A Millionaire Tax?

 Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.  It includes a discussion of tax issues.

Trump has reportedly floated the idea of raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans. Emily Brooks at The Hill:

Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist, who has long worked to have politicians sign pledges to not raise taxes, said that Trump called him to ask his opinion about the matter on Wednesday.

“I told him I thought that it was a job killer, that it was bad for the economy, that it was political death,” Norquist said, reminding him of the many times he promised to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent. And suggestions from staff to the contrary, Norquist said, would not serve him politically.

“That’s what Darman did to Bush,” Norquist said, referencing the Office of Management and Budget director for former President George H.W. Bush — who lost reelection after making the promise, “Read my lips: no new taxes,” before agreeing to tax increases.

“That’s kind of a disgusting thing for a staffer to do to a president, is to tell him to go out and change his mind and say, ‘Oh, I lied when I ran for office,’” Norquist added.

Trump referenced the infamous Bush quote in a Truth Social post on Friday when he said Republicans should “probably not” raise on those pulling multi-million-dollar incomes, musing that Democrats could use it against Republicans.

But Trump also said it was not that broken promise that lost Bush in 1992: “NO, Ross Perot cost him the Election!” Trump said, referencing the independent presidential candidate who pulled nearly 19 percent of the popular vote.

 

Along with Newt, Grover has been warning against this move for some time. 

Reading Trump's Lips

 Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.  It includes a discussion of tax issues.

I received an interesting note from the President. pic.twitter.com/cGQvDrhwWU

— Newt Gingrich (@newtgingrich) April 22, 2025

We lived through this scenario with George HW bush and Dick Darman. https://t.co/4A7jdXQjGK

— Grover Norquist (@GroverNorquist) April 18, 2025

2015: Trump recalls the Bush “read my lips” broken tax promise. pic.twitter.com/rcQw4oh08v

— John Kartch (@johnkartch) April 16, 2025

Trumpworld October

Our book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. 

This open appeal to racism by a Republican senator would make George Wallace and Lester Maddox proud. You don’t have to be a Southerner like me to understand that “they” is Tuberville’s substitute for a racial slur he can’t say behind a microphone in 2022. https://t.co/0LFS3s4fw8

— Joe Scarborough (@JoeNBC) October 9, 2022

He actually is getting worse https://t.co/VHRW8TzLsN

— George Conway🌻 (@gtconway3d) October 9, 2022

Michael Flynn says Putin and his Security Council Dep Medvedev are “bold leaders who have everything at stake in terms of protecting their country,” and Zelensky is a “foolish person, a dangerous fool.” pic.twitter.com/JBwy1ssEdk

— Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦 (@RonFilipkowski) October 9, 2022

And just as it is looking as if Ukraine might win the war outright...

In “a peaceful end to this war”, Trump probably means giving #Putin the regions he illegally annexed and call it a day. I can’t even imagine how worse the situation could have been if he was still in power #Russia #Ukraine https://t.co/c4ue86pJmd

— Nadav Pollak (@NadavPollak) October 9, 2022

And Gym Jordan's crack staff at House Judiciary:

 

"I’m a bit sleepy tonight but when I wake up I’m going death con 3 [sic] on Jewish people," said Kanye West. "You guys have toyed with me and tried to blackball anyone [who] opposes your agenda."#KanyeWest | #Yehttps://t.co/SDR1t6jknf

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) October 9, 2022

For GOP Pols, Trump Trumps Family

I missed out on the @georgepbush swag yesterday: The koozie says "this is the only Bush that likes me. This is the Bush that got it right. I like him" - Donald Trump #txlege pic.twitter.com/pFTzQCmoRG

— Scott Braddock (@scottbraddock) June 3, 2021

Mike Pence’s own brother (GOP Rep. Greg Pence) is opposing the Capitol riot commission https://t.co/kpT7V7EZqt

— Amanda Terkel (@aterkel) May 19, 2021

The Permission Ramp Gets Sturdier

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well underway. 

  An unusual aspect of the campaign is the number of high-profile Republicans supporting Biden.


Camilo Montoya-Galvez at CBS:

Republican aides who worked in the George W. Bush administration and for the late Senator John McCain and Mitt Romney vouched their support for 2020 Democratic nominee Joe Biden on Thursday, joining other GOP officials in rejecting President Trump's reelection campaign on the final day of the Republican National Convention.

