Democrats swept to power in the chamber.