Larry the Counterproductive

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the impact of social issues.  It also discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall. 

Carla Marinucci and colleagues at Politico:

THE BUZZ — GOD’S GIFT TO GAVIN? GOP gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder has become a campaign gift to Gavin Newsom — with some Republicans suggesting the talk show host has actually become “counterproductive” to the recall drive.

Elder last week set off a firestorm by uttering out loud the sentiment that every major GOP recall candidate had studiously avoided. Speaking of Sen. Dianne Feinstein on fellow conservative Mark Levin’s radio show, Elder claimed that “nobody’s seen [her] in weeks,” and suggested the 88-year-old senator is in “even worse mental condition than Joe Biden.”

“They’re afraid I'm going to replace her with a Republican — which I most certainly would do,” Elder said. “And that would be an earthquake in Washington, D.C."

Elder’s comments immediately became a fundraising focal point for Democrats — and prompted some on social media to suggest Elder had just sunk the recall movement. But Elder was right on this point: few statements can fire up the party’s base like the threat of Republicans flipping the U.S. Senate — and Newsom immediately jumped on it. incumbent opponent plenty of material. Take the case of Texas’ restrictive new abortion legislation: When anti-abortion activist Lila Rose tweeted that Elder promised a litany of actions to put the brakes on legal abortion in California, Elder, pressed by the Sac Bee’s Lara Korte this weekend, failed to refute that tweet and then had his security team block Korte from further follow-ups.

Over the weekend, Elder told conservative pundit Candace Owens that slave owners are “owed reparations” and said sex education has “no place“ in California schools. And CNN reported that Elder once admitted being accused twice of sexual harassment, saying that one of his accusers was too ugly to be credible.

THE FALLOUT: The stumbles have led recall campaign leader Orrin Heatlie, the former Yolo County sheriff's sergeant, to tell POLITICO this week that Elder’s entry has been “counterproductive” to the grassroots recall movement. “I rejected his candidacy from the get-go, because he’s so far outspoken on the extreme,’’ he said.

If Elder was deliberately trying to toss the recall back to Newsom, what would he do differently? 🤦‍♂️ https://t.co/GgUyS4g1dU

— Ron Nehring (@RonNehring) September 7, 2021

The Recall and the Big Lie

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the impact of social issues.  It also discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall. 

Hailey Branson-Potts at LAT:

The Republican-backed recall election could not be more consequential for California. Set amid a deadly wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, with record-breaking wildfires and a relentless drought drying fields and faucets, it gives the GOP its best shot in over a decade at governing the nation’s most populous state.

And if there’s a symbolic heart of recall mania, it may be here in Amador County in the Sierra foothills, where about 1 in 5 registered voters signed petitions to give Newsom the boot. That’s the highest concentration in California.

The most fervent support for the recall has come from Northern California, where rural conservatives say that their voices are drowned out in Sacramento by urban Democrats and that they would be better off seceding to form their own state called Jefferson.

Conservatives talk about the recall effort through the lens of Trump’s lies that he won the 2020 election. By and large, they refuse to cast their ballots by mail, believing his false claims that mail-in voting leads to rampant voter fraud. If Newsom prevails, many won’t trust the results — just as they didn’t after Trump lost.

In Newsom, they have found an avatar for the Democratic Party and everything they hate about it — a political entity in opposition to many of the things they hold dear, including (and sometimes especially) Trump.

“In many ways, the recall was never really about Gavin Newsom in particular,” said Kim Nalder, a political science professor at Cal State Sacramento.

Elder is encouraging this attitude:

 

Elder urges supporters to report ‘anything suspicious’ in California recall election https://t.co/3nSugaPZU5

— Fox News (@FoxNews) September 5, 2021

Larry Elder, the Oppo Gold Mine

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the impact of social issues.  It also discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall. 