...

"Given the incumbent president's lack of competent leadership, his efforts to aggravate rather than bridge divisions among Americans, and his failure to uphold American values, we believe the election of former Vice President Biden is clearly in the national interest," more than 100 former McCain staffers wrote in a public letter.

Romney's former staffers were more forceful in their rebuke of Mr. Trump, saying that while some of them voted for him in 2016, they are all now worried about the GOP transforming into a "toxic personality cult" under the president's leadership. Romney himself has frequently crossed the White House since arriving in the Senate, and was the only GOP senator to vote to convict Mr. Trump in his impeachment trial.

"Since 2017, the results of that disastrous decision have been on full display for the world to see. Now, with a pandemic crippling our economy and strangling our national spirit, every corner of America is suffering at the hands of President Trump's erratic, inept, self-absorbed governing style," more than 30 former Romney aides wrote in their letter.

...
"Joe's kindness is sorely needed right now. He famously treats the train operator with the same dignity as his fellow senators. As former public servants, we believe that decency in government must not be allowed to die on the vine," 230 Bush alumni wrote in their letter. "We must take a stand and insist that it returns to the Office of the President."

Presidential Address

In Un-American: The Fake Patriotism of Donald J. Trump, I discuss the president's character.

There is mounting pressure inside the White House for President Trump to make a formal address to the nation from the White House amid the chaos and unrest erupting across the United States, sources tell me & @Santucci

— Katherine Faulders (@KFaulders) May 31, 2020

George H.W. Bush addressed the nation in the wake of the 1992 Los Angeles riot.  It did not help his public standing.  His Gallup approval rating ticked down from 42 percent to 40 percent.

Jack Nelson in The Baltimore Sun, May 5, 1992:

The Los Angeles riots have sharply reduced support for President Bush, according to a new nationwide poll that shows him drawing only 33 percent of the vote in a three-man trial run, locked in a virtual dead heat with Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton and Texas billionaire Ross Perot.

Mr. Clinton and Mr. Perot each drew 30 percent of the vote in the Times Mirror poll, which was released yesterday. The survey of 1,301 respondents, conducted Wednesday -- the day the riots erupted -- through Sunday, has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Only two weeks ago a U.S. News & World Report poll gave Mr. Bush significant leads over both Mr. Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, and Mr. Perot, who now is widely expected to run as an independent candidate. That poll gave Mr. Bush 40 percent, Mr. Clinton, 29 percent, and Mr. Perot, 24 percent.

The Times Mirror poll also showed a statistical dead heat in a two-man race with Mr. Bush drawing 46 percent to Mr. Clinton's 43 percent.

Robin Toner in The New York Times, May 11, 1992:

President Bush, who pledged his commitment to the stricken neighborhoods of Los Angeles last week, was given poor marks by both blacks and whites for his response to the riots. Moreover, 53 percent of all the whites who took part in the survey and 76 percent of all the blacks said they disapproved of the way Mr. Bush was handling race relations in general.

Reuters report in The Los Angeles Times, May 12, 1992:

President Bush’s public approval ratings and his standing with voters have slumped since the Los Angeles riots, a CNN-Gallup poll said Monday.

The new telephone poll of more than 1,000 people showed Bush with 35% of the vote to 30% for Ross Perot and 29% for Bill Clinton, if the vote were held today. That Bush lead is far narrower than in previous polls, CNN said.

Since early April, Bush has lost nine percentage points while Perot and Clinton have climbed in voters’ eyes, according to the poll, which had a margin of error of three percentage points. The President’s favorability rating declined to 50% while his unfavorable rating hit 46%, CNN said.

Trump's Tepid Rally Effect

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign.  The update  -- recently published --includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms.  In 2020, a good economy could tip the election in Trump's favor.  A bad economy would drag him down. Coronavirus threatens the economy -- as well as American lives.

Jacqueline Alemany at The Washington Post:

President Trump is seeing a small spike in public support in the face of the coronavirus crisis: Six in 10 Americans say they approve of the job he's doing to combat the pandemic, and his approval rating is back up to match the highest in his presidency, according to a new Gallup poll.

By the numbers: Trump is seeing what Gallup calls a “fairly sudden increase” in job approval ratings — and among independents and Democrats no less. These dynamics — which Gallup senior editor Jeffrey M. Jones calls “both highly unusual for Trump in particular” — signal a boost amid the outbreak, which has infected nearly 55,000 and claimed the lives of more than 700 people in the U.S. as of this morning, despite efforts to slow the spread.

• Forty-nine percent of U.S. adults, up from 44 percent earlier this month, approve of the job Trump is doing as president. As Gallup notes, Trump also saw 49% job approval ratings in late January and early February around the Senate impeachment trial that resulted in his acquittal.
• Trump's job approval ratings are up 8 points among independents and 6 points among Democrats in the poll conducted March 13-22, compared to earlier in the month.
• The 60 percent of Americans who approve of his response to coronavirus crisis includes 94 percent of Republicans, 60 percent of independents and 27 percent of Democrats. 38 percent of Americans say they disapprove of his response.

The numbers are striking especially since many public health experts, medical professionals and Democrats have criticized Trump for a delayed and disorganized initial response to the coronavirus crisis – including struggling to ramp up testing capacity and downplaying the severity of the early threat and potential for massive crisis.

In keeping with past trends: “Historically, presidential job approval has increased when the nation is under threat,” according to Jones. “Every president from Franklin Roosevelt through George W. Bush saw their approval rating surge at least 10 points after a significant national event of this kind. [George W.] Bush's 35-point increase after 9/11 is the most notable rally effect on record. During these rallies, independents and supporters of the opposing party to the president typically show heightened support for the commander in chief.”

David W. Moore, Gallup, September 24, 2001
:

Note that this spike occurred before Bush even started military action against the terrorists in Afghanistan on October 7.

Partisan polarization is part of the reason for Trump's limited rally.  Obama got only a modest bounce after the killing of bin Laden.

Foreign Affairs for Personal Gain

In Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's dishonesty and his record of disregarding the rule of law.     The update  -- recently published --includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. Impeachment is becoming likely.

Peter Baker at NYT:

One day in October 1992, four Republican congressmen showed up in the Oval Office with an audacious recommendation. President George Bush was losing his re-election race, and they told him the only way to win was to hammer his challenger Bill Clinton’s patriotism for protesting the Vietnam War while in London and visiting Moscow as a young man.

Mr. Bush was largely on board with that approach. But what came next crossed the line, as far as he and his team were concerned. “They wanted us to contact the Russians or the British to seek information on Bill Clinton’s trip to Moscow,” James A. Baker III, Mr. Bush’s White House chief of staff, wrote in a memo later that day. “I said we absolutely could not do that.”

President Trump insists he and his attorney general did nothing wrong by seeking damaging information about his domestic opponents from Ukraine, Australia, Italy and Britain or by publicly calling on China to investigate his most prominent Democratic challenger. But for every other White House in the modern era, Republican and Democratic, the idea of enlisting help from foreign powers for political advantage was seen as unwise and politically dangerous, if not unprincipled.

A survey of 10 former White House chiefs of staff under Presidents Ronald Reagan, Bush, Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama found that none recalled any circumstance under which the White House had solicited or accepted political help from other countries, and all said they would have considered the very idea out of bounds.

Meanwhile, Trump is selling out American allies to a country with which he has business ties. Brett McGurk, a former diplomat who served under Trump:

The WH statement tonight on Syria after Trump spoke with Erdogan demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of anything happening on the ground. The “United States” is not holding any ISIS detainees. They are all being held by the SDF, which Trump just served up to Turkey. pic.twitter.com/vYr7j0q6mR

— Brett McGurk (@brett_mcgurk) October 7, 2019

“ 'I have a little conflict of interest ’cause I have a major, major building in Istanbul,' Trump said last year. 'It’s a tremendously successful job. It’s called Trump Towers—two towers, instead of one, not the usual one, it’s two.' ”https://t.co/ezMoO25eVD

— Walter Shaub (@waltshaub) October 7, 2019

Here’s video I found of Ivanka and Donald Trump in Turkey talking about how Jared Kushner is there doing business with them. #TrumpPressuredUkraine pic.twitter.com/mnPx6EBtbb

— Scott Dworkin (@funder) October 7, 2019

The 15 Largest Counties: 1988 and 2016

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the historical context of the  2016 presidential race.

One measure of change in the electorate is the performance of Republican presidential candidates in the 15 largest counties in 1988 and 2016.  On average, GOP performance dropped about 19 percent.