 James Rainey at LAT:

Within 24 hours of Donald Trump riding down that golden escalator into the heart of America’s political consciousness, Larry Elder once recalled, he had the reality TV star pegged as the next president. He urged his radio audience: “We ought to get behind him.”

Two years into the Trump presidency, Elder sounded rhapsodic about the choice he and other Americans made. “The election of Donald Trump in 2016, in my opinion, was divine intervention,” he told an audience of conservatives gathered at a Rancho Palos Verdes resort in 2019. “It was a miracle. He is almost God-sent.”

Elder sounds decidedly more guarded about Trump these days, as the longtime Los Angeles radio host leads 45 other challengers in the race to replace Gavin Newsom, should Californians vote to recall the governor on Sept. 14.

Brie Stimson at Fox News:

Larry Elder, a gubernatorial candidate in California’s Gavin Newsom recall election, said he would replace U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, with a Republican – if Elder becomes governor and Feinstein were to step down during his term.

"God forbid Gov. Elder should replace Dianne Feinstein who nobody’s seen in weeks," Elder told Mark Levin on his radio show Friday. "I'm told she has a worse mental condition than even Joe Biden. They're afraid I'm would replace her with a Republican — which I most certainly would do and that would be an earthquake in Washington D.C."

 Andrew Kaczynski and Em Steck at CNN:

Larry Elder, a radio talk show host and the top Republican candidate in California's recall election, disclosed in 2011 episodes of his radio show that he had twice been accused of sexual harassment and forcefully denied the allegations.

In one instance, Elder recounted that, while he worked in private practice as an attorney in the 1980s, his employee accused him of hitting on her. Elder then defended himself by implying the woman was too unattractive for him to sexually harass.

"This woman who tried to break the contract, not to compete and then accused me of hitting on her," Elder said in one episode. "That's how, that's how she put it. If you had seen her, you would know that the picture would be a complete defense. I'm just saying."

Elder later said the claim, made while he owned and operated a legal executive search firm in the 1980s, was false and said the woman backed down when he threatened to sue her for defamation.

Trumpists, Conspiracy Theorists, and Antivaxxers

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie.  

And other lies, too.

Peter Stone at The Guardian:

Top loyalists to Donald Trump, who frequently push lies about election fraud, have joined forces with conservative doctors touting unproven Covid cures and vaccine skepticism, and like-minded evangelical ministers at a series of events across the US this summer.

The conservative “ReAwaken America” tour – featuring ex-general Michael Flynn and top Donald Trump loyalist donors – has held events in Florida, Michigan and other states.

It underscores how Trump’s allies, anti-vaccine doctors and conservative preachers are amplifying baseless claims that are hurting the nation’s public health and its democracy with potentially far-reaching impacts, say pandemic and election experts.

The tour comes as Covid cases soar and as Republican drives to pass state laws weakening voting rights increase. While the tour has touted Flynn’s key role, a Tulsa Oklahoma media figure and Christian entrepreneur named Clay Clark has been instrumental in orchestrating the gatherings – also dubbed “health and freedom” conferences – using his “ThriveTime” podcast and radio show and Charisma News coverage.

 

This is a full view of the board behind Michael Flynn and Mike Lindell. (2/2) pic.twitter.com/SYw5wqSE8e

— PatriotTakes 🇺🇸 (@patriottakes) July 6, 2021

As I pointed out on my autism politics blog, the list includes familiar figures from the antivax movement:

• Del Bigtree
• Rashad [sic, Rashid] Buttar
• Charleen [sic, Charlene] Bollinger
• Robert Kennedy, Jr.
• Judy Mikovits
• Sherry [sic, Sherri] Tenpenny
• Dr. [Andrew] Wakefield

There may be others whose names are too hard to read in the photograph.

Elder and Abortion

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the impact of social issues.  It also discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall. 