	1988	2016
Los Angeles CA	46.90%	22.40%	-24.50%
Cook IL (Chicago)	43.40%	20.80%	-22.60%
Harris TX (Houston)	57.00%	41.60%	-15.40%
Maricopa AZ (Phoenix)	64.90%	47.70%	-17.20%
San Diego CA	60.20%	36.60%	-23.60%
Orange CA	67.70%	42.30%	-25.40%
Miami Dade FL	55.30%	33.80%	-21.50%
Kings NY (Brooklyn)	32.60%	17.50%	-15.10%
Dallas TX	58.40%	34.30%	-24.10%
Riverside CA	59.50%	44.40%	-15.10%
Queens NY	39.70%	21.80%	-17.90%
Clark NV (Las Vegas)	56.40%	41.70%	-14.70%
King WA (Seattle)	44.80%	21.00%	-23.80%
San Bernardino CA	60.00%	41.50%	-18.50%
Tarrant TX	61.20%	51.70%	-9.50%
			-19.26%

The Magnitude of Bush's 1988 Victory

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the historical context of the  2016 presidential race.

In 1988, George H.W. Bush, the 41st president, got a higher share of the popular and electoral vote than any presidential candidate since then.

                                    Popular %        Electoral Vote

1988    Bush 41           53.4                 426   79.1%

1992    Clinton, B.       43.0                 370   68.8%

1996    Clinton, B.       49.2                 379   70.4%

2000    Bush 43           47.9                 271    50.4%

2004    Bush 43           50.7                 286    53.2%

2008    Obama             52.9                 365    67.8%

2012    Obama             50.9                 332    61.7%

2016    Trump              46.0                 304    56.5%

Trump v. Bush

In  Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's character and impact on America.

1990 Playboy interview:

Do you think George Bush is soft?

I like George Bush very much and support him and always will. But I disagree with him when he talks of a kinder, gentler America. I think if this country gets any kinder or gentler, it's literally going to cease to exist. I think if we had people from the business community--the Carl Icahns, the Ross Perots--negotiating some of our foreign policy, we'd have respect around the world. 

Bret Molina at USA Today, July 6, 2018:

When he wasn't taking shots at the media or Democrats, President Trump used his speech during a rally in Great Falls, Montana, to swipe at former president George H. W. Bush.

Following a moment where Trump talked about putting America first, he referenced "a thousand points of lights," a phrase coined by Bush during the 1988 presidential campaign.

"What the hell was that, by the way, thousand points of light? What did that mean? Does anyone know," said Trump. "I know one thing: Make America Great Again, we understand. Putting America first, we understand. Thousand points of light, I never quite got that one."

"Mission Accomplished"

Margaret Talev at Bloomberg:

President Donald Trump declared “Mission Accomplished!” hours after joint strikes on Syria by the U.S. and key allies, inviting immediate comparisons to President George W. Bush’s early, misplaced optimism about the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.

“A perfectly executed strike last night,” Trump said in a Twitter message. “Thank you to France and the United Kingdom for their wisdom and the power of their fine military. Could not have had a better result. Mission accomplished!”

Um...I would have recommended ending this tweet with not those two words. https://t.co/h5Fl7kjea6

— Ari Fleischer (@AriFleischer) April 14, 2018

On August 27, 2013, Newt Gingrich wrote:

News that the United States is considering a military strike on Syria in response to the Bashar al-Assad regime's suspected use of chemical weapons suggests we could soon see an American bombing campaign on the war-torn country.

The atrocities that took place in Syria recently, such as those that have been taking place there for almost two years, are deplorable and inhuman.

Before bombing Syria over the regime's latest crimes, however, we should stand back and ask, "And then what?"

A brief bombing campaign in Syria might make the United States and its allies feel like they are doing something, but it will prove nothing.

We have already abstained from getting involved in the civil war for two years and have chosen not to respond to evidence (albeit less clear) of another chemical attack this year.

We have already concluded that as terrible as the civil war is, it cannot be our war. The bombing will not change this -- and then what?

Inheriting a Mess

Trump just said: "I inherited a mess. At home and abroad. A mess.... no matter where you look, a disaster... we'll take care of it. I just wanted to let you know- a mess."

• And at home, we were facing a financial crisis that just about every credible economist said had the potential to plunge us into another great depression, an economic crisis that was producing stagnant wages, falling incomes, and a shaken middle class, and a deficit crisis that was saddling our children with a mountain of debt. That's what we inherited when we came in. -- Barack Obama, September 29, 2010.
• "We inherited a recession. The first three quarters of my Presidency were negative growth. That means it's a recession." -- George W. Bush, August 24, 2002
• "Now they want to hold us accountable for all the messes that we inherited from them. At least we can hold them accountable for the decisions they've taken in the last 21 months." -- Bill Clinton, November 7, 1994
• "Who can remember any other time in this country when we faced double-digit inflation, a trillion-dollar debt, 21 1/2-percent interest rates, and the highest peacetime tax burden in our history, all at the same time? Yet, that's exactly the situation that we inherited 20 months ago." -- Ronald Reagan, October 6, 1982
• "I said 2 years ago that we would remove fraud, waste, and corruption from the Government, and we are doing it-not overnight; it took a long time to create the mess that we inherited and we can't eliminate it in 1 year." -- Jimmy Carter, September 27, 1978
• "Why have they [prices] gone up? Very simply: because the previous administration, over a period of years, had spent far more than the tax system would produce with full employment. And when you do that, when you have runaway spending in Washington, you have runaway prices at home. And I say, let's get the big spenders out of Washington and get the savers into Washington." -- Richard Nixon, October 19, 1970 
• The times demand that all of us solve problems which at times appear to some of us to be unsolvable, problems that we inherited, problems that are thrust upon us by years of injustice and years of neglect. -- Lyndon Johnson, June 10, 1968

Prescott Bush's Comments on McCarthy Also Fit Trump

On December 1, 1954, Senator Prescott Bush (R-CT), the father of President George H.W. Bush and grandfather of President George W. Bush, explained why he was voting for the censure of Senator Joseph McCarthy:

He has caused dangerous divisions among the American people because of his attitude, and the attitude he has encouraged among his followers, that there can be no honest differences of opinion with him.  Either you must follow Senator McCarthy blindly, not daring to express any doubts or disagreements about his actions, or in his eyes you must be a Communist, a Communist sympathizer, or a fool who has been duped by the Communist line.

Congressional Record (bound), December 1, 1954, 16268.

1988 and 2016

Larry Sabato writes:

The remarkable thing is that Obama was unable to transfer enough of this popularity to Clinton, his chosen successor, despite the dramatic improvement in the devastated economy he inherited in January 2009. Consider the 1988 election as a comparison: According to Gallup, Ronald Reagan had a 51% approval rating in late October 1988, but the incumbent was a key factor — maybe the key factor — in Vice President George H.W. Bush’s 53%-46% victory over Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis.

Sean Trende and David Byler write about the South at RealClearPolitics:

...Clinton ran well ahead of Obama in Mega Cities (and there are quite a few in this region), though she “wasted” a lot of these votes in Atlanta. Everywhere else was a bit of a disappointment. She only tied Obama in large cities (though this is still ahead of Bill’s performances in the region), but ran behind Obama (and Bill) everywhere else. In large towns, she ran about even with Michael Dukakis, and in rural counties and small towns, she ran behind Dukakis by significant amounts. Again, rural counties and towns don’t cast a lot of votes standing alone, but they do add up.

... 

From 1988-1996, the Democrats’ coalition was well balanced. Bill Clinton basically took the Dukakis vote, and tacked on 10 points across the board. But beginning with Al Gore, the distributions are increasingly skewed toward the mega cities. The gains there are significant, but they aren’t enough to offset the losses in rural areas.

...'
As of 1988, the Democrats had a robust coalition in the South. They showed strength across Appalachia, in the “black belt” (named for the fertile soil), and in the Rio Grande Valley. Southern Louisiana (Catholics) and Arkansas outside the traditionally red northwest portion of the state were blue. Republicans, by contrast, were strong in the historically Republican areas of southeastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, and western North Carolina. They also held the cities, as metro areas like Miami, Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, and Northern Virginia were all purple-to-red.

...
In summary: In 2009, we identified the outlines of what would become a Democratic problem: weakness among traditionally Democratic voters in rural areas and towns. In 2016, this weakness became significant enough that it overwhelmed Democratic strength in urban areas in two states that President Obama had won. As we saw above, this is significant, because while urban areas are growing, they are growing at a slower rate than many analysts seem to appreciate.