From PPIC:

With the special election to recall Governor Gavin Newsom less than two weeks away, the share of California likely voters who say they would remove Newsom still falls short of a majority, while about half of likely voters do not currently have a choice for a replacement. Solid majorities of Californians favor requiring proof of COVID-19 vaccination to enter large outdoor gatherings or certain indoor spaces. These are among the key findings of a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California.

(Note: As a companion piece to the new survey, PPIC is publishing a blog post by president and CEO Mark Baldassare, “Key Opinion Shifts in California’s Recall Election.”)

Among California likely voters, 39 percent would vote yes to remove Newsom, while 58 percent would vote no. The share saying they would vote yes is the same as on prior PPIC Statewide Surveys in March (40%) and May (40%). Fifty-three percent of likely voters approve of how Newsom is handling his job as governor, similar to levels throughout 2021 so far.

Asked about replacement candidates on the recall ballot, about half of likely voters say either that they favor no one or wouldn’t vote (25%) or that they are still unsure (24%). Among likely voters, one-quarter (26%) would choose Larry Elder. He is followed by Kevin Faulconer (5%), John Cox (3%), Kevin Kiley (3%), and Caitlyn Jenner (1%).

 

If tweet from anti-abortion activist @LilaGraceRose is true, then @LarryElder pretty much did a 180 on abortion in 24 hours. Yesterday, in press conference, he insisted changing abortion laws in CA is "not anything that's on my priority list." https://t.co/FHbDKuIq1b

— Carla Marinucci (@cmarinucci) September 2, 2021

Abortion Script Flips

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the impact of social issues.

Alex Seitz-Wald and Sahil Kapur at NBC:

Virginia was once at the forefront of anti-abortion efforts, going to the Supreme Court to defend its right to prosecute a newspaper publisher for running an ad promoting abortion.

But today, Democrats are betting that voters in the modern-day Old Dominion will keep them in the governor's office to defend abortion rights after the Supreme Court tipped its hand on the hot-button issue Wednesday.

From Virginia to California, Democrats are trying to motivate voters as the expanded conservative majority on the court inches closer to limiting or overturning the right to terminate a pregnancy for the first time in nearly half a century. It is a glimpse into America’s shifting politics of abortion, which have typically energized conservatives more.

Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic former governor of Virginia who is running for a second term, was already airing TV ads about abortion before the court allowed Texas’ strict new law, which bans abortion after six weeks, to go into effect Wednesday. (Virginia bars governors from serving consecutive terms.)

...

 

MaddowBlog: Virginia's Glenn Youngkin says he can't tell voters his true beliefs about abortion, but he'll go "on the offensive" once in office. https://t.co/cytN4IC2oO

— MSNBC (@MSNBC) July 11, 2021

Early Signs in the Recall Election

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall. 

Seema Mehta and Melanie Mason at LAT:

With the recall election less than two weeks away, the mail ballot returns so far show that more than twice as many Democrats have voted than Republicans and that liberal areas of the state such as the Bay Area have the highest rates of return, according to state officials and political data researchers.

The early numbers provide good news for Gov. Gavin Newsom. But they also show his weaknesses and what his campaign must do between now and election day on Sept. 14 — turn out young and Latino voters — key parts of the coalition he needs to stay in office but notoriously difficult populations to mobilize in nonpresidential elections.

...

These numbers represent a snapshot in time: Nearly 4.7 million Californians have cast ballots. The returns show that Democrats are turning out in high numbers — 2.5 million have cast ballots, compared with more than 1.1 million Republicans. Los Angeles County, the largest in the state, is lagging — 16.5% of voters have returned ballots, compared with rates in the high 20s in counties like Marin, San Francisco and Sonoma. Voters in the purple suburbs of cities like Los Angeles are also highly represented.

Polling showed that Democrats are less motivated to vote than Republicans but the healthy numbers show that Democrats “are not unenthusiastic,” said Robb Korinke, a principal with Grassroots Lab, a public affairs firm that conducts research on state and local governments. “They’re certainly not asleep.”