And the Midwest:

As you can see, the Massachusetts governor performed well in the region, especially in the western division. This is in part because of the farm recession, but as we’ll see, it wasn’t limited to this. We note Democratic strength in eastern Ohio, which is part of Appalachia, along the Lake Erie coast (reflecting the strength in old industrial cities), in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and in the Balkans (a rural, yet ethnically diverse section of southeastern Kansas). But in general, it is difficult to identify any particular home for the Democratic Party here. Democrats perform well in all sorts of places. This helped Dukakis carry Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, while coming close in South Dakota, Missouri and Illinois.

...

 Again, the Democratic decline in rural areas is apparent, although Clinton performed worse than any Democrat since 1988 in almost every area (and worse even than Dukakis in rural and small-town areas)...

As late as 1996, Bill Clinton ran strong in [Ohio portion of] Appalachia, and dominated in the industrial Northeast and along Lake Erie. The state had strong east/west and north/south splits that gradually disappeared over the course of the decades. In 2016, Democrats ran strong in Lucas (Toledo), Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Summit (Akron), Athens (Ohio University), Franklin (Columbus) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) counties. Again, these are significant prizes. But the drop-off in rural areas and the towns looks much like it does in the southern region, with Clinton running almost 15 points behind Dukakis in the rural areas, and about 10 points behind him in the towns...

During the summer, Dukakis told Slate's Isaac Chotiner:

My first convention was in Los Angeles in 1960 with Jack Kennedy. [Laughs.] So I go back a long way. We had a very good convention in 1988 and this was a very good convention. But my demise demonstrates pretty clearly that you can have a great convention and get beat.

The People Don't Like Trump

Gallup reports:

President-elect Donald Trump approaches Inauguration Day with a significantly lower favorable rating than his three immediate predecessors received when they were presidents-elect. Trump's 40% favorable rating is roughly half of what Barack Obama enjoyed before his inauguration in 2009 (78%) and is much lower than the pre-inaugural ratings for George W. Bush (62%) and Bill Clinton (66%).

The latest findings were collected in a Jan. 4-8 Gallup poll.

Of the four most recent incoming presidents, Trump is the only president-elect whose unfavorable rating outweighs his favorable score; a majority of 55% of Americans hold a negative view of Trump, compared with 18% who did so for Obama, 26% for Clinton and 36% for Bush. Gallup has asked favorable and unfavorable ratings for key figures in this format since 1992, so only comparisons to Clinton, Bush and Obama are available.

Trump's latest favorable rating -- along with his post-election November and December ratings -- remains slightly higher than during the course of the presidential campaign, when it never rose above 38%, including 34% in the week before the election. The three previous presidents-elect also saw improvement in their images after winning the election. Obama's favorable image increased 16 percentage points, Clinton's rose 15 points and Bush's seven points between Gallup's final pre-election poll and its last pre-inauguration poll in prior transfers of power.

Don't Unpack

At The Atlantic, Ron Brownstein writes:

Except for 1988, when George H.W. Bush prevailed after two terms of Ronald Reagan, neither side has held the White House for more than eight consecutive years since 1952. (That’s despite the fact that Democrats since 1992 have now twice won the popular vote in three consecutive elections.)

And while Republicans are understandably euphoric that they will control the White House and both congressional chambers next year, neither party since 1968 has maintained such unified control for more than four consecutive years, a far more rapid turnover than in earlier generations. History suggests the best advice for Republicans now celebrating their unified control might be three simple words: Don’t unpack everything.

Bush Continues to Weigh Down the GOP

Gallup reports:

As Barack Obama's two-term presidency enters its final months, more Americans still blame George W. Bush than Obama for the nation's economic ills. When asked how much they blame each president for current economic problems, 64% of Americans say Bush deserves a "great deal" or "moderate amount" of blame, compared with 50% for Obama.

Trump, Bush 41, and Abortion Penalties

At Bloomberg, Kevin Cirilli reports on an MSNBC town hall:

“I am pro-life,” Trump said. Asked how a ban would actually work, Trump said, “Well, you go back to a position like they had where they would perhaps go to illegal places but we have to ban it,” Trump said.

Matthews then pressed Trump on whether he believes there should be punishment for abortion if it were illegal.

“There has to be some form of punishment,” Trump said. “For the woman?” Matthews asked. “Yeah,” Trump said, nodding.

Trump said the punishment would “have to be determined.”

I am writing a book on the 1988 election, so this story sparked a memory

The issue came up at the first debate between Bush and Dukakis (September 25, 1988).  Ann Groer of The Orlando Sentinel got to the point:

GROER: Yes. Mr. Vice President, I'd like to stay with abortion for just a moment if I might. Over the years you have expressed several positions, while opposing nearly all forms of government payment for it. You now say that you support abortion only in cases of rape, incest, or threat to a mother's life, and you also support a constitutional amendment that if ratified would outlaw most abortions. But if abortions were to become illegal again, do you think that the women who defy the law and have them anyway, as they did before it was okayed by the Supreme Court, and the doctors who perform them should go to jail?

BUSH: I haven't sorted out the penalties. But I do know, I do know that I oppose abortion. And I favor adoption. And if we can get this law changed, everybody should make the extraordinary effort to take these kids that are unwanted and sometimes aborted, take the - let them come to birth, and then put them in a family where they will be loved. And you see, yes, my position has evolved. And it's continuing to evolve, and it's evolving in favor of life. And I have had a couple of exceptions that I support - rape, incest and the life of the mother. Sometimes people feel a little uncomfortable talking about this, but it's much clearer for me now. As I've seen abortions sometimes used as a birth control device, for heavens sakes. See the millions of these killings accumulate, and this is one where you can have an honest difference of opinion. We certainly do. But no, I'm for the sanctity of life, and once that illegality is established, then we can come to grips with the penalty side, and of course there's got to be some penalties to enforce the law, whatever they may be.

AP reported the next day:

Bush's campaign chairman James A. Baker III, meanwhile, sought to deflect any repercussions from the vice president's assertion in the debate that he hadn't decided whether women who obtain abortions should face legal penalties.

Baker said Bush, an opponent of abortion, believes that only those who perform the operations, not the patients, should be prosecuted.

After stressing strong anti-abortion views during the debate, he said, Bush decided on further reflection that women who obtain abortions should be regarded as "additional victims" rather than criminals.

"After thinking about it overnight, we went in and discussed it this morning and concluded it was an issue that should be addressed and we addressed it," Baker told reporters.

Bush told a debate questioner that "I haven't sorted out the penalties" he would impose under a constitutional amendment he seeks to outlaw abortions.

". . . I'm for the sanctity of life and, once that illegality is established, then we can come to grips with the penalty side and, of course, there's got to be some penalties to enforce the law whatever they may be," Bush said.

Dukakis immediately responded that Bush was "prepared to brand a woman a criminal for making that decision. It's as simple as that."

That exchange left the issue an "open question" that needed to be clarified, Baker said.

Early Voting in Primaries

Shane Goldmacher and Marc Caputo report at Politico:

Florida and Ohio, the two biggest winner-take-all prizes on the presidential primary calendar in March, aren’t waiting until next month to vote. They’re voting now — and with potentially profound consequences for the 2016 campaign.

Struggling to survive until their home states’ votes are tallied March 15, Ohio’s John Kasich and Floridians Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are racing to bank tens of thousands of early ballots that are increasingly being cast well before primary day.

... 

 In Florida, nearly 850,000 Republican absentee ballots have so far been requested. Almost 43,000 Floridians have already voted, roughly 25,000 of them Republicans.

...
As Bush and Rubio are busy working the absentee system to carve up Florida’s 99 delegates the main beneficiary of their in-state rivalry might be Ted Cruz or Donald Trump, who continue to outpoll the rest of the field.

But in Ohio, the dynamics could benefit Kasich. Polling stations there open for early in-person voting on Wednesday and Kasich appears to have the state all to himself to collect early ballots and get a jump on Ohio’s 66 delegates.

...

In Florida and beyond, Bush is getting on-the-ground help from Right to Rise, his super PAC, which is sending mailers to frequent absentee voters. "This is a long and expensive process and early voting makes it even harder for candidates with limited resources to compete,” said Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the Bush super PAC. "Some candidates will have a hard time living hand to mouth with a condensed calendar and multiple states voting at the same time."

The Rubio-backing Conservative Solutions super PAC is doing no similar work.